Army vs. Louisiana TechFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJoe Aillet Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 7 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 29 |
| LT | 7 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 47.5 −105
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 58.7-point 2026 scoring/allowed blend sits 11.2 points above 47.5, a 23.5% projection edge.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-7 on this game · −44% return
- Game total under 47−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Board- Army's three-game 2026 sample averages 33.35 seconds/play, -20.3% PROE, 15.4% explosiveness and 59.1% success: efficient but deliberate.
- Louisiana Tech's three-game sample is only 42.9% successful; its two FBS games produced 14 and 19 points, while the 6.42-second FCS row is a pace outlier.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech's +8.2% PROE and Army's +0.07 defensive EPA/play average create enough efficient possessions for 48 or more.
Long Way Home- Army's first three games show 9.7%-18.6% pass rates and 29.95-35.5 seconds per play, a clock-draining profile.
- Louisiana Tech's FBS offense posted -0.09 EPA/play versus Baylor and -0.62 versus LSU, with 1.75 and 0.47 points per drive.
- Most likely loss: Army's efficient offense turns limited possessions into explosive scores, while Louisiana Tech contributes enough to clear 47.
- Army Black Knights spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA matchup differential: +0.67 per play for Army.
- Army success rate 60.6% vs Louisiana Tech 40.9%: +19.7 percentage points.
- Spread range is 1 to 3 points across books, exceeding the high-conviction 1.5-point threshold.
- Army has only three games in the current-season sample.
- Game total over 47.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 58.7-point 2026 scoring/allowed blend sits 11.2 points above 47.5, a 23.5% projection edge.
- Army and Louisiana Tech are 6-4 and 7-3 to the over across their latest 10 priced games.
- 2026 over rates are 2-3 Army and 3-3 Louisiana Tech; L5 rates are 3-5 and 4-5.
- The 2026 scoring sample is only three games per team, and blowouts of 59 and 80 inflate the blend.
- Game total under 48.5 (half-point, no push; exact-48 mass 2.868%)−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 48.5 wins on exactly 48; under 48 only pushes.
- ProphetX quotes under 48.5 at 56.90¢ versus under 48 at 55.56¢; the gap is only 1.34¢.
- The 11,020-game distribution is broad historical CFB data, not Army, Louisiana Tech-specific.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs spread −1+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Louisiana Tech -1 pushes on an exact 1-point win; adjacent -1.5 loses.
- ProphetX prices -1 at -101 (50.25¢) versus -1.5 at +103 (49.26¢): only a 0.99¢ rung adjustment.
- This is not a projection claim: Louisiana Tech loses if it ties or loses, and wins only by 2+; exact-one outcomes push.
- Army Black Knights spread +3.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number density: the Army +3 to +3.5 quote step is only 2.22 percentage points, while the CFB histogram contains 998 exact 3-point margins.
- Army’s 2026 offense averages +0.36 EPA/play versus Louisiana Tech’s -0.02; Army’s latest PFF offense grade is 92.4 versus 64.2.
- Army is 2-1 with a +18.7 recent scoring margin; Louisiana Tech is 1-2 with +8.7, supporting a competitive Army-side projection.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech wins by 4 or more; Army’s 62.6 PFF defense grade leaves room for a Bulldogs offensive conversion.
Show all 9 picks
- Army Black Knights first-half spread over 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1,853 completed 2024, 25 CFB games produce SD_full 14.77; sqrt-half SD is 10.44.
- Live score is 7, 7; season efficiency plus the live tie conservatively projects Army’s final first-half mean at +0.5.
- Pinnacle’s pregame Louisiana Tech -1 scales to Army -0.5 at halftime, keeping the +0.5 projection within one point.
- No independent first-half sharp quote; this is a derived-reference projection and capped at LEAN.
- Jalen Mickens anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +155 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3-for-3 scoring a touchdown in his 2026 appearances.
- Four touchdowns across those three games, via both rushing and receiving.
- Role-weighted model estimates 52% versus +155 implied 39.2%: 12.8-point value margin.
- Only three current appearances, not a full ten-game sample; touchdown rate can regress.
- Army Black Knights to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army's current-season game-advantage sample averages +0.25 offensive EPA/play; Louisiana Tech averages -0.02.
- Army is 2-1 over its last three with a +18.7 average margin; Louisiana Tech is 1-2 with +8.7.
- Pinnacle also lists Army at -106 on the same moneyline; ProphetX offers Army +102, a favorable direction and price discrepancy.
- Army's numbers include Bryant, while Louisiana Tech faced LSU and Baylor; opponent-strength adjustment is uncertain.
Questions
Who won Army vs. Louisiana Tech?
Louisiana Tech won 31-29 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.