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Cincinnati vs. ArizonaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCasino Del Sol Stadium
Cincinnati4–0
7–34Final
Arizona3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
CIN00077
ARIZ73141034

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 55.5 51¢

Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX prices under 55.5 at 50.5¢ (-102) versus under 55 at 49.5¢ (+102), only a 1.0-point quote gap.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-16 on this game · −72% return

  1. Cincinnati Bearcats to winLong shot5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket

    5 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner +3
    Why 5 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Cincinnati enters 4-0; Arizona is 3-1, while the market prices Arizona near 70.5%.
    D1 Winner
    • Efficiency leans Cincinnati: recent offensive EPA/play +0.2288 versus Arizona +0.2031; PFF overall grade 91.2 versus 90.8.
    • Arizona's recent success rate is .5223 versus Cincinnati's .5032; Noah Fifita has 11 TD through four games.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 73/100 (Grade B); estimated qualifying edge.
    • Cincinnati is 4-0 straight up this season and has covered 3 of 4 current-season DK spreads.
    • The 10-game straight-up sample is only 5-5, below the 60% preferred consistency threshold.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages favor Cincinnati's defense: -0.0076 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Arizona's +0.1056; Cincinnati offense is +0.2110 EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.2089.
    • Both teams clear the full CFB data tier with three 2026 FBS games in the comparison; Cincinnati's success rate is .501 and explosive rate .144.
    • The projection relies on only three FBS games per team; opponent adjustment and early-season variance are substantial.
  2. Cincinnati Bearcats spread +73 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency gap favors Cincinnati: current four-game offense averages +0.307 EPA/play versus Arizona +0.224; defenses allow -0.064 versus -0.042 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's home field and superior current scoring defense turn its efficiency edge into an eight-point-or-more win.
    Key Number CFB
    • Cincinnati leads 2026 offense EPA/play 0.307, 0.224 and success rate 54.6%, 52.6%; its defense is slightly better too.
    • PFF’s latest 2026 overall grades favor Cincinnati 91.2, 90.8; latest boxes and a fresh preview identify JC French and Noah Fifita as the quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona wins by 8 or more; exactly 7 is a push, not a win.
    Long Way Home
    • Cincinnati averages +0.307 offensive EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.224 across four 2026 games.
    • Cincinnati leads current-season success rate 54.6%, 52.6% and points per drive 3.64, 2.68; defensive EPA allowed is nearly even (-0.051 vs -0.042).
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's home field and 52.6% success rate turn its offensive advantage into an eight-point-or-larger win.
  3. Over 55.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 134.25 combined current-season plays project about 20.5 possessions; garbage-time-adjusted PPD centers the total near 57.
    • Most likely loss: red-zone stalls leave a high-play-count game at 55 points or fewer.
  4. Ismail Mahdi over 48.5 rushing yards
    0%Push

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 10 appearances cleared 48.5 rushing yards.
    • The -114 price implies 53.3%; the 60% recent-hit model clears it by 6.7 points.
    • His recent clears include 63, 68, 53, 93, 61 and 91 rushing yards.
    • His two 2026 results are 63 and 9 yards, showing early-season workload volatility.
  5. JC French IV over 196.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 10 appearances cleared 196.5 passing yards.
    • The -114 price implies 53.3%; the 60% recent-hit model clears it by 6.7 points.
    • His four 2026 games produced 165, 309, 245 and 54 passing yards, establishing substantial upside.
    • His 2026 average is 193.3 yards, just below this line.
  6. 1Q total over 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent points-per-drive averages are 2.68 for Arizona and 3.64 for Cincinnati across four games.
    • Recent drive counts average 11.5 for Arizona and 11.0 for Cincinnati, supporting roughly 15, 16 projected first-quarter points.
    • Clean pace readings are about 27.9 seconds per play for Arizona and 28.7 for Cincinnati after excluding Cincinnati's clear 2.77-second data anomaly.
    • A first quarter has roughly five possessions per team, so one explosive play, turnover, or missed kick can move the result by a full score.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Game total under 55.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices under 55.5 at 50.5¢ (-102) versus under 55 at 49.5¢ (+102), only a 1.0-point quote gap.
    • CFB finals from 2014-25 hit exactly 55 total points 395 times, a 3.809% exact-total frequency.
    • Under 55.5 wins on exactly 55; adjacent whole-number under 55 only pushes there, so this half-point contract captures the 3.809% mass as wins.
    • The 3.809% figure is league-wide 2014-25 history, not a matchup-specific total model.
  2. Arizona Wildcats spread −7, pushes if Arizona wins by exactly 7 (historical exact-7 margin mass 7.82%)
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona -7 pushes on an exact 7-point win; Arizona -7.5 loses on that outcome.
    • Arizona -7 loses by 8 or more; an exact 7 returns stake rather than producing a win.
  3. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +26300

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
  4. Arizona Wildcats to winFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three-game FBS sample: Arizona offense +0.2358 EPA/play versus Cincinnati defense allowing -0.0076, a +0.2434 matchup gap.
    • Cincinnati's offense is +0.2110 EPA/play versus Arizona defense allowing +0.1291, only a +0.0819 gap; Arizona owns the cleaner efficiency matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's +0.2110 offensive EPA/play converts against Arizona's permissive defense and JC French IV keeps the Bearcats within the game or wins outright.
  5. Game total over 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The immediately higher 58.5 over rung is only +110, so the 1.5-point protection costs five cents despite the lower rung being materially more likely.
    • PROJECTION support: current FBS-only offenses average 33.3 Cincinnati points and 31.0 Arizona points; both teams are near 14.5% explosive rate.
    • Four current-game rows show positive offensive EPA for both teams; Cincinnati's offense is +0.211 EPA/play and Arizona's is +0.209 on the FBS subset.
    • Only three FBS rows per team after excluding the FCS games; early-season efficiency and scoring samples remain thin.
  6. Cincinnati Bearcats wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates Cincinnati at roughly 37% versus a 31.3% devigged Kalshi three-way reference.
    • Cincinnati's recent offensive EPA/play is 0.301 versus Arizona's defensive EPA allowed of -0.051.
    • Cincinnati's recent success rate is 54.6%, with a similar 15.0% explosive rate to Arizona's 14.7%.
    • Four-game samples are thin, and Cincinnati's 62-point Western Carolina result inflates its recent efficiency.
  7. Game first-half total over 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1, 4: each team logged 23 first-half drives; 5.75 each, 6.04 plays/drive, and 28.30 blended seconds/play support roughly 11.5 drives.
    • Historical first-half scoring across these eight team-games averaged only 17.3 points per paired matchup; full-game PPD may be opponent-sensitive.
  8. Game total over 52.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX’s live 52.5 total is three points below the captured 55.5 pregame market.
    • Cincinnati trails 7-0 after seven offensive plays, creating a plausible pass-heavy comeback script.
    • The most likely loss is Cincinnati’s offense remains ineffective and Arizona controls a low-scoring game.

Questions

Who won Cincinnati vs. Arizona?

The Arizona won 34–7 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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