Eastern Washington vs. UC DavisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUC Davis Health Stadium
Eastern Washington1–4
38–49Final
UC Davis3–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAST | 6 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 38 |
| UC | 14 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUC Davis −10 spread (push at exactly 10; 4.252% historical exact-margin mass) 53¢
Why House Rules likes it: UC Davis -10 pushes at exactly a 10-point win; -10.5 loses there.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −25% return
- UC Davis Aggies to win+33%Won
Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- UC Davis grades 90.6 overall versus Eastern Washington’s 76.2 and enters 3-2 versus 1-4.
- No current injury designations were on file, so late availability news remains unknown before kickoff.
D1 Winner- UC Davis PFF grade 90.6 overall, 84.3 defense, and 77.3 offense; Eastern Washington grades 76.2, 72.1, and 69.1.
- Efficiency and market families converge on UC Davis; home venue adds situational support.
- Only two to three 2026 games have charted opponent-adjusted advanced data; early-season estimates remain noisy.
- UC Davis −10 spread (push at exactly 10; 4.252% historical exact-margin mass)+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UC Davis -10 pushes at exactly a 10-point win; -10.5 loses there.
- 441 of 10,371 CFB finals had an exact 10-point margin: 4.252% empirical push mass (2014, 25).
- ProphetX prices -10 at 53.27¢ versus -10.5 at 53.05¢, only 0.22¢ apart and wrong-way.
- The 4.252% rate is all-CFB historical mass, not a matchup-specific projection.
- Eastern Washington Eagles spread +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair spread: UC Davis -7.0, 2.5 points less than the posted -9.5.
- Eastern Washington's season offense EPA/play is -0.095 versus UC Davis defensive EPA allowed +0.507.
- UC Davis' offense is weaker at -0.184 EPA/play; EWU's defense has allowed +0.208 EPA/play, the better side of this matchup.
- The efficiency sample is thin: only two current-season advanced-stat rows per team are populated.
- Eastern Washington Eagles to win−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EWU has already reached the UC Davis red-zone area and produced a field goal, showing early offensive viability despite the 14-3 deficit.
- Most likely loss: UC Davis converts the 14-3 early lead into sustained control and EWU cannot score enough to recover.
- Eastern Washington Eagles spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eastern Washington's current offensive EPA is -0.095 per play versus UC Davis at -0.184; success rates are nearly identical, 39.9% versus 39.8%.
- Eastern Washington's defensive EPA allowed is +0.198 per play versus UC Davis at +0.507, a 0.309-play gap favoring the underdog's ability to stay within the number.
- The warehouse score history shows UC Davis losses by 40 and 46, while Eastern Washington's recent losses to Cal Poly and Northern Iowa opponents were materially tighter; my rough margin is UC Davis by about four.
- Most likely loss: UC Davis converts its 11.3% explosive-play rate against Eastern Washington's 8.6% and wins by eight or more at home.
Questions
Who won Eastern Washington vs. UC Davis?
The UC Davis won 49–38 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.