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Indiana vs. RutgersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSHI Stadium
Indiana4-0
47–15Final
Rutgers1-3
Score by period
Team1234T
IU1013141047
RUTG007815

Top model pick, graded

Won

Indiana Hoosiers −24.5 −105

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade: 72/100 (Grade B), clearing the 70-point bar.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-11 on this game · −23% return

  1. Indiana Hoosiers spread −244 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Indiana -24 is 51.92¢; $1,813 is offered at that quote.
    • Indiana averages +0.43 offensive EPA/play versus Rutgers +0.16; defensive EPA allowed is -0.06 versus +0.03.
    • Most likely loss: Rutgers stays within 23; an exact-24 finish pushes rather than wins.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages: Indiana +0.40 EPA/play offense versus Rutgers +0.10.
    • Indiana allows -0.01 EPA/play versus Rutgers allowing +0.21; success rate is .545 versus .473.
    • Only three FBS games per team inform the comparison; opponent quality and the 56% estimate are uncertain, with no simulation run.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game sample: Indiana offense averages +0.43 EPA/play versus Rutgers defense allowing +0.03; the pairing creates a +0.40 EPA gap.
    • Counter matchup also favors Indiana: Rutgers averages +0.16 offensive EPA/play versus Indiana allowing -0.06, a +0.22 Indiana defensive edge.
    • Most likely loss: Rutgers' 29.1-second pace and +13.2% PROE create enough possessions for a backdoor cover inside 24.
    Long Way Home
    • Indiana's four-game margins average +33.75; Rutgers' average +5.25; the raw gap is 28.5 points.
    • EPA/play favors Indiana: +0.43 offense versus Rutgers' +0.16; defensive EPA allowed is -0.06 versus +0.03.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana leads comfortably, but Rutgers scores late for a backdoor cover.
  2. Rutgers +24.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  3. Rutgers Scarlet Knights to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw Kalshi YES 0.06 is a fraction, so the actionable price is 6¢; status is actively trading.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's efficiency edge overwhelms Rutgers; Indiana averages 0.43 EPA/play and 4.14 points/drive versus Rutgers 0.14 and 3.00.
  4. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread NO 17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,507 completed 2024, 26 non-preseason CFB games produced margin SD 15.77; square-root half scaling gives first-half SD 11.15.
    • At the exact 17.5 rung, the model gives Indiana 17 or fewer first-half points of margin 66.3%; Kalshi raw YES mid is 0.38 fraction, so NO is a 63c buy.
    • the adjacent Kalshi ladder is directionally consistent with the same mean-plus-SD distribution; no cross-rung price was used as an independent reference.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; opponent quality and first-half scoring are not directly observed.
  5. Game total under 58
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana’s four-game offense averages +0.43 EPA/play; Rutgers’ defense allows -0.06, a large matchup advantage but not an automatic shootout.
    • Rutgers’ four-game offense averages +0.14 EPA/play against Indiana’s -0.06 defensive EPA allowed; explosive rates favor Indiana 18.1% to Rutgers 12.6%.
    • Combined offensive pace averages 30.6 seconds/play; Rutgers’ +13.3% PROE is offset by Indiana’s near-neutral 0.1% PROE.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana’s efficient offense converts its mismatch into 40-plus points while Rutgers adds enough late scoring to reach 59.
  6. Indiana Hoosiers −24.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade: 72/100 (Grade B), clearing the 70-point bar.
    • style predictor projects Indiana by 26.9; the 2.44-point gap is about 10% versus the posted 24.5 line.
    • Indiana is 4-0 with a +33.8 average margin; Rutgers is 1-3 with a +5.2 recent margin.
    • The predictor is a point-differential model, not a directly published spread-cover probability; the estimated edge is modest.
Show all 16 picks
  1. 1Q total over 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana and Rutgers average 4.13 and 3.00 points per drive respectively across their four 2026 games; the combined scoring-rate base supports a roughly 15.5-16 point first-quarter projection.
    • Rutgers has the faster recent pace at 29.3 seconds per play, while Indiana averages 32.1; the matchup should generate enough early possessions for the over.
    • Indiana's .543 success rate and Rutgers' +.132 average PROE support aggressive opening-script scoring rather than a purely conservative first quarter.
    • A first quarter is an extremely small sample; one three-and-out, turnover, or missed field goal can decide the ticket.
  2. Indiana Hoosiers wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's four-game 2026 EPA/play profile is materially stronger: offense +0.43 versus Rutgers defense allowed +0.03.
    • Rutgers offense averages +0.18 EPA/play against Indiana defense allowed -0.06; the script-side differential favors Indiana.
    • Indiana averages .543 offensive success and .181 explosive rate across four games, versus Rutgers at .503 and .126.
    • Four games is a thin 2026 sample, and both profiles include Howard, which can inflate efficiency.
  3. Game total under 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
  4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +25
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Rutgers +25, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so this is not a full three-measure signal.
  5. Game total over 56
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current form is offense-friendly: Indiana averages 0.35 EPA/play and Rutgers 0.11; Rutgers allows 0.19 defensive EPA/play.
    • Season scoring averages combine to 77.25 points; Pinnacle's main total of 57 corroborates the over direction.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana builds a large lead, then the second-half pace falls and Rutgers cannot contribute enough for 57 points.
  6. Game total under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana and Rutgers average 32.13 and 29.15 seconds per play across four 2026 games, with only 62.25 and 69.0 offensive plays per game.
    • Indiana's PFF defense grade is 90.3, versus Rutgers' 77.6 offense; the matchup projects Indiana scoring efficiently while Rutgers struggles to add enough.
    • The full-game 57 rung equals the quoted 15.5 plus 41.5 team-total anchors, so venue self-reference provides no additional cushion.
  7. KJ Duff over 85.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 63% versus 54.1% implied at -118: 8.9-point value margin.
    • Duff cleared 85.5 in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
    • He is 4-for-4 over the current 2026 line, with 131, 86, 137 and 196 yards.
    • Indiana's defense allowed only 233.8 opponent yards per game in its four 2026 games.
  8. Rutgers Scarlet Knights spread +24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair spread: Indiana -22.5, creating a two-point cushion versus the -24.5 market.
    • Rutgers owns a +0.18 season offensive EPA/play; Indiana's defense is strong overall but allowed +0.30 EPA/play in its latest game.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed in same-day reporting: Indiana's Josh Hoover and Rutgers' Dylan Lonergan; neither has a reported QB injury.
    • Indiana's offense leads this matchup at +0.43 EPA/play and 54.3% success rate, so the talent gap can still produce a 30-point margin.
  9. Indiana Hoosiers game total over 56
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS-only prior game totals average 52.7 for Indiana and 61.3 for Rutgers; the 57.0 combined baseline is one point above 56.
    • Indiana averages +0.40 offensive EPA/play and Rutgers allows +0.21 defensive EPA/play against FBS opponents, supporting Indiana scoring.
    • Personnel confirmed this wake: Indiana QB Josh Hoover and Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan are expected to play.
    • Only three FBS games per team inform the projection; the 57.0 baseline is a small, opponent-mixed sample.
  10. Game total under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana's defense allowed 0 points to Western Kentucky and Howard, then 23 to Northwestern; its four-game defensive EPA average is approximately -0.06 per play.
    • Rutgers scored 21 and 35 against Boston College and USC, while its current four-game offensive EPA average is only 0.16; a rough projection is Indiana 37, Rutgers 17.
    • The market's 56.5, 57 center appears to lean on both teams' FCS scoring; removing the Howard games leaves a more restrained matchup baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's efficient offense converts short fields and Rutgers contributes enough to push the game past 55.

Questions

Who won Indiana vs. Rutgers?

Indiana won 47-15 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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