Northern Arizona vs. Idaho StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalICCU Dome
Northern Arizona3–2
38–31Final
Idaho State4–0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
| IDAH | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-7 on this game · −100% return
- Idaho State Bengals to win−100%Lost
Taken at −298 on DraftKings
2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Efficiency: charted 2026 EPA profile favors Idaho State by 0.298 points per play on offense/defense combined.
- QB/injury: Jordan Cooke and Ty Pennington are confirmed starters; no availability concern is reported.
- The FCS market is thinner, so the market-family signal is down-weighted.
Long Way Home- 2026 warehouse form: Idaho State is 4-0 with a +21.5 recent scoring margin; Northern Arizona is 3-2 at -2.6.
- The live 0-7 deficit is only 1:11 into the first quarter; I treat one early touchdown as insufficient to erase the pregame strength gap.
- Most likely loss: Northern Arizona's opening touchdown reflects a matchup or availability shock and snowballs before Idaho State responds.
- Game total under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Fair total 51.5, four points below FanDuel’s 55.5 market.
- Efficiency matchup favors suppression: Idaho State +0.033 offensive EPA/play and -0.107 defensive EPA/play allowed; NAU offense -0.264.
- NAU allowed +0.228 defensive EPA/play in its latest game, leaving explosive-play risk.
Long Way Home- Northern Arizona's latest offense posted -0.043 EPA/play and 53.7% success; Idaho State's latest defense allowed -0.0376 EPA/play.
- The teams' latest completed games totaled 42 and 52 points, while Idaho State's latest explosive-play rate was 17.9%.
- Most likely loss: Idaho State's +0.0796 offensive EPA/play and 2.1538 points per drive exploit Northern Arizona's +0.2274 defensive EPA allowed.
- Idaho State Bengals −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 73/100: model projects Idaho State by 12.0, 4.5 points above the posted spread.
- Idaho State is 4-0 with a +21.5 average margin; Northern Arizona is 3-2 with a -2.6 average margin.
- Idaho State owns the latest PFF team-grade edge, 92.3 overall to Northern Arizona's 75.0; defense is 92.1 to 71.8.
- FCS opponent strength varies materially; the simple score projection may overstate the Bengals' advantage.
- Idaho State −7 (push at exactly 7)−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho State -7 pushes at exactly a 7-point win; -7.5 loses that outcome.
- Exact 7-point NCAAF margin: 861 of 11,000 games, or 7.827%.
- 7.827% is a broad NCAAF sample, not a matchup-specific margin distribution.
- Idaho State Bengals spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Idaho State's 2026 team-game profile: +0.048 offensive EPA/play, -0.095 defensive EPA/play allowed, and 2.192 points per drive.
- Northern Arizona's corresponding profile is -0.265 offensive EPA/play, +0.248 defensive EPA/play allowed, and 0.636 points per drive.
- Idaho State is 4-0 with a +21.5 recent scoring margin per game; Northern Arizona is 3-2 at -2.6.
- Most likely loss: Northern Arizona stays within seven despite Idaho State's stronger efficiency profile.
Questions
Who won Northern Arizona vs. Idaho State?
The Northern Arizona won 38–31 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.