San José State vs. Hawai'iFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| HAW | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan José State Spartans to win 43¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Two credible recent winners align on the straight moneyline, not a parlay or exotic.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −16% return
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors to win−100%Lost
Taken at −148 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Brewing CFB MoneylinesWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Grade 75/100 (B): qualifies at 70+ with a strong model edge.
- Predictor projects a 6.136-point home margin; the market prices Hawai'i only -2.5 to -3.
- Hawai'i is only 1-3 and has scored 72 points through four games; recent scoring has been volatile.
Brewing CFB Moneylines- That historical pattern selects the home favorite, independently agreeing with the current model.
- Hawai'i's recent 10-game EPA/play is +0.1533 versus San José State's -0.0165; QB starters are confirmed.
- Grade B historical sample: 91 games, below the 100-game Grade A threshold; conviction is capped low.
- San José State Spartans to win+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two credible recent winners align on the straight moneyline, not a parlay or exotic.
- San José State is only 2-2 this season and recently lost 26-10 to Fresno State.
- Game first-half total over 26.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weeks 1, 4: San José State averaged 74.5 plays/game at 23.90 seconds/play; Hawai'i averaged 77.75, with usable pace 23.93 after excluding a bad 1.33 entry.
- The teams averaged 68 combined first-half plays and 48 first-half drives: 68 ÷ 5.67 plays/drive projects 12.0 first-half drives versus 24.25 full-game drives.
- Four-game samples drive the estimate; one Hawai'i pace entry was corrupted and excluded, adding model uncertainty.
- Luke Weaver under 250.5 passing yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Luke Weaver stayed under 250.5 in 3 of 4 2026 starts (75%).
- Current-game odds board confirms Weaver is priced for this matchup and active in the rotation.
- ProphetX independently posts the same 250.5-yard market, supporting the line identity.
- Hawai'i's recent defense allowed 0.1129 EPA per play, a matchup risk for an under.
Questions
Who won San José State vs. Hawai'i?
The San José State won 20–16 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.