Southern Utah vs. Utah TechFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalGreater Zion Stadium
Southern Utah1–4
46–33Final
Utah Tech0–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 15 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 46 |
| UTAH | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouthern Utah Thunderbirds spread −10.5 59¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: Key-number rung: the -9.5/-10.5 drop is 3.44 percentage points; the CFB histogram records 463 exact-10 margins.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −58% return
- Game total under 56.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Both offenses are near neutral in early-season EPA/play: SUU -0.002 and Utah Tech -0.004, with Utah Tech producing only 1.19 points per drive.
- Burns and Barben are the expected starters in the official preview; neither profile supplies a clear efficiency upgrade over the posted total.
- Both defenses have poor early EPA allowed figures (.295 SUU and .348 Utah Tech), creating touchdown variance.
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100; projected total 52.5 versus the 56.5 line, a 7.1% projection gap.
- Seven of the teams’ last 10 combined games finished below 56.5 points.
- Both defenses allow positive EPA per play: Southern Utah 0.310 and Utah Tech 0.348.
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds spread −10.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number rung: the -9.5/-10.5 drop is 3.44 percentage points; the CFB histogram records 463 exact-10 margins.
- Southern Utah's 2026 PFF team grade is 72.7 versus Utah Tech's 61.0, including an 80.1-to-48.1 pass-block edge.
- Southern Utah's offense is +0.0094 EPA/play versus Utah Tech's -0.0044; Pinnacle's -14.5 main spread supports the favorite direction.
- Most likely loss: Southern Utah wins by 10 or fewer; the -10.5 ticket needs an 11-point margin.
- Game total under 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE, through two games, Southern Utah is at +0.0094 offensive EPA/play and Utah Tech at -0.0044; success rates are only 41.5% and 41.2%.
- Current scoring outputs are Southern Utah 24 and 24, Utah Tech 7 and 13; my rough projection is a mid-40s total, above 50% under 53.5.
- One-leg ticket: no combination tax; this is a direct projection rather than a manufactured third leg.
- Both defenses have allowed explosive scoring already: Southern Utah gave up 58 and 28; Utah Tech gave up 63 and 37.
Questions
Who won Southern Utah vs. Utah Tech?
The Southern Utah won 46–33 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.