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Temple vs. South FloridaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium
Temple1–3
17–13Final
South Florida4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
TEM0100717
USF307313

Top model pick, graded

Won

Temple Owls wins 1st Half 35¢

Why Kickoff Script likes it: Temple's four-game matchup EPA differential is +0.189/play versus USF's -0.050/play.

Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-5 on this game · −1% return

  1. South Florida −7 (push at exactly 7)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • South Florida -7 pushes at exactly a 7-point win; South Florida -7.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX +132 (43.10¢) at -7 versus +150 (40.00¢) at -7.5; only 3.10¢ buys the push option.
    • The 2014, 25 unconditional key-number mass may not match this 2026 Temple, South Florida matchup.
  2. Over 50 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's exact 50.0 reference is Over -113 / Under -103; devigged Over probability is 51.1%.
    • 122.75 current average combined plays converts to roughly 10, 11 possessions per side; points-per-drive support a 53-point mean.
    • Most likely loss: Temple stalls against South Florida's defense and the game finishes in the mid-40s.
  3. South Florida Bulls −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Grade 74/100; estimated cover probability 58% versus 52.4% break-even, +5.6 points.
    • South Florida is 4-0 with a +16.0 scoring margin per game; Temple is 1-3 at +0.25.
    • Recent defensive EPA allowed: South Florida +0.011 per play versus Temple +0.241, a major matchup gap.
    • South Florida’s latest offense produced only 14 points and 1.27 points per drive.
  4. Temple Owls wins 1st Half
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple's four-game matchup EPA differential is +0.189/play versus USF's -0.050/play.
    • Temple averages +0.142 offensive EPA/play; USF allows -0.047 defensive EPA/play, creating the favorable script-side matchup.
    • Own first-half estimate is 42%, 7.7 points above Kalshi's 34.3% three-way devigged substitute reference.
    • USF is 4-0 and at home; its .528 offensive success rate and 2.78 points per drive exceed Temple's .483 and 2.33.
  5. South Florida Bulls spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing South Florida -6, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference only; no independent sharp reference is used.
  6. Game total under 51
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season game totals average 55.0 for Temple and 45.25 for South Florida; the simple blend sits just below 51.
    • QB gate cleared: latest pass-attempt leaders are Ajani Sheppard and Michael Van Buren Jr.; a current game preview names both starters.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida’s +0.1738 offensive EPA/play and Temple’s +0.2241 defensive EPA allowed produce 52 or more.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Michael Van Buren Jr. over 188.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple ranks 161st of 184 FBS teams in 2026 defensive EPA allowed per play (0.2241).
    • South Florida is 4-0 and averaging 30.0 points per game through four contests.
    • Van Buren is confirmed active in South Florida's quarterback rotation and FanDuel lists him for this game.
    • Over hit in only 2 of Van Buren's four 2026 appearances; the recent-form threshold is not met.
  2. Game first-half total under 20.5 points
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: no independent 1H sharp rung, so this is a LEAN.
    • Current: 3 points, 5 drives, 27 plays after Q1; historical 10.0 Temple and 10.5 USF drives/game leave about 5.
    • Sep 5, Sep 26: Temple 2.33, USF 2.78 points/drive; mean PROE/explosive proxy supplies a 7.2% uplift.
    • First-half reference is venue-only; no independent sharp total, so structural edge is capped at LEAN.
  3. Temple Owls spread +7.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: exact 7-point CFB margins occurred 860 times; ProphetX moves only 3.15 probability points from Temple +7 to +7.5.
    • Pinnacle's main spread is South Florida -5.5, leaving a two-point cushion to the recommended alternate.
    • South Florida's 2026 defense allows -0.0469 EPA/play, but Temple's offense still produces +0.1420 EPA/play; the matchup projects competitive enough for the cushion.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida's +0.1738 offensive EPA/play and Temple's +0.2126 defensive EPA/play produce an 8-plus-point Bulls win.
  4. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +27200

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Akron leg, PROJECTION / NO REFERENCE: tied 0-0 in Q2; Akron led early success rate 26.3% to 23.1%.
    • South Florida leg, PROJECTION / SHARP REFERENCE: season EPA profile favors USF; ProphetX -205 versus Pinnacle -208.
    • Akron's 19-play sample is tiny; both offenses posted negative early EPA, so one sustained Central Michigan drive can decide the leg.

Questions

Who won Temple vs. South Florida?

The Temple won 17–13 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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