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Texas State vs. San Diego StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSnapdragon Stadium
Texas State2–2
29–31Final
San Diego State1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
TXST10701229
SDSU3021731

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego State Aztecs to win 23¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Raw Kalshi YES 0.23 is a fraction (≤1.00): 23¢, 23.0% implied, approximately +335 American; actively trading.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-11 on this game · +3% return

  1. San Diego State Aztecs to winLong shot2 models agree
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Raw Kalshi YES 0.23 is a fraction (≤1.00): 23¢, 23.0% implied, approximately +335 American; actively trading.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's offense averages 0.246 EPA/play and 2.82 points/drive versus SDSU's -0.015 and 1.82.
    Long Way Home
    • The market's 9-point Texas State spread is inconsistent with the predictor's near-even game projection; the likely miss is overpricing Texas State's strong early offensive results.
    • The 2026 box profile is volatile: Texas State has allowed 35, 59, and 31 points in three losses/close games, while San Diego State's home venue offers the model's counterweight.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's offense converts its 0.246 average current-season EPA/play and wins as the market expects.
  2. Texas State Bobcats spread −9.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Texas State averages +0.241 offensive EPA/play and 52.1% success; San Diego State is -0.016 EPA/play and 42.5% success.
    • Texas State averages 2.82 points per drive versus San Diego State's 1.82 through four games.
    • Texas State's defense allows 0.195 EPA/play, leaving a path for San Diego State to score at home.
    Key Number CFB
    • Texas State’s 2026 offense is +0.2409 EPA/play with 51.1% success; San Diego State is -0.0159 EPA/play with 42.5% success.
    • QB gate checked: Brad Jackson led Texas State’s latest passing box with 20 attempts and a fresh web check identifies him as the Bobcats’ quarterback; Jayden Denegal led SDSU with 31 attempts and the official game article calls him the starter.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State wins by 9 or fewer; the -9.5 rung has no push protection.
  3. Game total under 58.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • ProphetX's adjacent under 58 wins at 57 or fewer, pushes exactly 58, and loses at 59+.
    • Exact 58 occurred 99 of 3,660 CFB games from 2022-25: 2.705% historical push/win-option mass.
    • This is a venue-self-reference comparison, not an independent sharp-book comparison.
    Long Way Home
    • Live sharp references are lower: Pinnacle under 55 at -121 and FanDuel under 56.5 at -112; ProphetX leaves a materially higher total number to clear.
    • San Diego State scored only 16, 13, and 10 points in its three pregame losses; its prior offensive EPA/play marks were -0.0836, -0.0887, and -0.2225.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's early 10-0 start becomes sustained explosive scoring and pushes the final above 58.5.
  4. Over total 57.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game scoring baseline is 59.25 points: Texas State 36.25 per game and San Diego State 23.0.
    • Texas State posts +0.2409 offensive EPA/play; both defenses are leaky: Texas State allows +0.1954 and San Diego State +0.0791 EPA/play.
    • San Diego State's offense is only -0.0159 EPA/play and 23.0 points per game; that is the clearest under path.
  5. Texas State Bobcats first-half spread NO 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,512 completed games from 2024-26 produce empirical margin SD 15.77; college mass is highest at 3, 7, and 10 points.
    • Texas State averages 73.25 plays, 2.82 points/drive and +0.246 EPA/play in 2026; San Diego State averages 1.82 points/drive and -0.015 EPA/play.
    • Pinnacle's full-game Texas State -9.5 scales to a +4.75 first-half mean; the 9.5 rung sits beside observed 10-point college mass.
    • The first-half distribution is a normal mean-plus-SD projection, not a direct first-half sample; transformation error can dominate.
  6. San Diego State Aztecs +9.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100: model projects a near-pick'em home margin (-0.6) against a +9.5 spread.
    • San Diego State covered 6 of its latest 10 DK-graded games, exactly the 60% L10 gate.
    • Our cover estimate is 62%, 10.1 percentage points above DraftKings' 51.9% breakeven.
    • San Diego State is 0-4 ATS in its four 2026 games; the 60% L10 result is season-mixed.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Texas State Bobcats wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent three-game matchup EPA projects Texas State +0.282 per play versus San Diego State, while SDSU projects -0.220.
    • Texas State averaged 0.547 success rate and 3.55 points per drive in its last three; SDSU averaged 0.397 and 1.10.
    • Both official previews identify the opening QBs: Brad Jackson for Texas State and Jayden Denegal for San Diego State.
    • Only three recent games drive the core matchup averages, with opponent-quality adjustment still noisy.
  2. Texas State Bobcats spread −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Across the ladder, Texas State has $705 depth versus $447: 1.58× deeper behind the quote.
    • Two of three measures agree; book levels are tied 2-2, so the third measure does not corroborate.
    • Directional coherence: backing Texas State -11.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Live game is 0-3 with 8:57 left in the first quarter; game-state repricing can erase the read quickly.
  3. Texas State Bobcats to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 77¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3, 3, so the third measure is neutral; the two core measures qualify the full-game moneyline while first-half ML and spread/total ladders were only exploratory or lean.
    • Directional check: backing Texas State Bobcats, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels each, so the signal relies on two measures rather than all three.
  4. San Diego State Aztecs spread +10.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Diego State +10.5 wins if Texas State wins by exactly 10; San Diego State +10 only pushes.
    • 4.252% historical absolute exact-10 margin mass: 441 of 10,371 NCAAF finals, 2014-25.
    • ProphetX +10.5 is 55.16¢ (-123) versus +10 at 52.83¢ (-112), only a 2.33¢ gap.
    • The 4.252% figure is an all-game absolute-margin proxy, not a matchup-specific directional probability.
  5. Game total over 57
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas State averages 0.246 EPA/play on offense; San Diego State is at -0.0145, while current scoring averages combine for 59.25 points.
    • The sharp main total is 57.5; PFF offense grades favor Texas State 78.0 to 63.9, and both teams average roughly 25 seconds per play.
    • QB gate: latest passing leaders are Brad Jackson (20 attempts, 5 TD) and Jayden Denegal (31 attempts); live official checks list both players as quarterbacks, with SDSU identifying Denegal as its starter.
    • Most likely loss: 56 or fewer points; San Diego State's poor offense can leave Texas State carrying the total alone.
  6. Texas State Bobcats game total under 58
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas State’s four-game pace averages 24.65 seconds per play with -1.6% PROE; San Diego State averages 25.19 seconds and +5.1% PROE.
    • Scoring-rate gap: Texas State has 52.2% success and 14.9% explosiveness; San Diego State has 42.5% and 8.9%.
    • only current samples are three games per team: Texas State averages 27.3 points, San Diego State 13.0, a 40.3-point combined rate.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State’s defense, allowing +0.195 EPA per play, gives San Diego State efficient home possessions and the game reaches 59.
  7. Texas State Bobcats −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-4 net EPA/play: Texas State +0.0509 versus San Diego State -0.0842, a +0.1351 differential.
    • Texas State leads last-4 points per drive 2.819 to 1.823.
    • Sportsbook spread dispersion runs from San Diego State +9.0 to +10.5, exceeding the 1-point variance gate; FanDuel offers Texas State -9.5 at -115.
    • Only four current-season games; opponent quality and early-season variance remain substantial.
  8. Game total under 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Diego State averages only 1.82 points per drive and -0.016 offensive EPA/play; its offense is the weaker side of the matchup.
    • The teams average roughly 25 seconds per play, a moderate combined pace rather than a shootout tempo.
    • NWS San Diego calls for east winds around 15-20 knots at the coast with gusts near 20-35 mph, a meaningful passing-weather downgrade.
    • Texas State averages 2.82 points per drive and 0.142 explosive rate, so its offense can clear the total largely by itself.
  9. Game total over 58
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Texas State offense averages +0.246 EPA/play against San Diego State allowing +0.070; both sides support Texas State scoring pressure.
    • Possession profile is fast: Texas State 24.91 and San Diego State 24.48 seconds/play, with PROE of -1.6% and +5.1%.
    • Texas State averages 14.2% explosive plays versus San Diego State's 8.9%; PFF offense grades are 78.0 versus 63.9.
    • Most likely loss: San Diego State's current -0.015 offensive EPA/play and 8.9% explosiveness fail to exploit Texas State's vulnerable defense, leaving the game at 57 or fewer.
  10. Texas State Bobcats spread −9
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live external pricing is Texas State -9.5 (-115), while ProphetX still offers -9 (-109 / 52.15¢).
    • Texas State's 2026 offense is +0.2409 EPA/play versus San Diego State's -0.0159, supporting the injury-driven favorite direction.
    • The illness/injury news may already be partly reflected by the external move to -9.5; the remaining half-point may not be enough.

Questions

Who won Texas State vs. San Diego State?

The San Diego State won 31–29 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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