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Washington vs. USCFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Washington3–1
21–25Final
USC4–1
Score by period
Team1234T
WASH777021
USC3712325

Top model pick, graded

Won

Washington Huskies spread +9.5 55¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-9 on this game · +11% return

  1. Washington Huskies spread +7.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Washington's four-game net EPA composite is +0.192 per play (0.0895 offense minus -0.1027 allowed) versus USC's +0.101 (0.2980 minus 0.1967).
    • Washington's defense has allowed -0.103 EPA/play; USC has allowed +0.197, supporting a competitive margin at +7.5.
    • USC's offense averages +0.298 EPA/play versus Washington's +0.090, creating real two-score risk.
    Key Number CFB
    • Washington's defense averages -0.1027 EPA/play versus USC's +0.1967 defensive EPA allowed; the matchup supports margin resistance.
    • PFF team grades favor Washington's defense 90.0 to USC's 73.5, offsetting USC's 92.9 offensive grade.
    • USC's offense averages +0.298 EPA/play and can turn home-field efficiency into a win by 8 or more.
  2. Game total under 582 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Washington's current defense allows -0.1027 EPA/play across four games, providing the under anchor against USC's strong +0.2980 EPA/play offense across five games.
    • Most likely loss: USC's +0.2980 offensive EPA/play overwhelms Washington's defense and produces a 35-plus-point home total by itself.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • a simple scoring-profile blend projects roughly 55.5 combined points, below the 58 rung.
    • Washington has allowed 16.75 points per game; USC has scored 39.8 but allowed 26.4, creating a lower-than-market matchup blend.
    • Likeliest loss path: USC's .298 offensive EPA/play and Washington's .164 explosive rate create enough big plays to reach 59+.
  3. Washington Huskies spread +9.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. Under 58.5 total points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's four-game offense averages 0.09 EPA/play and 2.39 points/drive; the lower-output side is the load-bearing Under factor.
    • Most likely loss: USC's 3.55 current points/drive and explosive passing create an efficient shootout above 59.
  5. USC Trojans spread −8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup differential: +0.530 per play for USC.
    • USC success rate 52.3% vs Washington 45.9%: +6.4 percentage points.
    • Spread range is 8.5 to 9.5 across books; DraftKings offers USC at the low 8.5.
    • Five-game USC and four-game Washington samples are early-season and noisy.
  6. Zacharyus Williams over 28.5 receiving yards
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 7 appearances cleared 28.5 yards, including all five 2026 games.
    • His 2026 receiving-yard average is 36.0, 7.5 above the posted line.
    • FanDuel -118 implies 54.1%; model estimate is 75%, a 20.9-point value margin.
    • Washington's defense grades 90.0 overall and 84.8 in coverage, a meaningful matchup counterweight.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Jayden Maiava over 269.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 appearances cleared 269.5 yards; he is 5-for-5 in 2026.
    • His 2026 average is 299.8 passing yards across five games, 30.3 above this line.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; model estimate is 72%, a 18.7-point value margin.
    • Washington's defense grades 90.0 and allowed -0.0899 EPA/play over its recent 10-game window.
  2. Washington Huskies spread +8
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's four-game defense allowed -0.103 EPA/play versus USC's five-game defense allowing +0.197; the 0.300 defensive gap supports the cushion.
    • USC's offense leads at +0.298 EPA/play and 55.0% success, but Washington's defense grades 90.0 versus USC's 73.5 and can keep margin variance live.
    • Current samples are Washington 4 games and USC 5; both clear the FBS three-game coverage gate, with explosive rates nearly even at 16.4% and 16.5%.
    • Most likely loss: USC's +0.298 offensive EPA/play and home-field explosiveness turn Washington's weaker +0.112 offense into a 9-point-or-more defeat.
  3. King Miller over 70.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Grade 74/100: qualifying B-level edge.
    • 82.4 current-season rushing-yard average versus a 70.5 line: 16.9% projection edge.
    • Over in 7 of his last 10 games (70%); over in 3 of 5 this season.
    • Washington's 2026 defense allowed -0.103 EPA/play, a strong run-matchup warning.
  4. Game first-half total over 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 games through Oct. 2: USC averaged 72.2 plays at 29.20 seconds/play; Washington 68.25 at 27.94 seconds/play.
    • Calibrating the 38.2-point first-half output to the 51.5 full-game reference (64.6 uncalibrated / 51.5) gives 30.5 points; model fair over probability 60% versus 45c.
    • The first quarter is only 3-0 with 2:22 remaining; early defensive success can overwhelm a pace-based projection.
  5. Washington Huskies spread +4.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Washington 3 versus USC 3; the two supporting measures are quote thinness and total depth, while levels tie.
    • Venue self-reference only; no sharp reference was used, and resting quotes may be stale or cancelled.
  6. Washington Huskies-USC Trojans total points over 58
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 58 pushes and refunds at exactly 58, while Over 58.5 loses at exactly 58.
    • ProphetX Over 58 is 47.39¢ (+109) versus Over 58.5 at 46.30¢ (+116), only a 1.09¢ price gap.
    • The 2.652% exact-total mass is league-wide, not Washington-USC-specific; matchup distribution may differ materially.
  7. Game total over 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • team totals 33.5 + 24.5 imply 58, one point above the game over-57 rung.
    • 2026 sample: USC 5 games, Washington 4; pace is 29.07/27.94 seconds per play and 72.2/68.25 plays.
    • USC posts .550 success and .165 explosive rate; Washington defense allows -0.103 EPA/play while USC allows +0.197.
    • Most likely loss: Washington's strong -0.103 defensive EPA/play holds USC below 30 while Washington's offense stalls.
  8. USC Trojans spread −8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • cfb_predictor observed 6:05 AM PDT projects USC +14.015; the ProphetX rung is USC -8.
    • USC leads Washington in 2026 off EPA/play (.298 vs .112) and success rate (.550 vs .463) across five versus four games.
    • captured books were around USC -7 to -7.5; reference only, not the edge.
    • Washington’s defense has allowed -0.103 EPA/play, while USC’s defense has allowed +0.197; a strong Washington defensive performance can keep this within one score.
  9. USC Trojans first-half spread NO 6.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game USC -7 scales to a +3.5 first-half mean.
    • 2,480 completed 2024-26 CFB games: SD_full 15.79; sqrt-half SD is 11.17, not 7.90.
    • at 6.5, normal tail plus observed 7-point mass gives USC-over probability 43.2%; NO fair probability 56.8%.
    • No independent first-half sharp quote; the full-game -7 is scaled, so rung-specific value is model-dependent.
  10. USC Trojans spread −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC -7 pushes at an exact 7-point win; adjacent USC -7.5 loses there.
    • Exact absolute margin 7 occurred 821 of 10,371 CFB games from 2014-25: 7.916%.
    • Adjacent ProphetX USC -7.5 is +102; translating its quoted win rate through the 7.916% push mass implies roughly -116 fair for the whole rung, leaving -113 favorable.
    • The 7.916% mass is all-game historical data, not matchup-specific; team and era distributions vary.
  11. Game total over 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC averages +0.298 EPA/play on offense and allows +0.197 EPA/play defensively; its offense-defense profile raises scoring volatility.
    • 2026 scoring averages are USC 39.8 and Washington 28.0; Pinnacle’s 58.5 reference supports an over-57.5 position.
    • Most likely loss: Washington’s offense stalls and USC cannot create enough short-field or explosive scoring to reach 58.
  12. USC Trojans spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, USC averages +0.298 offensive EPA/play and 3.676 points/drive versus Washington's +0.090 and 2.386.
    • My matchup read makes USC's home margin roughly 9, 10 points; the market has not fully priced the Trojans' sustained offensive advantage.
    • Directional coherence: USC control supports the existing under-57 game script rather than requiring a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: USC wins by one to seven, or Washington wins outright despite the Trojans' offensive edge.
  13. Game total under 57
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE. Washington's latest advanced row was -0.069 EPA/play, 40.7% success and 1.85 points per drive.
    • USC's latest high-level test produced only 27 points against Oregon despite +0.174 offensive EPA/play; the matchup is less explosive than USC's raw season scoring suggests.
    • Most likely loss: USC's 24.5-second recent pace and Washington's vulnerable early-season offense create a shootout or short-field scoring.

Questions

Who won Washington vs. USC?

The USC won 25–21 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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