Weber State vs. Cal PolyFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEBE | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 42 |
| CAL | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWeber State Wildcats spread +5.5 −105
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 73/100 (B): clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +34% return
- Game total under 67.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 63.5, four points below FanDuel's 67.5; FanDuel also offers two points over Pinnacle's 65.5.
- Cal Poly's 2026 offense is -0.070 EPA/play; Weber's is only +0.006 through two games.
- Pace is nearly neutral and modest: Cal Poly 15.63 versus Weber 15.03 seconds per play.
- Weber's defense has allowed 48 points per game in its two 2026 contests, creating the clearest over path.
- Weber State Wildcats spread +5.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 73/100 (B): clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
- Weber covered this +5.5 threshold in 4 of its 5 current-season games (80%).
- Current-season scoring margins imply Cal Poly about 2, 3 points better; +5.5 supplies roughly a 3-point projection cushion.
- The spread moved against Weber from roughly Cal Poly -4.5 to -5.5/-6, signaling market resistance.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread −6 (pushes at exactly 6)−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cal Poly -6 pushes at a six-point win; adjacent Cal Poly -6.5 loses on that same outcome.
- This is not a projection claim: the push option does not make Cal Poly more likely to reach six points.
- Weber State Wildcats spread +6+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle's same-game spread is Cal Poly -4.5, while ProphetX offers Weber +6.
- Weber's 2026 offense is +0.0057 EPA/play versus Cal Poly's -0.0149, supporting a tighter matchup than the home favorite implies.
- Cal Poly owns the better recent five-game profile (3-2, +0.4 scoring margin per game versus Weber 2-3, -1.8).
- Weber State Wildcats to win+186%Won
Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE: Weber's two-game 2026 offensive EPA/play average is +0.006 versus Cal Poly's -0.070.
- Weber's current offensive EPA marks (+0.097, -0.086) are stronger than Cal Poly's (+0.051, -0.190), despite Cal Poly being priced as a 67.21¢ favorite.
- Weber is only 2-2 and allowed 52, 47, and 44 points in three games; the defense can undo its offensive value.
Questions
Who won Weber State vs. Cal Poly?
The Weber State won 42–34 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.