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Memphis vs. TulaneFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalYulman Stadium
Memphis5–1
17–31Final
Tulane2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
MEM370717
TULN0230831

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 54.5 −108

Why NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant likes it: Tulane home totals went under in 10 of 15 qualifying games (66.7%) over 2024-26.

NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantUp 20% return this season · 19 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-10 on this game · −44% return

  1. Memphis Tigers spread −72 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • FBS-only averages favor Memphis: +0.328 offensive EPA/play vs Tulane +0.057, 51.1% vs 41.0% success.
    • Memphis also leads explosive rate 17.7% to 11.9%; Tulane defense allows +0.116 EPA/play versus Memphis defense at -0.003.
    • Tulane's freshman quarterback could outperform his limited prior sample, creating substantial game-to-game variance.
    Long Way Home
    • Tulane is 2-3 with a defense ranked 105th in Passing Success Rate; Memphis enters 4-1 with a +20.0 recent scoring-margin form signal.
    • Memphis' leaky secondary has allowed explosive pass plays, giving Tulane a live backdoor-cover path at home.
  2. Under 54.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulane home totals went under in 10 of 15 qualifying games (66.7%) over 2024-26.
    • The total fell one point from 55.5 to 54.5 across the tracked market.
    • Recent points-per-drive: Memphis 2.735, Tulane 2.029; Tulane's offense has been the weaker unit.
    • Memphis averages 0.2088 offensive EPA/play across the recent window, a genuine over threat.
  3. Memphis Tigers 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Memphis -6.5 and -246 ML provide a scaled reference, not a first-half sharp quote.
    • Memphis averages +0.343 offensive EPA/play, 52.2% success, and 17.6% explosiveness; Tulane posts +0.057, 41.0%, and 11.9%.
    • Memphis led at halftime in 5 of 6; Tulane led in 0 of 5, with Memphis averaging +7.8 first-half margin.
    • The first-half sample is only 11 team-games, and opponent quality differs materially.
  4. Memphis Tigers spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  5. Memphis Tigers −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair margin: Memphis by 8.5; the -6.5 spread leaves a 2.0-point model edge.
    • Opponent-adjusted ratings favor Memphis: FPI +4.458 vs Tulane -3.345; SP+ 7.6 vs -7.6; SRS 0.9 vs -6.0.
    • Across five FBS games, Memphis averaged +0.328 offensive EPA/play, -0.003 defensive EPA allowed, .511 success rate and 3.05 points/drive.
    • ESPN's FPI matchup model projects Memphis by only 5.8, 2.7 points below my fair margin.
  6. Jaylin Carter over 88.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 60% versus 52.8% implied by FanDuel -112: +7.2 percentage points.
    • Tulane allows 218.6 opponent rushing yards per game, 275th of 318 FBS teams in the current sample.
    • Carter has 15+ carries in all six 2026 games and averages 107.5 rushing yards.
    • Strict last-10 hit rate is only 4/10 because four 2025 Southern Miss games are included; the Memphis-role sample is just six games.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Under 55.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 Tulane / 6 Memphis current games: Tulane averages +0.0204 EPA/play and .4111 success; Memphis averages +0.3435 EPA/play.
    • Tulane's .1245 explosive rate and weak offense limit its scoring contribution against Memphis's 79.1 PFF defense grade.
    • Pace is moderate: Memphis 25.11 seconds/play and Tulane 21.42; Tulane's higher +8.6% PROE does not offset its low success rate.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis's +0.3435 EPA/play offense creates short fields and carries the game over 55.5.
  2. Memphis Tigers spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 regular-season sample (6 Memphis, 5 Tulane): Memphis offense +0.358 EPA/play and .517 success vs Tulane +.057/.410.
    • Tulane's defense allowed +0.116 EPA/play across five games; Memphis defense allowed +0.047, supporting a one-way efficiency gap.
    • PFF's 2026 card favors Memphis: 89.8 overall, 79.6 offense, 79.1 defense; Tulane is 76.2, 68.1, 70.7.
    • Most likely loss: Tulane's home field and short-game execution keep Memphis within four points.
  3. Over 54.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the primary and only reference; no independent sharp reference was used.
  4. Memphis Tigers spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis -6 is one point inside the market's Memphis -7 reference, preserving value around the 7 key number.
    • CFB margin histogram: 876 of 11,190 margins were exactly 7 (7.8%); the -6/-7 rung gap matters materially.
    • 2026 efficiency gap: Memphis +0.343 EPA/play offense versus Tulane +0.057; Tulane defense allowed +0.116 EPA/play versus Memphis +0.017.
    • Tulane is at home and the sharper reference remains near Memphis -7, so the model may be overrating the Memphis form gap.
  5. Over 27.5 first-half points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
  6. Game total over 56.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis averaged 35.3 points in three road games; Tulane averaged 26.0 in two home games, a 61.3-point split baseline.
    • Memphis's last five totals averaged 61.6 points, keeping the projection above the 56.5 threshold.
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, the live ProphetX ladder supports the adjacent-line discrepancy; no same-line outside endorsement used.
    • Most likely loss: Tulane's offense resembles its recent low-output games and the score lands 56 or lower.
  7. Memphis-Tulane total over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulane's five-game sample is fast at 20.15 seconds/play; both defenses allow positive EPA/play, including Tulane at +0.1158.
    • Memphis' 25.11-second pace is slow, so possessions can undershoot the mid-50s projection.

Questions

Who won Memphis vs. Tulane?

The Tulane won 31–17 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.

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