Missouri State vs. DelawareFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelaware Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 14 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 38 |
| DEL | 7 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 61 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDelaware Blue Hens to win 61¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −61% return
- Delaware Blue Hens to win+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Missouri State +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The live reference board has Delaware -3, making Missouri State +3.5 the favorable half-point side.
- Missouri State loses the ticket by four or more; Delaware can win comfortably despite the spread support.
- Missouri State Bears spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri State +3.5 wins if Delaware wins by exactly 3; Missouri State +3 only pushes on that margin.
- No projection model: +3.5 still loses when Delaware wins by 4 or more.
- Game total under 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Six-game scoring baseline: Missouri State 22.2 scored/30.5 allowed and Delaware 22.8/26.8 imply roughly 51.2 points by a simple offense-defense blend.
- exact CFB totals 51, 52 and 55 occurred 367, 294 and 429 times; the rung is not priced as a flat interval.
- Pinnacle's reference total is 53 with under +101, corroborating the lower-total direction rather than supplying the edge.
- Most likely loss: 54 or more points; 54 and 55 are meaningful exact-total outcomes, and 53.5 offers no push.
- Game total under 52.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Long WeekDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Delaware and Missouri State rank -0.077 and -0.149 in net EPA/play, with offenses at only +0.003 and -0.025.
- Their success rates are 43.9% and 43.1%; explosive rates are 12.2% and 9.9%.
- Average combined scoring is 46.0 points, while both teams average under 25 seconds per play.
- Both defenses have allowed roughly 27-29 points per game, so sustained drives can beat the under.
- Isaiah Myers over 71.5 receiving yards+86%Won
Taken at −116 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 of 5 2026 games cleared 71.5 yards; exact-line record 4-1-0, 5-game season sample, not an L10.
- Myers has 27 catches for 554 yards and five TDs; 110.8 yards per participating game.
- Dated 10/20 reporter check calls Myers a key target for new Missouri State starter Henry Belin IV.
- Only five comparable 2026 games; season-to-date fallback is explicitly below the full-L10 evidence standard.
Show all 9 picks
- Missouri State Bears spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Six-game 2026 FBS sample: Missouri State's PFF overall/offense/defense grades are 76.8/74.3/70.7 versus Delaware's 71.2/67.6/69.3.
- Missouri State averages 1.989 points per drive versus Delaware's 1.741; the offense-vs-opponent-defense EPA gaps are similarly modest at -0.105 and -0.121.
- Both teams clear the coverage gate with six current-season rows; the latest passing boxes led with Henry Belin IV (39 attempts) and Tyler Bell (36).
- Most likely loss: Delaware's home field, .1216 explosive rate and +16.4% PROE create enough chunk plays to win by 3 or more.
- Game total under 53−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current scoring baselines are modest: Missouri State 22.17 points/game and Delaware 22.83; six-game defensive EPA allowed is +0.1238 and +0.0803, respectively, supporting volatility but not a runaway projection.
- FBS coverage gate cleared with six 2026 rows each; both are FBS Group-of-Five teams, so this is LEAN-capped and sized at 0.5 units.
- Most likely loss: Delaware converts Missouri State's +0.1238 defensive EPA allowed into short-field or explosive scoring and the game reaches 54+.
- Missouri State Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri State enters 2-3 in its last five; Delaware is 1-4, while the market still prices Delaware as a clear favorite.
- Missouri State's latest offense posted 0.103 EPA/play and 46.1% success against Kennesaw State, versus Delaware allowing 0.252 defensive EPA/play against Middle Tennessee.
- Most likely loss: Delaware's home-field edge and stronger six-game defensive profile hold up against Missouri State.
Questions
Who won Missouri State vs. Delaware?
The Delaware won 61–38 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.