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Liberty vs. Kennesaw StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
Liberty5–1
34–6Final
Kennesaw State1–5
Score by period
Team1234T
LIB140101034
KENN03036

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 50 50¢

Why Drift likes it: Efficiency model projects 46.2 points: Liberty 27.3, Kennesaw State 18.8, from six-game scoring/defensive averages.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-4 on this game · +53% return

  1. Liberty Flames −9.53 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Kickoff Ledger +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • 31.2-point recent scoring-margin gap: Liberty +20.4 versus Kennesaw State -10.8.
    • Liberty leads recent offensive EPA per play 0.182 to 0.113 and success rate 52.0% to 47.5%.
    • No current CFB injury report or confirmed player availability was published for either team.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Liberty: +0.216 offensive EPA/play, -0.087 defensive EPA/play allowed; Kennesaw: +0.076 and +0.078.
    • Liberty leads season success rate 52.1% to 48.7% and explosiveness 15.1% to 10.0%.
    • Kennesaw State plays faster at 21.5 seconds per play versus Liberty's 27.1, increasing comeback and backdoor-cover chances.
    D1 Winner
    • Own cover probability 57.0% versus 49.1% devigged market probability at -9.5.
    • Liberty averages +0.216 EPA/play and -0.087 defensive EPA/play; Kennesaw State is +0.076 and +0.078.
    • Liberty is on the road, and Kennesaw State receives home-field value in a matchup with a modest 9.5-point spread.
  2. Liberty Flames spread −92 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • six-game sample: Liberty +0.216 EPA/play offense versus Kennesaw State +0.078 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Liberty success rate is 52.1% versus Kennesaw State's 48.7%; offensive explosive rates are 15.1% versus 10.0%.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State reaches double digits and turns a Liberty lead into a backdoor cover at -9.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • 2026 FBS-only averages favor Liberty: +0.247 offensive EPA/play vs Kennesaw State +0.055, and -0.080 defensive EPA/play allowed vs +0.205.
    • Liberty also leads FBS-only success rate 54.0% to 47.8% and explosive rate 15.5% to 9.1%.
    • The FBS-only sample is five games per team; transfer and opponent-quality effects are not fully captured.
  3. Under total 50High conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency model projects 46.2 points: Liberty 27.3, Kennesaw State 18.8, from six-game scoring/defensive averages.
    • Liberty defense allowed 15.3 points per game; Kennesaw State allowed 23.5, supporting a lower combined baseline.
    • Pinnacle's exact 50-point reference is Over -114 / Under -102; devigged Under fair probability is 48.7%.
    • Liberty's offense leads this matchup profile at +0.216 EPA per play and 15.1% explosiveness, so big plays can break the Under.
  4. Kennesaw State spread +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Game total under 50.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 47.0: projected 11.3 Liberty drives at 2.50 points/drive and 11.0 Kennesaw State drives at 1.69.
    • Liberty's defense has allowed 1.39 points/drive across six games; Kennesaw State's offense averages 2.00.
    • Full coverage: both teams have six usable 2026 games, and Deshawn Purdie/Rickie Collins are listed as the starters.
    • Liberty's offense averages 2.74 points/drive and has produced 0.216 EPA/play; explosive gains could overwhelm the under.
  6. Liberty Flames spread −8
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact rung is Liberty -8 -108 vs Kennesaw State +8 -104; devigged Liberty probability is 50.5% (captured main spread is 8.5, so 8 is the exact reference rung).
    • Six current-season rows each: Liberty composite efficiency is +0.305 EPA/play versus Kennesaw State -0.002, and Liberty leads points per drive by 0.74; both support the Liberty direction.
    • Kennesaw State quarterback Rickie Collins threw for 260 yards on 26-of-34 last game; efficient passing can keep this inside one score.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Liberty Flames first-half spread NO over 14.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,787-game 2024-26 FBS sample has signed-margin SD 22.66; half-scale SD is 16.02, not 11.33.
    • Current warehouse state is Liberty 13-0 at 0:53 Q1; season margin gap is 17.0, implying roughly 17.25 at halftime after one remaining quarter.
    • At 14.5, mean-plus-SD distribution gives NO approximately 56.8%; the venue re-read this contract at 45c for NO.
    • Current score is warehouse 13-0, but cached ESPN/Fox pages disagreed on live status; the game feed is the load-bearing state.
  2. Rickie Collins under 210.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game model mean 192.3 yards after blending Collins’ 217.0 with Liberty opponents’ 167.5-yard average.
    • Model probability 61.3% versus FanDuel’s -112 implied 52.8%: +8.5 points, +16% relative.
    • Exact line form: under 4-2-0 in six 2026 games; 66.7% of decided outcomes.
    • Passing-yard distribution is wide: Collins’ six outputs range from 129 to 293 yards.
  3. Liberty Flames-Kennesaw State Owls total under 52
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game FBS sample: Liberty posts +0.216 EPA/play, 52.1% success and 15.1% explosive plays against Kennesaw's +0.078 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Kennesaw's +0.076 offensive EPA/play and 48.7% success rate face Liberty's -0.087 defensive EPA allowed; the scoring-side mismatch points below 52.
    • Pace/PROE: Kennesaw runs 21.53 seconds per play with +14.9% PROE, but Liberty runs 27.10 seconds with -1.1% PROE; Kennesaw averages only 1.996 points per drive.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty converts Kennesaw's soft defense into 35-plus points while the Owls' fast tempo supplies enough possessions to reach 53.
  4. Liberty Flames to winFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on ProphetX

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 4.13-point model gap is a 5.4% relative projection edge using the executable graded price as denominator.
    • Liberty is 5-1 with a +15.8 season margin; Kennesaw State is 1-5 with a -1.2 margin and has lost five straight.
    • Liberty leads the season profile in EPA/play (0.216 to 0.076), success rate (52.1% to 48.7%) and explosive rate (15.1% to 10.0%).
    • Only six 2026 games per team; Kennesaw's schedule includes a 47-0 win and a 42-9 loss, widening variance.
  5. Game under 27.5 1st-half total
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game scoring rates average 1.70 Kennesaw State points per drive and 2.99 Liberty; pace implies roughly 22 first-half points.
    • Recent pace projects about 5.5 Kennesaw State drives and 4.2 Liberty drives before halftime.
    • Kennesaw State’s recent offensive EPA/play averaged 0.055 against Liberty’s recent defensive EPA/play allowed of -0.121.
    • This is a five-game, raw-rate sample with opponent adjustment only approximated; one dominant Liberty script can break the projection.
  6. First-half total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date pace: Liberty 27.1 seconds/play, Kennesaw State 21.5; combined 24.3 supports roughly 67.9 first-half plays and 11.7 drives.
    • Weighted baseline points/drive is 2.34; weighted PROE is +7.3% and explosive rate 12.4%, producing a specific +1.0% script uplift to 2.37.
    • No independent first-half sportsbook total exists; this is a DERIVED REFERENCE, so the raised bar is applied.
  7. Total points under 52
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB histogram shows 367 games at 51 points and 294 at 52, making the adjacent rung mass non-flat.
    • Liberty posts +0.216 EPA/play offensively and -0.0875 defensively; Kennesaw State is +0.076 offense and +0.0776 defense.
    • Recent scoring baselines are modest: Liberty 31.2 scored/15.3 allowed; Kennesaw State 22.3 scored/23.5 allowed.
    • Most likely loss is 53 or more points; exactly 52 is a push rather than a win.
  8. Liberty Flames spread −9.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 six-game efficiency favors Liberty: +0.216 offensive EPA/play and -0.087 defensive EPA/play versus Kennesaw State's +0.076 and +0.078.
    • Form supports the projection: Liberty averages 31.2 points with a +15.8 recent margin; Kennesaw State averages 22.3 with a -1.2 margin.
    • QB gate cleared by latest box leaders plus fresh game-week web reporting: Deshawn Purdie and Rickie Collins are the listed starters; ProphetX ML -345 agrees directionally.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty wins by 1-9 points; -9.5 has no push protection.
  9. Total points over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The teams average 31.2 and 22.3 points over their last six games: 53.5 combined against a 50.5 reference total.
    • Liberty plays slowly at 27.10 seconds/play, and its defense has allowed -0.0875 EPA per play in the six-game sample.
  10. Liberty Flames −9.5 spread
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liberty averages +0.216 offensive EPA/play and -0.087 defensive EPA allowed versus Kennesaw State at +0.076 and +0.078.
    • Liberty leads the matchup in success rate, 52.1% to 48.7%, and explosive rate, 15.1% to 10.0%.
    • Rest is the strongest early signal: Liberty last played Oct. 8, Kennesaw State Oct. 14, roughly 14 versus 8 days.
    • The market moved one point toward Kennesaw State, a warning against forcing the efficiency edge.
  11. Liberty Flames NO over 6.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4,417 regular-season FBS games (2022, 26) produce full-game margin SD 15.20; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.75.
    • Own scoring blend projects Liberty +10.4 full game and +5.2 at halftime; Pinnacle's full-game +9.5 home spread is a compatible SHARP REFERENCE.
    • At the exact 6.5 rung, the mean-plus-SD distribution gives Liberty-over probability 45.2%, hence NO 54.8% versus a 52c executable price.
    • Pinnacle supplies only a full-game reference; the same-rung probability is derived, so this remains a thin LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
  12. Liberty Flames spread −10
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liberty’s last five: 5-0 with a +20.4 scoring margin; Kennesaw State’s last five: 0-5 at -10.8.
    • Liberty averaged +0.269 offensive EPA/play across its last five; Kennesaw State averaged +0.055.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State’s home field and a backdoor score keep the margin below 10.

Questions

Who won Liberty vs. Kennesaw State?

The Liberty won 34–6 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.

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