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Iowa State vs. ArizonaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCasino Del Sol Stadium
Iowa State3–3
3–39Final
Arizona5–1
Score by period
Team1234T
ISU30003
ARIZ151001439

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Wildcats to win 77¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: The global moneyline is accepting with 2,482 contracts traded, a substantially more liquid straight market than the alternate ladders.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-16 on this game · −43% return

  1. Game total over 51.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    3 modelsTempo Gap, BETALAB 6.0 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Tempo Gap
    • Full six-game coverage: Arizona averaged 68.3 plays and 11.7 drives; Iowa State 67.3 plays and 12.0 drives.
    • Arizona offense averaged +0.261 EPA/play, 51.0% success and 2.89 points/drive; Iowa State defense allowed +0.081 EPA/play.
    • Arizona's defense allowed -0.035 EPA/play; Iowa State's offense averaged only +0.168 EPA/play, 45.2% success and 2.32 points/drive.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • BETALAB estimate 56.5%; uncertainty 53, 60%; fair no-fee price 56.5c.
    • Last-six game totals averaged 51.3 for Iowa State and 54.7 for Arizona.
    • Arizona’s recent defense allowed -0.0348 EPA/play, creating a credible Iowa State scoring drag.
    Long Way Home
    • Six-game scoring averages are Arizona 35.7 and Iowa State 29.7; a cross-match offense/defense blend projects 53.1 points, 1.6 above the line.
    • Arizona owns +0.261 offensive EPA/play and Iowa State allows +0.081 defensive EPA/play; both support Arizona scoring efficiently.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's defense suppresses Iowa State, then a second-half lead produces clock-killing possessions.
  2. Iowa State Cyclones spread +123 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Arizona's average current margin is +16.7 versus Iowa State +8.0, but the efficiency-adjusted margin distribution centers near Arizona +10; +12 adds cushion, and 12 is not a major key-number push rung.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's home edge and superior recent scoring margin produce a win by 13 or more.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game FBS sample: Iowa State’s offense-vs-Arizona-defense EPA matchup is +0.203 per play, versus Arizona’s +0.180.
    • Iowa State’s PFF defense grades 80.7 versus Arizona’s 72.1, offsetting Arizona’s 80.7-to-69.8 offensive grade edge.
    • Iowa State’s defense allowed +0.0805 EPA per play; Fifita can punish that weakness if Arizona protects the ball.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • ESPN's live pregame projection makes Arizona a 9.628-point favorite, leaving 2.372 points of cushion at +12.
    • Iowa State's FBS-only profile is weaker, but its five-game sample still shows a 0.155 offensive EPA/play and 0.462 success rate; the number supplies protection.
    • Arizona's FBS profile leads Iowa State in offensive EPA/play (0.259 to 0.155), success rate (0.492 to 0.462), and explosive rate (0.153 to 0.121).
  3. Arizona Wildcats to winFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The global moneyline is accepting with 2,482 contracts traded, a substantially more liquid straight market than the alternate ladders.
    • Arizona has seven official listed outs and Iowa State has five, while college-football lineups are not served pregame here.
  4. Over 51.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing possession proxy is 135.7 combined plays; combined PPD is 5.21, with explosive rates of 15.3% Arizona and 12.4% Iowa State.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa State's offense stalls against Arizona's -0.0348 defensive EPA/play allowed and the game finishes 51 or fewer.
  5. 2-leg parlay
    +63%Won

    Taken at −159

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona model 82.5% vs 77.5% raw implied at -345; +5.0 points clears the gate.
    • Arizona leads Iowa State in current-season EPA/play, success, explosive rate, points per drive, PFF grade, and FPI.
    • Ohio model 84.0% vs 79.2% raw implied at -380; +4.8 points clears the gate.
    • Arizona has six and Ohio seven current-season games; early-season estimates are uncertain.
  6. Arizona Wildcats −11.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair line Arizona -14, a 2.5-point disagreement with the current market.
    • Arizona home offense: +0.303 EPA/play; Iowa State away offense: +0.027 EPA/play.
    • Arizona is 5-1 with a +16.7 recent margin; Iowa State is 3-3 at +8.0.
    • The market already moved two points toward Arizona, leaving less than the opening value.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game total over 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game current FBS sample: Iowa State offense is +0.168 EPA/play against Arizona's -0.0348 defensive EPA/play allowed, a +0.2028 matchup gap.
    • Arizona offense is +0.2608 EPA/play against Iowa State's +0.0805 defensive EPA/play allowed, a +0.1803 matchup gap.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls in the red zone and the game finishes at 51 points or fewer.
  2. Arizona Wildcats 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's last five average +0.259 offensive EPA/play, .492 success rate and 2.93 points/drive.
    • Iowa State's corresponding averages are +0.155 EPA/play, .462 success and 2.15 points/drive.
    • Both live checks name Noah Fifita and Jaylen Raynor as the expected quarterbacks; no game-time decision was reported.
    • A 3.7-point edge is modest; one early turnover or short field can decide a low-possession half.
  3. Game 1st-half total under 30.5 pointsFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game points-per-drive averages are 2.93 for Arizona and 2.15 for Iowa State; about five drives each projects near 25 points.
    • Recent pace averages 28.0 and 29.2 seconds per play, with 67.6 and 70.8 plays per game; this is not an extreme possession environment.
    • Arizona's offense averages 2.93 points per drive and can clear the number with one short-field or explosive touchdown.
  4. First-half total over 26.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • First-half PPD: Arizona 3.147 and Iowa State 2.564; versus full-game baselines 2.887 and 2.320, the uplift is +0.252 PPD.
    • Raynor and Fifita are live-confirmed starters; combined PROE is .090 and explosive rate is .139.
    • Derived reference, not an independent sharp first-half line; model error could be several points.
  5. Arizona Wildcats −12
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Arizona 3 versus Iowa State 3; the two core measures agree, while levels do not corroborate.
    • Only two of three measures support Arizona; equal 3-versus-3 levels weaken the read.
  6. Iowa State Cyclones +12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model projects Arizona by 9.6, 2.9 points below the 12.5 market spread.
    • Iowa State's 81.5 pass-block and 85.7 rushing grades face Arizona's 67.3 pass rush and 68.5 run defense.
    • Iowa State's 80.7 defense grade can limit separation despite Arizona's stronger overall efficiency.
    • Arizona's recent offense leads Iowa State in EPA per play, .1925 to .1345, and explosive rate, .1461 to .1216.
  7. Iowa State Cyclones spread +11
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Score/allow form blends to roughly Arizona 28.7, Iowa State 24.3 before home adjustment, well below an 11-point margin.
    • Iowa State's 2026 defense grades 80.7 versus Arizona's 72.1; that gap supports a one-score resistance path.
    • The +10.5 to +11 rung costs only 0.95 probability points; no key number lies between, preserving the extra half-point cheaply.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona wins by 12 or more behind its +0.261 offensive EPA/play and 35.7 points per game.
  8. Game total over 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current scoring averages are Arizona 35.7 and Iowa State 29.7 points per game; matchup blend centers near 53.
    • Arizona (+0.261) and Iowa State (+0.168) both grade positively in offensive EPA/play; Arizona PROE is +14.9%.
    • The 50/51.5 rung gap sits beyond the empirical 47-point cluster; exact totals 41, 44 and 47 occur 296, 285 and 221 times.
    • Most likely non-win: the game finishes at 50 or fewer, with exactly 50 producing a push rather than a win.
  9. Game total over 53
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A simple FBS-only scoring blend projects 54.6 points, 1.6 above the 53-point rung.
    • Arizona averaged 35.8 points scored and 21.4 allowed across five FBS games; Iowa State averaged 28.0 and 24.0.
    • Arizona's offense averaged +0.259 EPA/play and Iowa State +0.155; both teams also cleared 0.12 explosive-play rate.
    • The five-game FBS sample is not opponent-adjusted; the simple blend may overstate the true total.
  10. Arizona Wildcats first-half spread NO 17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: Arizona averages 3.14 points/drive, +0.343 EPA/play, and 17.0% explosive plays; Iowa State averages 1.99, +0.094, and 10.6%.
    • Arizona leads 15, 3 with 0:41 left in Q1; the remaining half needs roughly six net Arizona points to break 17.5.
    • Own 2022, 26 FBS histogram: exact 17-point margins are 3.734% of 4,499 games; 17.5 sits just beyond a genuine college mass point.
    • NO loses if Arizona adds six net points before halftime; its live offense is posting 0.834 EPA/play with a 26.7% explosive rate.
  11. Arizona Wildcats first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona’s -11.5 full-game sharp line scales to a +5.75 first-half mean.
    • 4,454 FBS regular-season games from 2022, 26 have signed-margin SD 22.46; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 15.88, not 11.23.
    • Arizona’s 2026 profile leads Iowa State in PPD 2.887, 2.320, EPA/play .261, .168, explosive rate .153, .124, and pace is similar.
    • Full-game SD is scaled, not fitted to observed first halves; dependence, turnovers, and discrete scoring can widen the tails.
  12. Iowa State Cyclones over 19.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted EPA delta is +0.203: Iowa State offense averages +0.1680 EPA/play minus Arizona's -0.0349 EPA/play allowed across six games each.
    • Iowa State scored touchdowns on 8 of 12 red-zone trips (.667) over its last five games; the offense-side over trigger clears .62.
    • Confirmers: Iowa State success rate .4515 versus Arizona opponent success allowed .3886, and explosive rate .1239 versus Arizona opponent explosive rate .0987.
    • Both clocks are slow relative to the current FBS median: Iowa State 29.44 and Arizona 27.89 seconds per play versus 22.82.
  13. Arizona Wildcats spread −12
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's 50.5% success and 15.3% explosive rates exceed Iowa State's 45.1% and 12.4%; its recent record is 4-1 versus Iowa State's 2-3.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona wins by 11 or fewer, with Iowa State backdooring the spread after trailing.
  14. Total Points over 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game 2026 scoring blend using each offense and opponent allowance projects 53.0 points: Arizona 28.7, Iowa State 24.3.
    • REFERENCE is directionally supportive: over 52.5 is +112/$2,045 and over 53 is +119/$5,203; liquid team-total anchors are Iowa State over 19.5 (-118/$1,000) and Arizona over 31.5 (-102/$1,000).
    • Six games per team is a thin current sample; explosive plays, turnovers, red-zone conversion, defensive scores and overtime create a wide tail.

Questions

Who won Iowa State vs. Arizona?

The Arizona won 39–3 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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