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Vanderbilt vs. KentuckyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKroger Field
Vanderbilt3–4
17–34Final
Kentucky6–1
Score by period
Team1234T
VAN377017
UK014101034

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 51.5 50¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Kentucky's ESPN pregame projection is +14.46 points, supporting a game-state path where Vanderbilt scoring remains constrained.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-7 on this game · +26% return

  1. Kentucky Wildcats −10.55 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    5 modelsSaturday Board, EPA Mismatch +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Load-bearing margin factor: Kentucky's current averages are +0.155 EPA/play and 2.525 points/drive versus Vanderbilt's +0.095 and 1.873; modeled mean margin is Kentucky +12.3 with about 17-point SD, and the starters-by-position page lists Kenny Minchey and Jared Curtis.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky wins by 10 or fewer, including a Vanderbilt outright win, so the 10.5-point contract fails.
    EPA Mismatch
    • Season EPA layers favor Kentucky: +0.155 offensive EPA/play vs Vanderbilt +0.095; defensive EPA allowed .103 vs .184.
    • Recent five-game EPA gap widens: Kentucky offense .136 vs Vanderbilt .075, defense .089 allowed vs .234.
    • Kentucky is missing two expected starters, Sam Greene and Nic Anderson; replacements are expected, not officially confirmed.
    Rnj
    • Current-season FBS-only sample is 6 games each after excluding Austin Peay and Youngstown State; scoring-margin differential is Kentucky +2.7 versus Vanderbilt -10.3, or +13.0 points.
    • Latest three FBS games agree: Kentucky margin +3.3 versus Vanderbilt -23.0; Kentucky leads recent success rate 46.9% to 41.3% and points per drive 2.157 to 1.538.
    • Kentucky DE Tyler Thomas is Game Time Decision and WR Nic Anderson is Out; the expected lineup does not list Thomas as a projected starter, but the defensive rotation remains uncertain.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • ESPN pregame model projects Kentucky by 14.458 points and assigns an 84.5% win probability.
    • Kentucky season averages: +0.155 EPA/play, 50.6% success, 2.525 points/drive; Vanderbilt: +0.095, 46.1%, 1.873.
    • Kentucky's projected lineup is expected, not confirmed; Tyler Thomas and Cole Marszalek are game-time decisions.
  2. Game total over 51.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    2 modelsTempo Gap, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Gap
    • Fair total 56.0, a 4.5-point gap above the posted 51.5.
    • Combined current-season scoring averages are 56.3 points per game.
    • Vanderbilt quarterback Jared Curtis is expected, not officially confirmed; Blaze Berlowitz is ruled out.
    Long Way Home
    • The seven-game scoring blend is 56.3 points: Kentucky averages 32.7 and Vanderbilt 23.6 points per game.
    • Opponent-adjusted midpoint from each offense and the opposing defense is about 55.9 points, 4.4 above the posted 51.5.
    • Most likely loss: Vanderbilt stalls offensively while Kentucky controls pace, producing a total in the mid-to-high 40s.
  3. Game total under 51.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kentucky's ESPN pregame projection is +14.46 points, supporting a game-state path where Vanderbilt scoring remains constrained.
    • Kentucky's recent five-game offense averaged strong scoring output, creating late-game over risk if Vanderbilt cannot keep pace.
  4. Over 51.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle exact 51.5: Over -104 / Under -112; devigged Over probability is 49.0%.
    • Most likely loss: Vanderbilt stalls offensively or Kentucky controls tempo, leaving the game at 51 points or fewer.
  5. Kentucky Wildcats −10.5 spread
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  6. Kentucky Wildcats spread −10
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kentucky's defense allows +0.1034 EPA/play versus Vanderbilt's +0.1841; Kentucky also leads points per drive 2.525 to 1.873.
    • Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's recent +0.2069 offensive EPA/play and Jared Curtis's 274-yard outing produce a one-score game or a 10-point push.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Kentucky Wildcats to winFavorite
    +23%Won

    Taken at −440 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kentucky is 6-1 with a +6.9 average margin over its last seven; Vanderbilt is 3-4 at -6.1.
    • PFF team grades favor Kentucky 85.9-72.8, including offense 78.7-62.2 and defense 81.3-78.2.
    • Research grade 74/100 (B): projection and value gates pass; team-market L10 exact-line gate is N/A.
    • The 84.5% ESPN FPI figure is a published model estimate, not a calibrated probability supplied with error bands.
  2. Total points under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both sides show 3 book levels; two of three measures agree, with substantial raw stakes making a data-entry fluke less likely. Price is 45.25c (+121).
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; no independent sharp reference is used. Directional coherence check: backing under 49.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the direction: 3 levels under versus 3 over, so this is not a three-measure signal.
  3. Game total over 50
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring averages are Kentucky 32.7 and Vanderbilt 23.6 points, a 56.3-point combined baseline.
    • Kentucky’s offense is +0.155 EPA/play and Vanderbilt’s is +0.095; both teams post positive PROE above 11%.
    • Recent five-game totals average 55.0 for Vanderbilt and 58.0 for Kentucky, supporting scoring above this rung.
    • Most likely loss: the teams finish 49 or fewer after stalled red-zone drives, turnovers, or conservative play-calling.
  4. Vanderbilt Commodores spread +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kentucky’s 0.155 EPA/play and 32.7 points per game lead Vanderbilt, but the profile supports a margin cushion rather than a runaway assumption.
    • Vanderbilt’s 2026 losses include margins of 10 and 6; Kentucky’s recent wins include margins of 8, 1, 1 and 10.
    • Personnel gate checked: latest box leaders are Jared Curtis and Kenny Minchey; fresh game coverage lists both as starting quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky wins by 11 or more, exploiting Vanderbilt’s 0.184 defensive EPA allowed per play.
  5. Total Points under 52
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The liquid same-event team-total anchors are Kentucky under 31.5 (-119, $2,000) and Vanderbilt under 19.5 (-102, $2,000), summing to 51.
    • seven-game samples show slow pace at 28.63 seconds/play for Vanderbilt and 29.24 for Kentucky.
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, with cfb data as the projection context; Jared Curtis and Kenny Minchey led their latest pass-attempt rows and were current quarterbacks named in web reporting.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky converts its 32.71-point season average into 33-plus while Vanderbilt contributes enough for 53 or more.
  6. Kentucky Wildcats spread −13
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model gives Kentucky 84.5% to win and a +14.458-point margin, 1.458 points above this rung.
    • FPI rating is 12.531 for Kentucky versus 0.636 for Vanderbilt; recent form is Kentucky +8.8 versus Vanderbilt -14.2 over five games.
    • Kentucky -13 loses with a win by 12 or fewer; the model's 1.458-point cushion is modest.
  7. Kentucky Wildcats first-half spread NO 6.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2022, 26 regular-season sample has 4,454 completed FBS finals, empirical margin SD 15.18; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 10.74.
    • Kentucky averages +6.9 points/game margin in 2026 and Vanderbilt −6.1; blending that +13.0 data differential with Pinnacle's −11 full-game anchor gives a +12 full-game mean, or +6.0 at halftime.
    • Pinnacle −11 scaled to +5.5 at halftime agrees directionally with NO; exact college margin mass is 3 points (437) and 7 points (348), making 6.5 a live boundary.
    • No independent first-half sharp rung is posted; the exact-rung probability is a model-derived reference and is capped at LEAN.
  8. Kenny Darby over 58.5 receiving yards
    +86%Won

    Taken at −116 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent distribution: seven 2026 games average 62.3 yards (SD 22.3); a +2.5-yard role/matchup adjustment gives 61% over.
    • FanDuel -116 implies 53.7%; model probability is +7.3 points and +13.6% relative.
    • Darby is a 2026 starter by PFF snap-share data, with 148 snaps across his last three games and expected depth order 4.
    • Exact-line form is only 4-3 over 58.5 across seven games, not a complete L10; fallback caps this at low conviction.
  9. First-half total over 26.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season window: Kentucky 66.1 plays at 29.24 sec/play; Vanderbilt 67.9 at 28.63 sec/play; pace supports the observed 11.57 combined first-half drives.
    • The 28.6-point reference is scaled from a full-game sharp total, not an independent first-half sharp quote.
  10. Vanderbilt Commodores spread +11
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring cross-blend centers Kentucky roughly 9, 10 points ahead, below the +11 contract.
    • Vanderbilt averages 23.6 points and Kentucky allows 25.9; Kentucky averages 32.7 and Vanderbilt allows 29.7, supporting a competitive margin rather than a rout.
    • Kentucky’s season edge is real, but the market’s -11 baseline leaves a cushion against a one-score Kentucky win.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky’s +0.155 offensive EPA/play and Vanderbilt’s +0.184 defensive EPA allowed rate produce sustained explosive scoring.
  11. Total Points under 51
    0%Push

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Existing under 52 is held; the total moved to 51, so this is the permitted same-side new-line add, not a repeat.
    • The full-game ladder prices under 50 at +123 and under 50.5 at +117, while under 51 remains liquid and inside the price band.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky's 32.7-point scoring average combines with Vanderbilt's 23.6-point average to reach 52 or more.

Questions

Who won Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky?

The Kentucky won 34–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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