South Alabama vs. MarshallFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJoan C. Edwards Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| MRSH | 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMarshall Thundering Herd +1 48¢
Why Resting Money likes it: Book levels are tied 3-3; thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth supplies the two-measure signal with substantial raw stakes.
Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1227 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-7 on this game · −1% return
- South Alabama Jaguars spread −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines- Current six-game efficiency: South Alabama offense +0.249 EPA/play versus Marshall's +0.183 allowed; matchup supports the Jaguars.
- South Alabama's 3.19 current points/drive and 13.9% explosive rate lead Marshall's 1.70 and 11.1%; margin model makes cover fair at 53.7%.
- Most likely loss: Marshall's home-field edge, turnovers, or one explosive play keeps the game within 2.5 or wins it outright.
CFB HunterV2- FPI rates South Alabama -6.8 versus Marshall -16.5; the 9.6-point rating gap supports the side.
- Recent five-game EPA/play favors South Alabama offense 0.2785-0.1567; Marshall allowed +0.1588 EPA/play.
- South Alabama's recent defense allowed +0.2153 EPA/play and 34.5 points per game.
- Marshall Thundering Herd to win+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Resting Money- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
Long Way Home- Marshall home split: +0.166 offensive EPA/play, +0.066 defensive EPA/play allowed, and 28.3 points scored across three home games.
- South Alabama away split: +0.218 offensive EPA/play but +0.336 defensive EPA/play allowed, 44.5% success rate, and 40.7 points allowed across three road games.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's strong away offense converts its +0.218 EPA/play into enough explosive scoring to overcome Marshall's home edge.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live main spread is South Alabama -2.5; the 3.5-point rung is only one point beyond the sharp anchor.
- South Alabama's 2026 scoring margin is +0.2 over its last five, versus Marshall's -5.0; raw recent form supports a modest upward reweight.
- South Alabama has won three straight and Hollins is reported as the expected starter after taking over for Davenport.
- Marshall is at home, and the model's mean-margin adjustment remains modest relative to a 16-point college margin distribution.
- South Alabama Jaguars −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Alabama's six-game offensive EPA/play averages about +0.25 versus Marshall's +0.06.
- Jared Hollins and Marshall starter Carlos Del Rio-Wilson are confirmed in same-day/pre-game sources; Marshall's secondary allows 263.5 passing yards per game.
- South Alabama has two extra rest days after Thursday's game; Marshall last played Saturday.
- Marshall is at home and its defense has the better six-game EPA allowance profile than South Alabama's.
- South Alabama Jaguars to win−100%Lost
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Research grade 74/100 (B): team-market ML gate eligible; no player-prop exact-line gate applies.
- Six-game 2026 scoring blend: South Alabama projected 36.25 points, Marshall 28.25; raw margin +8.0.
- After an explicit 3-point home adjustment, projected South Alabama margin is +5.0; pooled 12-game margin SD is 18.8.
- The independent distribution is a transparent small-sample derivation, not a calibrated published probability model.
- Over 67 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 12 picks
- Marshall Thundering Herd +1+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth supplies the two-measure signal with substantial raw stakes.
- Book-level count is neutral at 3-3, so the third measure adds no confirmation.
- Judah Price under 68.5 rushing yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official Oct. 16 Marshall game notes list Price as the starting running back; the notes show 6 games played and 28 carries.
- Exact line: 2026 published logs went under 68.5 in 4 of 5; 2025 comparable logs went under 2 of 2.
- The current warehouse slate has no injury designation for Price; FanDuel's live board confirms the 68.5-yard market.
- The current sample is incomplete L10 with only five published rushing lines; 2025 supplies just two comparable games.
- Adrian Norton over 37.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official Oct. 16 Marshall game notes list Norton as the starting wide receiver; no current injury designation is on file.
- Exact line: 2026 published logs went over 37.5 in 3 of 4; 2025 comparable logs went over 3 of 8.
- South Alabama allows 264.8 pass yards per game, ranking 239th of 267: a bottom-11% pass-defense matchup.
- Only four 2026 games: the incomplete L10 fallback requires low conviction.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread −1−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- six-game 2026 sample: South Alabama offense is +0.2492 EPA/play against Marshall's +0.1835 defensive EPA allowed; Marshall offense is +0.0618 against South Alabama's +0.2153 allowed.
- South Alabama leads explosive rate .1389 to .1114 and points per drive 3.186 to 1.697; success rates are nearly level (.4809 vs .4799), making EPA and finishing the separator.
- Personnel gate cleared: Jared Hollins has continued as South Alabama's starter; current reporting identifies Carlos Del Rio-Wilson as Marshall's starter despite Zion Turner leading the latest box.
- Most likely loss: Marshall's home field and South Alabama's permissive +0.2153 defensive EPA allowed produce enough explosive scoring for a one-point-or-less result.
- Total points under 66.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- six-game scoring averages combine for 60.83 points, below the 66.5 market total.
- A cross-check blending each offense with the opponent's points allowed projects approximately 64.5 points.
- Marshall averages 22.0 points scored; its offense has stayed below 31 in five of six games.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's 56-49 and 52-35 games are the template, turning two weak defenses into a track meet.
- Marshall Thundering Herd spread +3.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Marshall has the live efficiency edge through Q1: 30.8% success on 13 plays versus South Alabama's 12.5% on eight.
- Marshall's offense is less negative at -0.540 EPA/play versus South Alabama's -0.672; the game remains 0-0 after Marshall missed a 49-yard field goal.
- The existing Marshall moneyline and under positions point in the same directional script: a low-scoring game staying within one possession.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's offense overcomes its poor opening efficiency with an explosive drive and wins by four or more.
Questions
Who won South Alabama vs. Marshall?
The Marshall won 20–13 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.