New Mexico State vs. Sam HoustonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalElliott T. Bowers Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 30 |
| SHSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew Mexico State Aggies to win 60¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: NMSU also leads recent EPA/play form, +0.03 offense versus Sam Houston’s -0.06.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-11 on this game · −29% return
- New Mexico State Aggies to win+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- NMSU also leads recent EPA/play form, +0.03 offense versus Sam Houston’s -0.06.
- At 59.5c, the edge is thin against the sharp reference, which implies roughly 59.9% for NMSU.
Long Way Home- early play-by-play: NMSU has +0.12 EPA/play and 41.7% success across 12 plays; Sam Houston is -1.02 and 25% across four.
- The 7-0 score came from NMSU's blocked punt recovered in the end zone, not sustained Sam Houston offense.
- Most likely loss: Sam Houston's 7-0 special-teams lead survives while NMSU's early yardage stalls.
- Game total under 47−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo BoardWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- six-game sample: NMSU offense +0.02 EPA/play vs SHSU defense +0.04 allowed; SHSU offense +0.02 vs NMSU +0.15 allowed.
- NMSU and SHSU average 23.7 and 19.5 points; combined 43.2, below the 47-point rung.
- Most likely loss: NMSU's +0.15 defensive EPA allowed plus Sam's pass-heavy PROE creates short fields and 48+ points.
Tempo Board- 47 full-game points is one above ProphetX's 24.5 + 21.5 team-total sum.
- six-game 2026 averages are New Mexico State 23.7 and Sam Houston 19.5, totaling 43.2 points.
- Both teams are Group-of-Five Conference USA programs, so this qualifies only as a LEAN at half stake.
- Under 47.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Load-bearing possession factor is approximately 21 adjusted combined possessions; current points per drive are only 1.75 for New Mexico State and 1.45 for Sam Houston, with both offenses near +0.02 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: early explosive plays or short fields create enough efficient scoring to reach 48 points.
- New Mexico State Aggies spread over 4.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp anchor is New Mexico State -3 at -105/-107; the 4.5 rung is only 1.5 points away.
- point margin SD centered on the -3 anchor, with college key-number reweighting, gives roughly 46% for NMSU margin over 4.5.
- New Mexico State's recent six-game scoring margin is -2 versus Sam Houston's -5; the Aggies also beat common opponent WKU 34-13.
- Adam Damante is described as the clear QB1, but practice reps for Trey Hedden and Kalani McCloud leave some rotation uncertainty.
- Sam Houston Bearkats +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Game under 34.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket US
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent fair probability is 30%; fair odds are approximately +233, versus the 24¢ market cost.
- Recent five-game scoring averages are 25.0 for New Mexico State and 19.2 for Sam Houston.
- Recent advanced points-per-drive were 1.70 and 1.36; Sam Houston’s recent offensive EPA was -0.06.
- New Mexico State scored 51 and Sam Houston 59 in recent games; explosive-play variance can break 34.5.
Show all 15 picks
- Sam Houston Bearkats +7.5+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - New Mexico State −5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both sides show 3 book levels; the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern clears two of three measures.
- Backing New Mexico State -5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; this is a hypothesis being tested.
- Equal 3-versus-3 book levels provide no third-measure confirmation.
- Over 46.5 total points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are Over 3 versus Under 3; neutral, but the thin-at-quote plus deep-total pairing supplies two supporting measures.
- Backing over 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. The price is 52.38c (-110 American).
- Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count is tied rather than corroborating Over.
- Sam Houston Bearkats to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 six-game EPA is nearly even offensively (.020 NMSU, .018 Sam), but Sam’s defense allowed .045 EPA/play versus NMSU’s .146.
- Sam Houston leads current-season success rate .446 to .436 and allows 24.5 points/game versus 25.7, supporting a tighter home-side projection than the market’s NMSU -3.
- QB gate cleared: Landyn Locke led Sam Houston’s latest box score with 30 attempts, Adam Damante led New Mexico State with 22, and current game-week reporting supports those QB1 assignments.
- New Mexico State has the better explosive-play rate (.139 versus .116) and scores 23.7 points/game, creating upset and late-cover volatility.
- Sam Houston Bearkats first-half spread over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION. 3,660 FBS finals (2022-25) produce a 14.61-point full-game margin SD; sqrt(2) scaling gives 10.33 first-half SD.
- Pinnacle posted New Mexico State -3 (-115); 2026 scoring averages imply +2.33, blended full mean +2.67 and first-half mean +1.33 for NMSU.
- Weather check: 74°F, north wind 5 mph, and 0% precipitation; no possession haircut applied.
- LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: roughly two probability points of model edge, so sampling variance dominates.
- Game total under 48−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- combined scoring average is 43.2 points (NMSU 23.7, Sam Houston 19.5), 4.8 below the posted 48.
- pace is 26.12/28.94 seconds per play, while explosive rates are .1391/.1158; the Bearkats' slower pace limits possession growth.
- current listing names Trey Hedden and Landyn Locke as starters; both are accounted for rather than assuming a quarterback absence.
- The latest NMSU box-score pass-attempt leader was Adam Damante, while the current listing names Trey Hedden; the personnel change adds uncertainty.
- Sam Houston Bearkats spread +4−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sam Houston's six 2026 games average +0.04 defensive EPA/play allowed versus New Mexico State's +0.15.
- The teams are nearly equal in offensive EPA/play (+0.02 Sam Houston, +0.02 NMSU), while Sam Houston's average success rate is slightly better (.446 vs .436).
- Most likely loss: New Mexico State turns its road favorite status into a multi-score win and clears the four points.
- The EPA sample is only six games per team and is not opponent-adjusted.
- New Mexico State Aggies game total under 46−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current-season scoring averages are NMSU 23.7 and Sam Houston 19.5, a 43.2-point baseline.
- Sam Houston has scored 3 points in each of its last two games; NMSU scored 3 and 34 in its last two.
- both offenses sit near 0.02 EPA/play, while neither team has produced a consistent explosive profile; 47+ needs a higher-end script.
- Most likely loss: one NMSU explosive play or short-field turnover converts a low-40s game into 47+.
- Game total under 46.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's 47 main total sits 2 points above its 22.5+22.5 team-total ladder sum of 45.
- the six-game 2026 scoring sample averages 23.7 New Mexico State points plus 19.5 Sam Houston points, or 43.2 combined.
- The same six-game sample shows slow offenses: 26.12 and 28.94 seconds per play, with 43.7% and 44.6% success rates.
- New Mexico State's defense allowed 0.15 EPA per play in the six-game sample, leaving Sam Houston short-field and scoring-upside risk.
Questions
Who won New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston?
New Mexico State won 30-24 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.