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Duke vs. VirginiaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScott Stadium
Duke4–2
19–16Final
Virginia4–3
Score by period
Team1234T
DUKE703919
UVA760316

Top model pick, graded

Won

Duke Blue Devils to win 46¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Duke's recent profile is stronger: 4-2 with a +15.7 average margin versus Virginia's 4-3 and +10.3.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-3 on this game · +1067% return

  1. Duke Blue Devils to win5 models agree
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

    5 modelsCFB Heater, Saturday Board Pairs +3
    Why 5 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Duke's recent profile is stronger: 4-2 with a +15.7 average margin versus Virginia's 4-3 and +10.3.
    • Virginia is at home and the sportsbook reference makes the Cavaliers a modest favorite.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Duke's six-game offense: +0.218 EPA/play versus Virginia's seven-game defensive allowance of +0.000; current-sample matchup edge favors Duke.
    • QB gate cleared: Walker Eget led Duke's last passing row; Beau Pribula led Virginia's, with current-game starter support from official/team web sources.
    • Virginia's current-season success rate is higher, .4894 to Duke's .4727, and the Cavaliers have home field.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures support Duke but the levels measure does not corroborate; backing Duke, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two measures support the read; the tied 3-3 book-level count keeps this below a fully corroborated order-flow signal.
    Long Way Home
    • Duke averages +0.218 EPA/play versus Virginia +0.161 through six and seven games.
    • Duke's explosive-play rate is 14.3% versus Virginia's 10.5%; season scoring is 31.7 versus 30.0 points per game.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia's home field turns the near-even projection into a narrow Cavaliers win.
  2. Duke Blue Devils spread +2.55 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    5 modelsSaturday Board, Drift +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Pinnacle exact rung: Duke +2.5 -108 / Virginia -2.5 -104; devigged Duke-cover probability is 50.5%.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia wins by 3 or more, with home field overcoming Duke's efficiency advantage.
    Drift
    • Model 54.5% on Duke +2.5 versus 50.5% Pinnacle devigged fair probability; gap +4.0p.
    • Duke leads current-season efficiency: +0.218 offensive EPA/play versus Virginia +0.161, with a 14.3%, 10.5% explosive-rate edge.
    • Virginia's home field and a one-score game can erase Duke's efficiency advantage; +2.5 loses on a Virginia win by three or more.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Pinnacle same rung: Duke +2.5 -107 and Virginia -2.5 -105; devigged Duke probability is 50.2%.
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Duke: current offense EPA/play .218 vs Virginia .161, defensive EPA allowed -.003 vs .000, PPD 2.72 vs 2.47, and explosive rate .143 vs .105.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia's home field turns the near-pick'em efficiency matchup into a three-point-or-more Cavaliers win.
    Rnj
    • FPI rates Duke +1.743 neutral; the game-specific FPI model makes Virginia only +0.174 at home.
    • Fair-margin anchor: Duke -0.174; Duke +2.5 creates a 2.326-point cushion, clearing the 1.5-point gate.
    • Duke's FBS sample is exactly five games, so the margin estimate remains noisy.
  3. Duke Blue Devils +2.53 models agree
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    3 modelsD1 Winner, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • +0.206 offensive EPA/play vs +0.083 for Virginia across five non-FCS games.
    • Duke allowed +0.055 defensive EPA/play versus Virginia's +0.105; Duke also had the stronger explosive-play profile.
    • Virginia's five-game non-FCS success rate was 46.4% versus Duke's 45.0%; the efficiency edge is not universal.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game Duke offense averages +0.2182 EPA/play versus Virginia's seven-game defense allowing +0.0004 EPA/play; the efficiency mismatch supports Duke staying inside the number.
    • FBS coverage gate clears: both are ACC teams with six or more current-season games; live pregame reporting and the official availability report support Walker Eget and Beau Pribula as the starters.
    • Virginia's .4894 success rate exceeds Duke's .4727, and the Cavaliers have home field.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Duke's 2026 FPI rating is 7.718 versus Virginia's 5.975; Duke also leads SRS 6.4 to 2.1.
    • Current opponent-adjusted PPA averages favor Duke's offense, +0.264 versus Virginia's +0.174, while success rates are effectively even.
    • Virginia's defense has the better 2026 defensive PPA average (-0.008 allowed versus Duke's +0.027).
  4. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +24900%Won

    Taken at +24900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke +123: last-five offense EPA/play is +0.273 versus Virginia's +0.101, with a +16.0 recent scoring margin.
    • Duke's recent explosive-play rate is 15.7% versus Virginia's 8.8%; Virginia's defense has allowed +0.117 EPA/play.
    • Brewers -176: Jacob Misiorowski owns a 1.80 ERA, 12.98 K/9 and .226 expected wOBA allowed versus Nick Martinez's 3.10 ERA, 5.45 K/9 and .307.
    • Brewers lineups were last-game projections, not confirmed; plate umpire and game-weather inputs were not yet published.
  5. Under 47 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Same-line Pinnacle is Over -107 / Under -109; devigged Pinnacle Under probability is 50.2%.
    • Load-bearing total factor: 144 combined current-season plays project about 20.5 drives; garbage-time-discounted combined PPD is approximately 4.1.
    • Three current-season blowout games require garbage-time discounting; six-game efficiency samples remain noisy.
  6. Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers over 47.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Show all 15 picks
  1. Duke Blue Devils 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own first-half estimate: Duke 50% versus Kalshi's normalized 41.9% substitute reference.
    • Last five: Duke averaged +0.264 offensive EPA/play, 49.3% success, and 15.3% explosive rate.
    • Last five: Virginia averaged +0.101 offensive EPA/play, 47.1% success, and 8.7% explosive rate.
    • Kalshi's own three-way ladder is the reference; no independent sportsbook 1H price is posted.
  2. Duke +2.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke +2.5 has no push; a Virginia win by exactly 2 is a Duke cover, unlike Duke +2, which pushes.
    • cfb_query: exact 2-point final-margin frequency was 2.664% across 2016-2025 FBS regular season and postseason games.
    • captured Pinnacle prices Duke +2.5 at -108; ProphetX offers the same half-point contract at -103.
    • The 2.664% estimate is league-wide, not Duke/Virginia-specific; this is not a directional projection.
  3. Duke Blue Devils NO over 2.5 first-half points
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Virginia -2.5 full game; halving mean gives Virginia +1.25 first-half points.
    • 2,790 FBS finals (2024, 26) have SD 15.52; square-root half-possession scaling gives 10.97, not naive 7.76.
    • Normal Virginia +1.25, SD 10.97 makes Duke over 2.5 equal 36.6%; NO equals 63.4%.
    • Only 1.4 probability points separate the 63.4% model from the 62c price; variance dominates this LEAN.
  4. Beau Pribula under 184.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 58.5% vs FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%: +5.7 points, +10.7% relative.
    • Empirical-normal model from seven 2026 regular-season games: 173.0-yard mean, 53.5-yard sample SD.
    • Exact 184.5 line is 5-2 under, 0 pushes, 7 decided games; this is the full comparable-season fallback, not a full L10.
    • Seven games is an incomplete L10; the fallback form rule forces low conviction and substantial estimation error.
  5. First-half total over 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke averaged 74.2 plays at 29.26 seconds/play; Virginia 70.0 at 29.63, supporting roughly 72 first-half plays and 11.5 drives.
    • Duke's +5.6% PROE and 14.3% explosive rate; Virginia's +5.3% PROE and 10.5% explosive rate support an upward first-half adjustment.
    • Only a one-point projection edge over 23.5; one empty red-zone trip or late drive can decide it.
  6. Duke Blue Devils under 49.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke, Virginia is 7-0 in the first quarter, but Virginia has -0.550 EPA/play, 25% success, and 0 explosive plays on its opening possessions.
    • Duke's early +0.438 EPA/play is driven by a 32-yard touchdown and a small sample; its next drive stalled at the Virginia 43.
    • The live 47.5 consensus total has not meaningfully separated from the pregame 47-point sharp reference despite seven points already scored.
    • The most likely loss is Virginia's offense finding rhythm after the early negative-efficiency sample and turning this into a normal shootout.
  7. Total points under 48
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team rungs under 21.5 plus under 25.5 sum to 47; full-game 48 supplies one point.
    • six/seven-game averages are 29.26/29.63 seconds per play, 5.6%/5.3% PROE, and 14.3%/10.5% explosiveness.
    • existing under 47 is held; market history moved the line to 47.5, permitting this same-side under 48 position.
    • Most likely loss: explosive plays or short fields push the game to 49 or more.
  8. Total points under 47
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX’s 47-point full-game rung is one point above its Duke 21.5 plus Virginia 24.5 team-total sum of 46.
    • QB gate passed: Walker Eget and Beau Pribula led their teams’ latest passing rows; current web reporting cross-checks both, and neither is listed out.
    • Current 2026 scoring averages still total 61.7 points per game, partly inflated by weaker opponents on both schedules.
  9. Duke Blue Devils spread +2
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke's 2026 offense averages +0.218 EPA/play versus Virginia's +0.161, with a 14.3% versus 10.5% explosive-play rate.
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; the claim relies on the live ProphetX ladder, not a same-line sharp reference.
    • Virginia is 4-0 at home, and the home side can win by exactly three or more to beat this ticket.

Questions

Who won Duke vs. Virginia?

The Duke won 19–16 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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