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UTSA vs. TulaneFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalYulman Stadium
UTSA6–1
42–19Final
Tulane3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
UTSA14714742
TULN760619

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total points over 49.5 59¢

Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1227 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-10 on this game · −36% return

  1. Tulane Green Wave to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +124 on DraftKings

    5 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • Tulane's PFF pass grade 77.4 and pass-block grade 63.6 exceed UTSA's 62.9 and 47.4.
    • Trace Johnson is projected to start for Tulane; Owen McCown is confirmed as UTSA's quarterback in current previews.
    • Market strongly favors UTSA at -148; the model may be overstating Tulane's home-field effect.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Tulane allowed 0.0426 EPA/play over its recent window versus UTSA's 0.0769.
    • Tulane's PFF team grade is 78.0 versus UTSA's 76.8; ESPN projects Tulane by 3.074 points.
    • UTSA is 6-1 with 0.2075 recent offensive EPA/play; Tulane is 3-3 with 0.0528.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • SRS is near-even, and Tulane has the home venue; UTSA's recent 6-1 record and stronger EPA offense are already reflected in its favorite price.
    • Selected over alternatives: UTSA -3.5 at 46¢, UTSA +2.5 at 62¢, Tulane first-half winner at 42¢, first-quarter Tulane at 40¢, and full-game under 53.5 at 54¢; none cleared the model's uncertainty-adjusted threshold.
    • Model range is wide at 44%-56%; the 7.6-point estimate-versus-market gap is sensitive to weighting assumptions.
    Long Way Home
    • UTSA's 6-1 record masks a modest +5.3 average margin; Tulane's recent six-game margin is +0.75 versus UTSA's +0.6.
    • Tulane's season defensive EPA allowed is 0.088/play versus UTSA's 0.114; home field improves the close-game read.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's higher season offensive EPA and 6-1 record translate into a road win.
  2. UTSA Roadrunners spread −32 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Opponent framing favors UTSA: UTSA offense minus Tulane defensive EPA allowed is +0.0613/play; Tulane offense minus UTSA defensive EPA allowed is -0.0691.
    • UTSA leads points per drive 2.617 to 1.734 and is essentially even in explosive rate, supporting a cover without requiring a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: Tulane's home field and 77.4 PFF passing grade versus UTSA's 62.9 generate enough efficient passing to keep the game within three.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • UTSA averages +0.149 offensive EPA/play and .482 success rate across 7 FBS games, versus Tulane's +0.044 and .406.
    • UTSA's +.105 offensive-EPA and +.076 success-rate gaps support laying the main 3 despite the near-even price.
    • The cfb lineup remains expected rather than official: Owen McCown and Kadin Semonza are projected starters, and no current X injury signal was found.
  3. Under 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing chances factor: 133 combined plays with slow 21.63/22.51-second pace and Tulane's 1.734 points per drive temper the 51.5 market.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's 11.9% explosive rate and 2.617 points per drive create enough chunk scores to clear 50.5.
  4. Game total under 53
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six current-season Tulane games: offense +0.0445 EPA/play versus UTSA's +0.1136 defensive EPA allowed, a -0.0691 matchup gap.
    • QB gate cross-check: latest boxes lead Owen McCown and Trace Johnson; a same-day Sports Illustrated pregame article expects both starters.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's offense and Tulane's home passing advantage combine for 54 or more points.
  5. Tulane Green Wave +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulane has 3 book levels versus UTSA's 2, corroborating the depth read with more queued prices.
    • Backing Tulane +5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX is the only reference: displayed depth can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among a few participants.
  6. Total points over 49.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 10 picks
  1. Game total over 52
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring baseline is 52.8 points: UTSA averages 32.3 and Tulane 20.5 through the latest preview.
    • UTSA posts +0.149 EPA/play and Tulane allows +0.088; UTSA's defense allows +0.114, supporting a favorable scoring matchup.
    • Pinnacle's 51.5 total and -112 over price corroborate the placement zone; ProphetX's 52 remains playable at the better rung.
    • Most likely loss: the game finishes 52 or fewer after stalled red-zone drives, turnovers or conservative second-half play-calling.
  2. Tulane Green Wave spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The key-three protection is undercharged; Pinnacle independently posts Tulane +3, corroborating the market's location near three.
    • Efficiency read is balanced around the key band: UTSA offense +0.149 EPA/play, Tulane defense allows +0.088 versus UTSA +0.114.
    • QB gate cleared: Owen McCown led UTSA's latest box with 38 attempts; Trace Johnson led Tulane with 21, and Oct. 23 reporting found no QB uncertainty.
    • Most likely loss: UTSA's stronger offense turns the current three-point market into a four-point win.
  3. First-half total under 30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pregame window: UTSA 70.4 plays at 25.82 seconds; Tulane 62.5 at 25.47; 0.92 stoppage factor yields 64.6 plays.
    • Current 14 points in Q1 leaves only 16.5 points of margin; one short-field touchdown damages the under.
  4. Total Points over 51.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample: UTSA averages 70.4 plays and Tulane 62.5; median pace is 26.17 and 24.45 seconds per play, with PROE of +10.9% and +6.7%.
    • UTSA posts 48.2% success and 11.9% explosiveness; Tulane adds 40.6% success and 12.0% explosiveness. Scoring averages combine for 52.8 points.
    • QB gate cleared: Owen McCown led UTSA's latest pass attempts and a current preview expects him to play; Tulane's Trace Johnson led its latest attempts and current reporting says he is the starter.
    • Most likely loss: Tulane's 20.5-point scoring average persists, UTSA's defense limits explosive possessions, and the game finishes at 51 or fewer.

Questions

Who won UTSA vs. Tulane?

The UTSA won 42–19 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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