Houston vs. UtahFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRice-Eccles Stadium

Houston6–1

13–21Final

Utah6–0

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	0	3	10	0	13
UTAH	0	0	7	14	21

Top model pick, graded

Won

Utah Utes −6.5 −115

Why Short Week likes it: Fair line Utah -8.5, a two-point edge over the unchanged market number.

Short WeekDown 9% this season · 25 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 11-10 on this game · +7% return

Utah Utes spread −6.53 models agree
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB +1
Why 3 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Non-FCS efficiency profile favors Utah: matchup net about +0.295 EPA/play versus Houston's +0.123.
- Utah's non-FCS explosive rate is 15.0% versus Houston's 13.4%, with 78.8 versus 75.2 average plays supporting the margin side.
- Most likely loss: Utah wins by 1-6, or Houston's late scoring turns a comfortable lead into a non-cover.
Key Number CFB
- 2026 net EPA/play favors Utah +0.366 (offense .296, defense allowed -.070) over Houston +.302 (offense .322, defense allowed +.020); home field shifts the mean toward Utah.
- Most likely loss: Utah wins by 6 or fewer; Houston's stronger .322 offensive EPA/play and Weigman's 343-yard, five-touchdown latest game create that path.
ProphetX Pairs
- Utah's 2026 defense averages -0.0703 EPA/play versus Houston's +0.0200 allowed; the structural defensive gap supports Utah margin.
- Utah is 6-0 with a +25.3 average margin; Houston is 6-1 at +18.3, and Utah has the home-field setting.
- Houston's offense has the slightly higher season success rate (0.5700 vs Utah's 0.5525) and can win early downs.
Houston Cougars to winLong shot2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, Resting Money
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Utah's stronger defense and home field hold Houston below the required outright-win result.
Resting Money
- Two of three measures agree: Houston is thin at the best price and deeper behind it; backing Houston, which is the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so the signal is not three-dimensional.
Utah Utes −6.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fair line Utah -8.5, a two-point edge over the unchanged market number.
- Utah home offense: +0.362 EPA/play; Houston away defense allows +0.190 EPA/play.
- Utah is 6-0 with a +25.3 recent margin; Houston is 6-1 at +18.3.
- Houston’s away offense still averages +0.312 EPA/play and can keep this inside one score.
Under 57.5 total
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- only opponent-adjusted distribution centers at 56.4 points; Under 57.5 fair probability is 54.2%.
- Load-bearing chances factor: 148.6 combined plays at 28.7/29.25-second pace models about 22 drives, limiting chances versus the 57.5 number.
- Most likely loss: Houston's 14.2% and Utah's 16.0% explosive-play rates produce enough chunk scores to reach 58.
Amare Thomas over 4.5 receptions
+134%Won
Taken at +134 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 20.7% target share: 7/33, 5/30, and 8/33 across the last 3 games; share CV is approximately 18.5%.
- Targets held while yards per target fell 18.0 to 6.2 to 5.4: stable opportunity versus collapsing efficiency.
- PFF route rates were 96.9%, 100.0%, and 88.6%; Houston attempted 33, 30, and 33 passes.
- Most likely loss: Thomas receives five to eight targets but misses the catch-rate rebound and finishes four or fewer receptions.
Houston Cougars spread +6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Their current global positions are meaningful: 60,017 and 4,912 Houston +6.5 contracts, both at 0.47 average entry.
- Utah is the sportsbook favorite around -6.5 and has won all six games; Houston’s recent defense allowed 32 points to Oklahoma State.

Show all 18 picks

Houston Cougars spread +6
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Seven-game Houston offense: +0.322 EPA/play and 57.0% success; six-game Utah defense allows -0.070 EPA/play, a +0.392 matchup gap.
- Utah offense versus Houston defense is a +0.276 EPA/play matchup; Houston's offensive gap is larger by roughly 0.116.
- Both Big 12 teams clear the FBS coverage gate with seven Houston and six Utah current-season games.
- Most likely loss: Utah's home field and -6.5 sharp reference convert its defensive edge into a win by seven or more.
Houston Cougars over 57
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Seven Houston games: +0.322 EPA/play offense versus Utah's -0.070 defensive EPA allowed, a +0.392 matchup gap.
- Six Utah games: +0.296 EPA/play offense versus Houston's +0.020 defensive EPA allowed, a +0.276 matchup gap.
- Most likely loss: Utah's 82.8 defense and 83.2 coverage grade suppress Houston, leaving 56 or fewer; exactly 57 pushes.
Game 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The 31-33 first-half projection implies roughly 14-16 points in the opening quarter using the desk's 45-50% share.
- Houston's five-game offense averaged +8.5% PROE, 54.8% success, and +0.253 EPA per play.
- Both quarterback gates are cleared: Weigman led Houston last game with 33 attempts; Utah's official preview names Dampier without uncertainty.
- First-quarter variance is extreme: one explosive touchdown, turnover, or missed field goal can move the result several points.
Game 1st-half total over 28.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Five-game averages produce 75.4 Houston plays and 74.8 Utah plays at roughly 28-29 seconds per snap.
- Houston averaged 3.391 points per drive, 54.8% success, and +0.253 EPA per play; projection is 31-33 first-half points.
- Utah averaged 3.044 points per drive, while Houston's offense supplies a second efficient opening-script unit.
- Utah's recent defense allowed -0.0558 EPA per play; stalled Houston drives could keep the half below 29.
Total points over 58.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Utah Utes −6
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Two of three measures agree: Utah is thinner at the best price and deeper behind it; backing Utah -6, which is the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference rather than independent confirmation; resting orders may be stale or concentrated with one participant.
Game total under 55.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent five-game totals average 53.6 across the two teams, 3.9 points below the sharp 57.5 reference.
- Utah's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.0558; Houston's is +0.1431, favoring Utah control.
- Season offense is efficient on both sides, but Utah's defense is the matchup's major scoring restraint.
- Houston's +0.3218 season offensive EPA and Utah's +0.2955 create a 60-plus path if explosiveness converts.
Total Points under 58
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- FBS-only offense/defense blend centers near 53.3 points.
- Utah’s defense allows -0.0703 EPA/play; Houston allows +0.0200, limiting Utah’s scoring advantage.
- Most likely loss: Weigman and Dampier convert explosive possessions while Houston’s weaker defense allows Utah past 30.
Game total under 58
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- only midpoint: Houston (33.0 scored + Utah 15.0 allowed)/2 plus Utah (35.0 + Houston 23.5)/2 centers at 53.3 points.
- Utah's FBS defense allowed 15.0 points per game and -0.0558 EPA/play; Houston's defense allowed 23.5, limiting the cleanest over path.
- Both offenses average at least 33 points against FBS opponents; efficient early drives can erase the projected gap.
Game total over 57.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA remains positive: Houston +0.277 and Utah +0.211; success rates are .570 and .553.
- DraftKings moved from 56.5 to 57.5; the upward move agrees with the thesis but still leaves room versus the projection.
- Utah's defense has allowed -0.070 EPA per play and Houston +0.020; the defenses can suppress finishing drives.
Utah Utes first-half spread NO 2.5
+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2,786 2024, 26 FBS regular-season margins have SD 15.53; square-root half scaling gives SD 10.98.
- Pinnacle full-game Utah -6.5 scales to a +3.25 first-half mean at the exact 2.5 rung.
- The exact college margin histogram’s largest mass is 3 points (261 of 2,786), directly adjacent to this 2.5 rung.
Utah Utes spread −8.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Utah averages 40.2 points for and 14.8 against (+25.3 margin); Houston averages 39.3 and 21.0 (+18.3).
- Utah's defensive EPA allowed is -0.070/play versus Houston's +0.020; the 0.090-play gap is the matchup separator.
- Utah's explosive-play rate is 16.0% versus Houston's 14.2%; home field supports a margin above the sharp -6.5 reference.
- Most likely loss is Utah winning by 1-8; the alternate requires a nine-point margin.

Questions

Who won Houston vs. Utah?

The Utah won 21–13 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.