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USC vs. WisconsinFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCamp Randall Stadium
USC6–1
7–24Final
Wisconsin4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
USC07007
WIS377724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 50.5 total 50¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Model total mean 48.5 with 55.5% under probability; no push on 50.5.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-29 on this game · −72% return

  1. USC Trojans to win7 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    7 modelsDrift, EPA Mismatch +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Drift
    • Power model 58.5% USC: USC leads Wisconsin in off EPA/play .265-.162, success .536-.436 and explosiveness .155-.125.
    • USC averages 36.4 points; Wisconsin averages 27.5, while USC's FPI rating is 14.966 versus Wisconsin's 9.031.
    • Wisconsin's defense has allowed only .029 EPA/play versus USC's .210, creating a route to suppress the stronger USC offense.
    EPA Mismatch
    • FPI rating gap: USC 14.966 versus Wisconsin 9.031, with stronger opponent-adjusted market-independent baseline.
    • USC season offense leads: +0.265 EPA/play, 53.6% success, 15.5% explosive rate versus Wisconsin +0.162, 43.6%, 12.5%.
    • Wisconsin defense is the clear counter: +0.029 EPA allowed versus USC +0.210, and grades 92.5 versus 79.5.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • USC leads 2026 form in offense EPA/play (.2649 vs .1617) and success rate (.5360 vs .4362).
    • USC is 6-1; the Trojans have 14 days rest versus Wisconsin's 4-2 record and seven days rest.
    • Wisconsin owns the stronger PFF defense grade (92.5 vs USC's 79.5) and better season defensive EPA allowed (+.029 vs +.210).
    BETALAB 6.0
    • USC leads current 2026 FPI 14.966-9.031 and SP+ 15.3-8.3; SRS also favors USC 9.5-8.1.
    • Research quality: 87/100; three independent model/efficiency layers support the favorite despite the road venue.
    • Wisconsin is at home and owns the stronger current defense grade; USC's recent defensive EPA allowed is a poor 0.3382/play.
  2. USC Trojans spread −2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Pinnacle exact -2.5: USC -106 / Wisconsin -106; devigged USC cover probability is 50.0%.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin wins outright or USC wins by two or fewer, failing the -2.5 rung.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • USC averaged +0.265 offensive EPA/play and 3.38 points/drive across 7 current games, versus Wisconsin +0.162 and 2.40 across 6.
    • Independent margin distribution centers USC +3.6 with approximately 17-point SD; USC -2.5 fair probability is 55.4%.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's home defense holds USC near its Washington/Oregon output and the Badgers win outright or by one to two points.
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Their entries average about 51.3¢; Polymarket US is still offering USC -2.5 at 52¢.
    • College lineups are projected rather than official; USC and Wisconsin availability can still change before kickoff.
  3. USC Trojans spread −32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • USC's 92.5 PFF offense and 90.4 passing grade materially exceed Wisconsin's 73.8 offense and 58.9 passing grade.
    • Pace/PROE favor a normal-to-fast script: USC 25.36 seconds/play and +0.124 PROE versus Wisconsin 24.05 and +0.051; sportsbook reference moved from 3 to 2.5, while ProphetX retains the 3 at plus money.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's 92.5 PFF defense and +0.029 EPA allowed keep USC to a one-score win or an outright home loss.
    Long Way Home
    • USC averages 36.4 points and +11.3 margin; Wisconsin averages 27.5 points and +10.8 margin through the current-season sample.
    • ESPN's live pregame projection has USC ahead by 3.627 points; ProphetX offers the main -3 at +113 (46.95c).
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's stronger defense (0.029 EPA/play allowed versus USC's 0.210) holds USC to a one- or two-point win, or wins outright.
  4. USC Trojans spread −3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Week
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • The adjacent USC -3 is +114 (46.73¢); the ladder charges only 3.63 probability points for crossing the key three.
    • Directional check favors USC: 2026 offensive EPA/play .265 versus Wisconsin defensive EPA allowed .029; PFF offense grades are 92.5 versus 73.8.
    • Most likely loss: USC wins by 1, 3 points, especially exactly three, which loses at -3.5.
    Long Week
    • USC leads Wisconsin in offensive EPA/play .265 to .162, success rate .536 to .436, and explosive rate .155 to .125.
    • Against similar competition, USC beat Penn State 31-23; Wisconsin beat Penn State 24-20, with USC showing the stronger offense.
    • USC allows +0.210 defensive EPA/play versus Wisconsin's +0.029, a large matchup vulnerability on the road.
  5. Game total over 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The over-momentum group is larger and more recent than the visible high-quality under position.
    • USC and Wisconsin use expected rather than confirmed college lineups; multiple game-time decisions remain.
  6. Over 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Show all 24 picks
  1. Game total over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects approximately 10.0 drives per team and 53.5 points: 28 USC, 25.5 Wisconsin.
    • USC averages 71.9 plays, 0.265 offensive EPA/play, and 53.6% success across seven 2026 games.
    • Wisconsin averages 0.162 offensive EPA/play; USC allows 0.210 defensive EPA/play and 25.1 points per game.
    • Wisconsin's defense allows only 0.029 EPA/play and could suppress finishing drives below the projection.
  2. Under 50.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total mean 48.5 with 55.5% under probability; no push on 50.5.
    • Load-bearing chances factor: USC averages 71.9 plays and Wisconsin 61.7; the 133.5-play combined profile plus Wisconsin's 51-play latest outing limits modeled scoring chances, while opponent-adjusted scoring is 48.5.
    • Most likely loss: USC converts its 17.9% recent explosive rate into short-field or chunk-play scores and the total reaches 51.
  3. USC Trojans −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC’s last-10 net EPA is 19.9 points per 100 plays better than Wisconsin’s.
    • USC has a 14-day rest interval versus Wisconsin’s seven days.
    • USC’s PFF offense grade is 92.5 versus Wisconsin’s 73.8; the net-efficiency differential clears the 2.5-point situational threshold.
    • Wisconsin’s PFF defense grade is 92.5 and home field can neutralize USC’s offensive edge.
  4. USC Trojans first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle's exact first-half h2h is USC -135 / Wisconsin +109, a 54.6% de-vigged USC share among decisive outcomes.
    • Assigning Kalshi's 10.5% tie mass to the sharp conditional split produces an estimated 48.8% USC first-half win probability; 46c leaves 2.8 probability points.
    • USC trails 0-3 with 0:23 left in Q1 and has already thrown two interceptions; live variance can overwhelm the reference.
  5. USC Trojans first-half spread NO 3.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2024, 26 regular-season FBS sample has 2,777 games, margin SD 15.545; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.99.
    • Season-to-date efficiency blend plus the live 3, 0 Wisconsin lead produces a first-half USC margin mean near -2.0; P(USC margin ≤3.5) is about 70%.
    • Kalshi yes_bid 0.35 / yes_ask 0.36 are fractions, i.e. 35¢/36¢; buying NO at 65¢ uses 1−yes_bid.
    • Wisconsin’s early 3-point lead may be a single-event outlier; USC’s explosive offense can still turn the half quickly.
  6. Game total over 51.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game USC offense averages +0.2649 EPA/play against Wisconsin's six-game +0.0290 defensive EPA allowed: a +0.2359 matchup gap.
    • Wisconsin averages +0.1617 offensive EPA/play against USC's +0.2099 defensive EPA allowed, giving both offenses a path to efficient scoring.
    • The sportsbook reference total is 50.5; the venue rung remains 51.5, but the efficiency and pace read still points above the posted threshold.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's 92.5 PFF defense suppresses USC's high-end offense and the game finishes at 51 or fewer.
  7. Game 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game points-per-drive averages are 3.19 for USC and 2.62 for Wisconsin.
    • USC's recent offensive EPA/play averaged about +0.24, while Wisconsin's averaged about +0.17; both offenses can generate an early score.
    • A first-quarter sample is roughly five possessions per team; one punt, turnover, or missed field goal can decide the ticket.
  8. Game 1st-half total over 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent-game drive estimate gives roughly 30 first-half points: about 5.5 USC drives at 3.19 points/drive plus 4.7 Wisconsin drives at 2.62.
    • The drive-count conversion uses a rough plays-per-drive assumption because recent pace fields contain anomalous entries; realized possessions can be lower.
  9. USC Trojans 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC's last five average +0.244 offensive EPA/play, versus Wisconsin's +0.169.
    • EPA matchup differential favors USC: +0.275 versus Wisconsin's offense against USC's defense at -0.169.
    • USC averages 50.9% success, +12.8% PROE and 3.19 points/drive; Wisconsin is at 44.5%, +3.8% and 2.62.
    • Both quarterbacks are expected rather than officially confirmed; the live USC and Wisconsin checks identify Maiava and Joseph but do not provide a final coin-toss announcement.
  10. Wisconsin +3
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing Wisconsin +3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; no independent source validates the order-flow hypothesis.
  11. Total Points over 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 2026 scoring baseline is 36.4 USC points plus 27.5 Wisconsin points; USC's defense allows +0.2099 EPA/play, creating a Wisconsin contribution path.
    • PFF grades support USC scoring quality: 92.5 offense; Wisconsin's 92.5 defense is the counterweight, but USC's pace, PROE and explosiveness supply the matchup edge.
    • Existing over 49.5 is held; the ProphetX number moved to 51, so this is the permitted same-side new-line add, not a blind repeat.
    • Wisconsin's 92.5 defense and 92.2 coverage grade can force field goals or hold USC below 28 points.
  12. Total Points over 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game USC and six-game Wisconsin samples produce 71.9 and 61.7 plays per game at 25.36 and 24.06 seconds per play.
    • REFERENCE is coherent: over 48.5 is -127, over 49.5 is -114, over 50.5 is +101; liquid team-total anchors imply 49 combined points.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's 92.5 PFF defense, especially 92.2 coverage, forces field goals and holds USC below 30 while Wisconsin stays near its recent 7-point output.
  13. USC Trojans spread −2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC averages +0.265 FBS EPA/play and 53.6% success versus Wisconsin at +0.140 and 43.8%.
    • Pinnacle shows USC -2.5 at -106; ProphetX offers the better -2 rung at -107.
    • Wisconsin's FBS defense allows only +0.024 EPA/play; that unit can keep USC inside one score.
  14. USC Trojans first-half spread NO 2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4,454 completed 2022, 26 regular-season FBS finals have empirical margin SD 15.18; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 10.74.
    • Season-to-date points-for/against blend centers the full-game USC margin near +0.2; the independent Pinnacle +2.5 USC spread scales to +1.25 at halftime.
    • the scaled full-game sharp mean also leaves the 2.5 rung above the first-half center, agreeing directionally with NO.
    • No independent sharp first-half rung is posted; Kalshi adjacent-rung pricing is a VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, so this is capped at LEAN.
  15. First-quarter total over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USC averages 71.9 plays at 29.38 seconds/play and Wisconsin 61.7 at 28.18; blended pace is 28.8 seconds/play before stoppage adjustment.
    • recent attempts resolve Jayden Maiava and Colton Joseph as the starters; live preview confirms both, with no QB injury uncertainty reported.
    • The 12.5-point derived reference is only about two points above 10.5; one stalled scripted drive can erase the cushion.
  16. First-half total over 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • valid 2026 pace is 29.42 USC and 28.18 Wisconsin seconds/play; combined offense averages 20.03 drives.
    • 9.2 projected first-half drives: (35.9×0.92÷7.29) + (30.8×0.92÷6.07).
    • Derived same-rung reference is not an independent first-half quote; full-game pricing may already capture matchup defense.
  17. USC Trojans @ Wisconsin Badgers over 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; the thin-quote and deep-total measures agree, with substantial raw stake on the thin side.
    • Backing Over 52, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; this is not an independently established statistical edge.
  18. Game total under 50
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 50 pushes at exactly 50; under 50.5 loses at 50, so the rules differ.
    • CFB history: exactly 50 points occurred 146 of 10,371 games, a 1.408% push mass.
    • adjacent 50.5 prices imply roughly 48.7% wins after removing the 1.408% push mass.
    • The estimated win chance is inferred from ProphetX's adjacent rung, not an independent projection model.

Questions

Who won USC vs. Wisconsin?

The Wisconsin won 24–7 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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