Ole Miss vs. TexasFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Ole Miss5–1

27–34Final

Texas4–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MISS	3	0	14	10	27
TEX	10	14	0	10	34

Top model pick, graded

Won

Caleb Odom over 3.5 receptions −110

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Target share was 16.7% (6/36), 16.7% (5/30), and 17.6% (6/34) over the last 3 games; mean 17.0%, CV 2.8%.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 12-12 on this game · +0% return

Ole Miss Rebels to win3 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour +1
Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater
- Texas is at home and the sharp reference prices Ole Miss near 41.8%, so the estimated edge is small.
Heater Two-Hour
- College lineups and late availability are not officially served in the CFB feed, leaving quarterback and injury uncertainty.
Resting Money
- Book levels are tied 3-3; two measures qualify, and the raw stakes are far above a few-hundred-dollar noise threshold.
- Directional check: backing Ole Miss Rebels, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp reference; the order-flow hypothesis is unproven and may not reflect predictive information.
Texas Longhorns to win3 models agree
+65%Won
Taken at −154 on FanDuel
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, ProphetX Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System
- ESPN's published matchup model gives Texas a 70.9% win projection and predicts a 7.59-point home margin.
- At -154, FanDuel's break-even is 60.6%; my adjusted 67% estimate clears it by 6.4 percentage points.
- The ESPN projection is a published model, not calibrated by this engine; its large gap from the sharp market may be model error.
ProphetX Pairs
- ESPN pregame projection: Texas 70.9% to win and a 7.59-point projected margin; reference timestamp 12:03 AM PDT.
- Six FBS games: Texas allows -0.091 EPA/play versus Ole Miss at +0.091; Texas also holds the home field.
- Ole Miss has the stronger offense: +0.273 EPA/play, 55.1% success and 13.6% explosive rate versus Texas at +0.172, 47.7% and 12.5%.
Long Way Home
- Texas has a 0.192 live EPA/play and 66.7% success rate; Ole Miss is at -0.464 and 33.3%.
- Texas converted a long opening drive into the 3-0 lead; Ole Miss opened with a three-and-out.
- Only one drive per side and 15 logged plays; early EPA is an extremely small, volatile sample.
Caleb Odom over 3.5 receptionsHigh conviction
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Target share was 16.7% (6/36), 16.7% (5/30), and 17.6% (6/34) over the last 3 games; mean 17.0%, CV 2.8%.
- Yards per target fell from 12.6 in the prior game to 6.2, 5.8, and 7.8; opportunity held while efficiency cratered.
- Route rate rose 72.7% → 80.0% → 92.9%; Ole Miss posted 36, 30, and 34 pass attempts with positive PROE in all three.
- Most likely loss: Ole Miss leads early, shifts run-heavy, and Odom finishes three receptions despite his stable pregame role.
Over 55 total
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total mean 56.4 with 53.3% win probability, 2.0% push mass, and 44.7% loss probability.
- Load-bearing chances factor: roughly 23 combined modeled drives from 71.3 and 70.5 plays per game; Ole Miss and Texas average 3.11 and 2.55 points per drive, with explosive rates of 13.6% and 12.5%.
- Ole Miss left tackle Terez Davis is listed game-time decision in the 3:00 PM projected lineup; his absence could reduce passing efficiency.
Game total over 55.5
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Six-game combined scoring average is 67.7 points: Ole Miss scored 225 and Texas scored 181.
- Most likely loss: Texas suppresses Ole Miss while its offense fails to exploit Ole Miss's weak defense, leaving 55 or fewer.
Ole Miss Rebels spread +3
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ole Miss +3 is graded at 50.74¢ with $22,387 offered at the exact contract.
- Defensive counterpart favors the Rebels' efficiency profile: Texas allows -0.0905 EPA/play, while Ole Miss allows +0.0914; the +3 cushion is important.
- Most likely loss: Texas home field and Arch Manning exploit Ole Miss's +0.0914 defensive EPA allowed for a win by four or more.

Show all 20 picks

Game 1st-half total under 26.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The five-game points-per-drive averages are 3.10 for Ole Miss and 1.90 for Texas; matchup adjustments project roughly 25.5 first-half points.
- Ole Miss's fast recent pace increases possessions, but Texas's weaker 0.456 success rate limits the opposing contribution.
- Ole Miss's 24.35-second recent pace can create extra first-half possessions and erase a one-score projection gap.
Ole Miss Rebels 1st-half winner
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ole Miss averaged +0.288 offensive EPA/play and 0.560 success rate across its last five games.
- Texas averaged 0.456 offensive success and 1.90 points per drive across its last five.
- Script matchup favors Ole Miss: its offensive EPA profile is materially stronger than Texas's recent defensive baseline.
- Texas has home field and a live 1H tie outcome, which makes a 42% market side less straightforward than full-game strength.
Ole Miss Rebels +6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- BETALAB margin estimate: Texas by 2.5; +6.5 supplies roughly four points of modeled protection.
- Ole Miss averages +0.273 offensive EPA/play, 55.1% success rate, and 3.11 points per drive this season.
- Texas defense is excellent at -0.091 EPA/play allowed, but its offense averages only +0.172 EPA/play and 2.55 points per drive.
- Texas home field and its 91.0 team grade could turn a 2.5-point projection into a margin above seven.
Texas Longhorns under 30.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Texas scored 28 or fewer in five of six 2026 games; its last five average is 24.4 points.
- Texas averages only 47.7% offensive success and 0.172 EPA per play this season.
- Hollywood Smothers is officially out, while the 84° Austin forecast has only a 20% shower chance.
- Ole Miss has allowed 0.091 defensive EPA per play this season, creating explosive-score risk.
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ole Miss +3.5 wins if Texas wins by exactly 3; Ole Miss +3 would push on that margin.
- Historical CFB 2018-25: exact 3-point final margins occurred 659/6,887 times, or 9.569%.
- ProphetX prices +3.5 at -118 (54.13¢) versus +3 at +101 (49.75¢), only a 4.38¢ implied-price gap for the extra win state.
- The 9.569% mass is an all-CFB 2018-25 reference, not a matchup-specific forecast of the Texas margin.
Ole Miss Rebels spread +3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent scoring-margin form is +13.7 for Ole Miss and +12.3 for Texas; the adjusted scoring blend points near a field goal.
- Key-number density favors the cushion: exact 3 margins occur 18.813% versus 6.779% for exact 4 across the empirical 2014-2026 CFB sample.
- Sharp reference is aligned: the captured market centers near Texas -3/-3.5, while ProphetX’s +3.5 preserves the key-three protection.
- Most likely loss: Texas wins by 4 or more behind a defense allowing -0.0906 EPA/play versus Ole Miss’s +0.0914 allowed.
Texas Longhorns spread −3
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Texas allows -0.091 defensive EPA/play across six 2026 games, while Ole Miss allows +0.091; that 0.182 defensive gap offsets Ole Miss's offensive EPA advantage.
- Texas has the home field and a slower 24.15-second pace against Ole Miss's 20.91; the matchup supports Texas controlling possessions rather than a pure shootout.
- ProphetX venue price is -106 versus the captured Pinnacle -3 at -111; SHARP REFERENCE only, not the edge source.
- Ole Miss owns the stronger offense: +0.273 EPA/play, 55.1% success, and 13.6% explosiveness versus Texas at +0.172, 47.7%, and 12.5%.
Game total over 54.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ole Miss: 0.273 EPA/play, 55.1% success, 3.11 points/drive; Texas: 0.172, 47.7%, 2.55.
- Opponent adjustment trims the raw rates; projected score is Ole Miss 31.5, Texas 27.5, fair total 59.0.
- 82°F, 5-mph wind, minimal rain; Texas lost Colin Simmons and Ole Miss has multiple secondary absences.
- Texas scored 24 or fewer in three of its last four; repeated red-zone stalls can keep this below 55.
Texas Longhorns first-half spread over 4.5
+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- full-game sharp home spread is Texas -3.5; half-time mean is +1.75 Texas margin.
- 2,732 FBS regular-season finals from 2024-26 give empirical margin SD 15.59; sqrt-half-possession scaling gives first-half SD 11.03, not 7.80.
- QB gate cleared: Trinidad Chambliss and Arch Manning each led his team's last three passing games; live pregame results identify the same matchup.
- The first-half SD is scaled from a full-game distribution, not observed first-half margins; possession dependence can break the sqrt(2) approximation.
First-half total over 27.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- six-game medians are 24.36 and 27.07 seconds/play; blended 25.72 supports about 70.7 first-half plays and 11.83 combined drives.
- PROE averages .1546 Ole Miss and .0926 Texas; explosive rates are .1360 and .1250. Their combined 12.7% rate signal lifts the derived reference to 30.9.
- This is a scaled full-game reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; model error of several points is plausible.
Under 52.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3; the thin-at-quote and deep-in-total measures agree, with substantial raw stakes. Backing under 52.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The independent board centers the full-game total around 53.5-54.5, so +121 at 52.5 is an alternate rung without independent sharp validation.
Texas Longhorns −5.5
+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3; the thin-at-quote and deep-in-total measures agree, with substantial raw stakes. Backing Texas -5.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Texas has lost its last two games in the warehouse sample, including 24-27 in each; the order-flow read can simply be wrong.
Texas Longhorns spread −4
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; ESPN FPI matchup model gives Texas a 70.9% win projection and predicts a 7.59-point home margin.
- Texas rates higher in both live vendor systems: FPI 23.598 vs 18.759; SP+ 21.1 vs 17.1.
- Texas has allowed -0.091 defensive EPA/play this season versus Ole Miss at +0.091; that defensive matchup supports margin separation.
- Most likely loss is Texas winning by only 1-3 points; the spread price is unusually generous but the margin still has high variance.
Total Points over 55
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 67.7 points; Ole Miss averages 37.5 and Texas 30.2 before matchup adjustment.
- Trinidad Chambliss and Arch Manning led the latest passing boxes; a live Oct. 24 report updated at 5:30 p.m. CT identifies both as the quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: Texas's -0.0906 defensive EPA/play and 17.8 points allowed per game suppress Ole Miss below 25 while Texas stalls.

Questions

Who won Ole Miss vs. Texas?

The Texas won 34–27 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.