Yale vs. PennsylvaniaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFranklin Field
Yale3–2
21–24Final
Pennsylvania2–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YALE | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| PENN | 14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPennsylvania +7.5 53¢
Why House Rules likes it: Pennsylvania +7.5 wins on an exact 7-point Yale margin; adjacent Pennsylvania +7 pushes instead.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +79% return
- Yale Bulldogs to win−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Pennsylvania +7.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pennsylvania +7.5 wins on an exact 7-point Yale margin; adjacent Pennsylvania +7 pushes instead.
- Exact 7-point margins occurred in 7.797% of completed CFB games from 2018-2025 (537 observations).
- ProphetX charges only 3.24 cents more for +7.5 than +7: 53.49¢ (-115) versus 50.25¢ (-101).
- The 7.797% key-number rate is broad CFB history, not Yale-Penn-specific; game-level margin mass may differ.
- Yale Bulldogs under 49.5 total points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: a simple five-game offense/defense blend projects roughly 47 points versus the 49.5 market total.
- Penn's last five games averaged 35.4 combined points; Yale's averaged 58.2; the ten-game baseline is 46.8.
- Yale averages 31.0 points for and 27.6 against; Penn averages 17.6 for and 17.8 against, producing a matchup blend near 47.
- Most likely loss: Yale's recent defensive leakage combines with an improved Penn quarterback situation to create efficient scoring.
- Pennsylvania Quakers to win+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; reference label: NO REFERENCE.
- Penn's defense allows -0.113 EPA/play versus Yale's +0.038 allowed, a substantial defensive matchup edge for the home underdog.
- Penn has allowed 17.8 points per game across five 2026 games; Yale's scoring margin is only +3.4, below the market's seven-point spread.
- Most likely loss: Penn's 17.6-points-per-game offense stalls while Yale's +0.129 offensive EPA converts enough drives to win.
Questions
Who won Yale vs. Pennsylvania?
The Pennsylvania won 24–21 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.