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Utah State vs. Texas StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUFCU Stadium
Utah State2–4
17–20Final
Texas State3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
USU630817
TXST707620

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 60 51¢

Why Drift likes it: Projected total 55.1: Texas State 40.0 PPG and Utah State allows 23.5; Utah State 14.5 PPG and Texas State allows 32.2.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-7 on this game · +30% return

  1. Game total under 603 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Texas State and Utah State average 40.0 and 14.5 points this season; the 54.5-point combined baseline sits 6 points below the 60.5 market context.
    • Texas State's offense is +0.280 EPA/play with a 53.5% success rate; Utah State is -0.105 EPA/play with a 37.9% success rate.
    • Texas State allows 32.2 points per game, so Utah turnovers or short fields could produce an unexpectedly high Aggies total.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • FBS-only results average 49.4 combined points (Texas State 35.4, Utah State 14.0), 10.6 below 60.
    • Texas State averages +0.233 offensive EPA/play and 53.4% success against FBS opponents; Utah State averages -0.096 EPA/play and 36.9% success.
    • Texas State's FBS defense allows 36.6 points per game, so its offense can create a high-scoring game script.
    Long Way Home
    • A simple six-game offense/defense blend projects roughly 55.1 points: Texas State 40.0 scored/32.2 allowed, Utah State 14.5/23.5.
    • Utah State’s offense is -0.105 EPA/play with a 37.9% success rate; Texas State’s offense is strong, but the Aggies remain the weaker scoring side.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State sustains its 40-point scoring pace while Utah State finds short fields or late scores.
  2. Utah State Aggies to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • Texas State leads recent form materially: +0.361 EPA/play and 55.4% success rate versus Utah State at -0.096 and 36.9%.
      Resting Money
      • Two of three measures agree: Utah State is 3.48x thinner at the best quote and 38.12x deeper across the ladder; raw thin-side size exceeds the few-hundred-dollar robustness rule.
      • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, the depth asymmetry is ProphetX's own book, not an independent confirmation.
      • Longshot outcome: the quoted 17.09¢ implies roughly an 83% Texas State win before any adjustment; one upset is still a low-frequency event.
    • Under total 60
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected total 55.1: Texas State 40.0 PPG and Utah State allows 23.5; Utah State 14.5 PPG and Texas State allows 32.2.
      • Utah State offense averages -0.105 EPA/play, 37.9% success and 12.8% explosiveness across six games.
      • Texas State allows 0.111 defensive EPA/play and 32.2 points per game, creating a clear shootout route.
    • Under 60 total
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model total distribution: mean 57.9, SD 14.5; Under 60 wins 55.5%, pushes 1.0%, loses 43.5%.
      • Pinnacle main total is 59.5; its exact same-rung 60 quote is Over +101 / Under -118, devigging Under to 52.1%; model gap is 3.4 points.
      • Most likely loss: Texas State converts its 15.8% explosive rate and Utah State short fields into enough scoring for 61 or more.
    • Texas State Bobcats spread −14
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six-game efficiency gap favors Texas State: +0.280 versus Utah State -0.105 EPA/play, and 3.05 versus 1.18 points/drive.
      • Independent margin distribution: Texas State mean margin about 15.7, SD about 17; -14 wins 53.5%, pushes 4.1%.
      • Pinnacle main board is -13.5; exact -14 reference is Texas State -105 / Utah State +14 -107, devigging Texas State to 51.2%.
      • Most likely loss: Texas State wins by 14 or fewer after Utah State forces stalled red-zone drives.
    • Texas State Bobcats first-half spread NO 9.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • mean ≈7.5 and SD ≈11.02 produce ≈57.2% for NO at the exact 9.5 rung.
      • Pinnacle’s full-game Texas State spread is -14; half-scaling supports a mean near 7.0, below 9.5.
      • The 2026 sample is only six games per team; Texas State’s 66-point outburst makes the upper tail wide.
    Show all 17 picks
    1. Texas State Bobcats spread −13
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six-game FBS sample: Texas State’s +0.2803 offensive EPA/play meets Utah State’s +0.0170 defensive EPA allowed, a +0.2633 matchup gap.
      • Latest 2026 PFF card favors Texas State 90.3 overall and 83.4 offense versus Utah State at 71.8 and 57.5.
      • Sportsbook reference is mostly Texas State -13.5; that is context only, while ProphetX supplies the placement price and size.
      • Most likely loss: Utah State’s defense suppresses Texas State enough for a 13-point-or-less home win; its +0.017 defensive EPA allowed is materially better than Texas State’s +0.1111.
    2. Game 1st-half total under 30.5 points
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last five 2026 games: Texas State averaged 3.53 points per drive; Utah State averaged 1.13.
      • Texas State averaged 81.2 plays at 23.6 seconds per play, but Utah State averaged only 60 plays at 26.3 seconds.
      • Conservative opening-script estimate is roughly 26, 28 first-half points, below the 30.5 threshold.
      • Texas State's latest game produced 5.08 points per drive, so the five-game efficiency sample has a high-end outlier.
    3. Utah State Aggies spread +13.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • BETALAB estimate 58.0%; fair price 58c; uncertainty range 53, 62%.
      • ESPN matchup model projects Texas State by 9.84, below the 13.5-point market number.
      • Texas State leads recent EPA and success rate, but Utah State’s stronger defense and +13.5 provide protection.
      • Utah State’s offense averages -0.105 EPA/play and 37.9% success; sustained inefficiency can produce a blowout.
    4. Total points over 57.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Total depth stake: Over $3,501 vs Under $2,719 (1.29 ratio; Over is deeper).
      • The ProphetX ladder is the sole reference; no independent statistical model or sharp-line validation is being claimed.
    5. Texas State Bobcats −15
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Total depth stake: Texas State $9,706 vs Utah State $5,503 (1.76 ratio; Texas State is deeper).
      • Book levels: Texas State 3 vs Utah State 2; all three measures align, with large raw stakes beyond a single stale quote.
      • The ProphetX ladder is the sole reference; no independent statistical model or sharp-line validation is being claimed.
    6. Total Points under 58
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six-game scoring midpoint using each offense and opponent allowance is approximately 55.1 points: Utah State 23.3, Texas State 31.8.
      • Adjacent full-game under offers point in the same direction; the sportsbook reference total is 60.5, while team-total centers sum to 61.
      • Most likely loss: Texas State converts its 3.15 recent points per drive and Utah State reaches 20-plus, producing 59 or more.
    7. Game total under 59.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six-game pace sample: Texas State averages 79.7 plays and Utah State 65.2; the Aggies' lower possession output limits the upper tail.
      • Points per drive are 3.05 for Texas State versus 1.18 for Utah State; Utah State's offense is -0.105 EPA/play with a 37.9% success rate.
      • Opponent context still leaves Utah State's offense below this matchup's scoring bar: Texas State allows +0.111 defensive EPA/play, while Utah State's defense allows only +0.017.
      • Texas State averages 40.0 points and a 15.8% explosive-play rate; Brad Jackson has 1,439 yards and a 77.6 average adjusted QBR.
    8. Utah State Aggies over 13.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at +100 on FanDuel

      RnjDown 65% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • FPI neutral differential: 7.479 Texas State points; ESPN’s projected home margin is 9.84.
      • Home-field term: 9.84 minus 7.479 equals 2.361; final fair margin is Texas State -9.84.
      • Executable spread is Texas State -13.5 / Utah State +13.5; 3.66 points of margin value favor Utah State.
      • Utah State’s full-season defense EPA allowed .017 is better than Texas State’s .151; FPI’s defensive component favors Utah State by 4.570.
    9. First-half total under 30.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • six-game averages are 65.2 plays/12.0 drives for Utah State and 79.7 plays/12.5 drives for Texas State.
      • Blended pace is 24.8 seconds/play: approximately 72 first-half plays, or about 6.0 Utah State plus 6.25 Texas State drives.
      • PROE is +0.128 Utah State and -0.012 Texas State; explosive rates are 12.8% and 15.8%. Applying the resulting 5.8% combined-PROE uplift adds 1.5, projecting 27.6 points.
      • The 5.8% first-half uplift is a structural proxy, not a separately calibrated sample; this is a LEAN, not a recommended tier.
    10. Texas State Bobcats spread −15
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • my estimate makes Texas State roughly a 17-point favorite, while Pinnacle has Texas State -14 at -105.
      • Texas State averages 0.280 offensive EPA/play, 53.5% success, and 40.0 points; Utah State averages -0.105 EPA/play, 37.9% success, and 14.5 points.
      • Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE. This is a one-leg ticket, so there is no combination tax.
      • Most likely loss: Texas State wins by 14 or fewer, with a late Utah State score especially dangerous.
    11. Total Points under 59
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Existing under 58 is held; the current number has moved to 59, so this is the permitted same-side new-line add rather than a blind repeat.
      • Texas State scored 63 and 66 in two of its last three; Utah State's defense averages positive allowed EPA across the six-game sample.

    Questions

    Who won Utah State vs. Texas State?

    The Texas State won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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