North Carolina Central vs. Delaware StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAlumni Stadium (DE)

North Carolina Central2–5

31–12Final

Delaware State4–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
UNC	7	3	7	14	31
DEL	6	0	0	6	12

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 55.5 61¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-0 on this game · +104% return

Game total under 55.5
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Under 52.5 total
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 54.5% Under; four-book devigged exact-52.5 reference 50.9%; gap +3.6p.
- Seven-game scoring blend projects 50.9 points: DSU averages 23.4 scored/25.3 allowed; NCCU 23.0/30.1.
- Offensive EPA averages are modest: DSU -0.024, NCCU +0.022; explosiveness 12.7% and 10.8%.
- Projected, not official, QBs are Nelson Layne and Ui Ale; FCS has no official injury feed and no X-signal row.
North Carolina Central +5.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Exact five-point final margins occurred in 253 of 10,371 CFB games, an empirical 2.439% mass (2014-25).
- ProphetX prices +5.5 at 51.22c versus +5 at 50.50c: only a 0.72c premium for converting that push into a win.
- The 2.439% exact-margin rate is broad 2014-25 CFB history, not matchup-specific.
North Carolina Central Eagles +5.5
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection, live score is Delaware State 6, North Carolina Central 7 at 4:36 of Q1; NCCU has a 64.3% offensive success rate on 14 plays versus DSU's 33.3% on six.
- Projection, NCCU has sustained drives and two explosive gains; DSU's scoring came from one 26-yard touchdown before a failed extra point.
- DraftKings live board has NCCU +4.5 at -118; ProphetX offers the same direction with an extra point at -154.
- The sample is only 20 live plays, and NCCU's -0.2165 EPA per play is worse than its success rate suggests.
North Carolina Central Eagles under 43.5 total pointsLong shot
+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; reference label: NO REFERENCE, no sharp book posts this exact 43.5 rung.
- Last-five scoring averages combine to 42.4 points: North Carolina Central 20.8, Delaware State 21.6.
- Recent six-game offensive EPA is near neutral: North Carolina Central +0.027, Delaware State -0.024 per play.
- Most likely loss: one explosive or special-teams score pushes a low-scoring game above 43.5.

Questions

Who won North Carolina Central vs. Delaware State?

The North Carolina Central won 31–12 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.