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Middle Tennessee vs. Florida InternationalFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPitbull Stadium
Middle Tennessee3–3
26–23Final
Florida International3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
MTSU7610326
FIU808723

Top model pick, graded

Won

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win 23¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-18 on this game · −19% return

  1. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to winLong shot2 models agree
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Heater Two-Hour
  2. Florida International Panthers spread −102 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • 6-game defense: FIU allows 14.7 points/game with -0.112 EPA/play; MTSU allows 28.3 with +0.170 EPA/play.
    • FPI rates FIU -9.152 versus MTSU -18.276; ESPN projects FIU by 12.4 points; power rating makes FIU -10 54.5%.
    • MTSU offense is stronger: +0.025 EPA/play versus FIU -0.045 and 13.4% explosive rate; it can keep the margin inside ten.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • six-game 2026 sample: FIU allows -0.1116 EPA/play versus MTSU's +0.0255 offensive EPA/play; the Panthers own the defensive mismatch.
    • FIU's offense is -0.0455 EPA/play against MTSU's +0.1704 defensive EPA/play allowed, creating the softer scoring matchup for the home favorite.
    • FIU's offense has produced only -0.0455 EPA/play, so red-zone inefficiency can turn territorial control into a short win.
  3. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +102 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsShort Week, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Short Week
    • MTSU’s offense is +0.025 EPA/play versus FIU’s -0.045; explosive rate favors MTSU 13.4% to 12.5%.
    • My fair spread is FIU -7.5, giving 2.5 points of value against DraftKings -10.
    • MTSU’s defense has allowed +0.170 EPA/play, versus FIU’s -0.112; FIU’s defensive edge is the key counterargument.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Cross-efficiency estimate makes FIU about a five-to-six-point favorite, versus a 10-point market handicap; fair line is approximately Middle Tennessee +5.5.
    • MTSU's offense has a positive season EPA/play (+0.026) and 0.175 defensive-adjusted PROE, while FIU's offense is -0.045 EPA/play.
    • MTSU's defense is the largest threat: +0.170 EPA/play allowed and 28.3 points conceded per game can turn a close game into a double-digit loss.
  4. Game total under 47.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Six-game scoring blend: 24.0 FIU plus 18.8 MTSU projects 42.8 total points.
    • FIU allows -0.112 defensive EPA/play; MTSU allows +0.170, supporting a lower combined scoring projection.
    • Most likely loss: MTSU's weak defense creates short-field FIU touchdowns despite FIU's inefficient offense.
    Tempo Board
    • Opponent-defense matchup: FIU allows -0.1116 defensive EPA/play, while MTSU allows +0.1704; that suppresses the Blue Raiders' scoring path more than it creates a clean shootout.
    • ProphetX's liquid main rung is 45, and liquid team-total anchors FIU 27.5 plus MTSU 17.5 also sum to 45; under 47.5 carries structural cushion.
    • Most likely loss: FIU converts MTSU's +0.1704 defensive EPA allowed into sustained explosive drives and the game reaches 48 points.
  5. Game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game sample: FIU allows 14.7 points/game with -0.112 defensive EPA/play; MTSU averages 22.8 points and +0.026 offensive EPA/play.
    • FIU running back Anthony Carrie is out; Miami forecast is breezy with a 50% shower/thunderstorm chance.
    • Total moved 45.5 to 46.5; the added point offsets the market move, with DraftKings under now graded at -105.
    • Most likely loss: FIU exploits MTSU's +0.170 defensive EPA/play allowed for early explosive scores despite the weather.
  6. Under 46 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total mean 44.7 with SD 14.2; fair Under 46 is 53.5%.
    • Possession convergence: 138.3 combined current-season plays, including MTSU's 61.5 plays and 25.74-second pace.
    • FIU's defense allows -0.112 EPA/play; combined current scoring averages 42.5 points through six games each.
    • Most likely loss: MTSU's +0.170 defensive EPA allowed creates short fields and FIU converts them efficiently.
Show all 23 picks
  1. Maguire Anderson under 5.5 receptions
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-three yards per target were 9.7, 6.3, 11.5; share stayed role-level while latest production spiked.
    • Route rates were 89.5%, 100.0%, 91.7%, confirming recurring full-time opportunity.
    • FIU is a 10.5-point favorite, creating fourth-quarter starter-snap risk for Anderson.
    • Most likely loss: FIU stays competitive enough for Anderson's full route load and he converts six receptions.
  2. Florida International Panthers first-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • derived reference from Pinnacle FIU -10 and 46.0 total, scaled to a first-half margin distribution; no exact sharp first-half line exists.
    • FIU led at halftime in all 3 prior home games; MTSU led at halftime in 0 of 4 prior road games.
    • FIU's season defense allows -0.112 EPA/play versus MTSU's +0.170 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Only six 2026 games inform the team inputs; home/road halftime samples are 3 and 4 games, respectively.
  3. Under 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season efficiency points to roughly 42.5 fair total: FIU scores 19.7/game; MTSU allows 28.3, while MTSU scores 22.8 and FIU allows 14.7.
    • FIU's defense is the matchup strength: -0.112 defensive EPA/play allowed versus MTSU's modest +0.026 offensive EPA/play.
    • Both quarterbacks are established: Roman Gagliano has nine consecutive starts; JJ Kohl led FIU's latest game and is identified as FIU's QB in its current preview cycle.
    • MTSU's defense allows +0.170 EPA/play and 28.3 points/game, creating a clear path for FIU to exceed its offensive baseline.
  4. Under 46.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean 42.75 points: FIU projection 24.00, Middle Tennessee projection 18.75.
    • Normal model with 16.63-point SD estimates 58.9% under 46.5.
    • Six-game current-season scoring: FIU 19.67 for/14.67 against; Middle Tennessee 22.83 for/28.33 against.
    • Only six current-season games per team; Middle Tennessee includes a 0-55 blowout.
  5. 1st-half total under 23.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game points-per-drive averages are 1.97 FIU and 1.68 Middle Tennessee.
    • At roughly 5.5 first-half drives each, the bottom-up projection is about 20.1 points.
    • Middle Tennessee's last-five offense posted -0.043 EPA/play and 43.3% success; FIU's defense allowed -0.126 EPA/play.
    • The drive estimate extrapolates full-game rates into a five-game first-half sample.
  6. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game CFB averages: FIU offense -0.045 EPA/play and MTSU offense +0.025; neither offense supplies a strong sustained scoring baseline.
    • FIU allowed -0.112 defensive EPA/play on average; combined with MTSU's 0.448 success rate, the matchup points below 48.
    • MTSU allowed +0.170 defensive EPA/play and a 0.134 explosive-play rate, creating a backdoor over path.
  7. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread +12
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opponent averages show MTSU at -0.043 offensive EPA/play versus FIU at -0.085; after charging FIU's defensive edge, I estimate 58% cover probability.
    • DraftKings/Pinnacle showed FIU -10 and FanDuel -10.5; that is context only, not the edge itself.
    • FIU's defense is materially better by the same sample: -0.107 defensive EPA allowed versus MTSU's +0.177.
  8. Game total under 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Net EPA favors FIU, +0.066 to MTSU -0.145; opponent quality was nearly identical.
    • FIU allows -0.112 EPA/play; MTSU's offense is only +0.025 EPA/play.
    • The teams average 42.5 combined points, below the 45.5 total; both played October 13.
    • MTSU is more explosive, and one or two chunk plays can break a low total.
  9. Florida International Panthers spread NO 6.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game FIU -10.0 implies a 5.0-point first-half mean; current-season team margin gap (FIU +5.0, MTSU -5.5) gives 5.25 blended.
    • 2026 season-to-date: 930-game full-game margin SD is 16.87; square-root half scaling gives a 1H SD of 11.93, not 8.44.
    • Computed college margin mass is concentrated at 3 (355), 7 (280), 10 (160), and 14 (150); the 6.5 rung sits beside the 7-point mass, so this remains a lean rather than a size-up.
    • The 7-point college mass is near this rung and may be stronger in first halves than the normal approximation assumes.
  10. Florida International Panthers −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on BetRivers

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair-margin arithmetic: +9.124 neutral FPI rating gap plus +3.291 game-context increment equals FIU +12.415.
    • Five current-season FBS games each; latest-three FBS margins are FIU +3.3 per game versus MTSU -20.7.
    • Season EPA: FIU defense allows +(-0.1263) EPA/play versus MTSU +0.1772; success rate is 46.3% versus 43.3%.
    • Expected, not officially confirmed, quarterbacks; a late change could erase this 2.9-point margin edge.
  11. James Resar over 29.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −116 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 62.0%; five-game 2026 receiving-yard distribution centers at 32.4 yards.
    • 4-1 over record at 29.5, zero pushes; incomplete L10 sample is disclosed, not treated as a full L10.
    • Middle Tennessee allows +0.170 defensive EPA/play, 73rd-most favorable matchup of 319 eligible teams.
    • The line is close to Resar's 32.4-yard mean; his 20-yard game loses the ticket.
  12. Game total under 47
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game sample: MTSU offense +0.0255 EPA/play versus FIU defense -0.1116 EPA/play allowed; reference label SHARP REFERENCE.
    • FIU offense is -0.0455 EPA/play, while FIU's defense is the stronger unit; the under case is defensive and tempo-driven, not payout-driven.
    • MTSU's defense allows +0.1704 EPA/play; short fields or several FIU explosive drives can push this past 47.
  13. First-half total over 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game averages are MTSU 25.74 sec/play and 10.5 drives, FIU 22.59 sec/play and 11.0 drives; 10.75 first-half drives before weather.
    • FIU’s official preview does not name its starter; JJ Kohl has the last-three-game attempt plurality and a same-day post names him, but a late switch remains possible.
  14. Florida International −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing Florida International, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Hypothesis is being tested against outcomes.
    • REFERENCE only; no independent same-line reference validates the order-flow interpretation.
  15. Total points under 46.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring averages combine for 42.5 points (FIU 19.7, Middle Tennessee 22.8), four below 46.5.
    • FIU allows 14.7 points per game across six completed games; its -0.153 defensive EPA/play allowed supports regression after the early scores.
    • Most likely loss: the 15 points scored by 5:39 of Q1 are not an outlier and both offenses sustain the early pace.
  16. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread +10
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game scoring margins imply roughly FIU +5.25, four-plus points below the posted FIU -10 spread.
    • MTSU owns the better 2026 offensive EPA profile: +0.0255/play versus FIU at -0.0455/play.
    • Fresh form favors the dog: MTSU won 33-30 last week while FIU lost 24-27; ProphetX improves on Pinnacle's same-line -104.
    • MTSU's defense has allowed 28.3 points per game and +0.1704 EPA/play, the clearest route to an FIU blowout.
  17. Total points under 46
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game scoring averages project 42.5 combined points (FIU 19.7, Middle Tennessee 22.8).
    • Florida International allows 14.7 points per game and -0.112 defensive EPA/play across six games, supporting a lower-scoring home side.
    • Single-leg ticket avoids the venue's documented combination tax; the quoted contract is the full-game total.
    • Most likely loss: Middle Tennessee's explosive offense (13.4% explosive-play rate) repeats its 33-point Delaware outing and pushes the game over.

Questions

Who won Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International?

The Middle Tennessee won 26–23 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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