Who deserves the Group of 5 playoff bid?
Boise State, on résumé, if Maddux Madsen's knee holds up. Liberty plays at the same level per play but has a 4% chance, and UTSA's 7-1 is the shakiest of the four.
Boise State is the clear favorite; Liberty plays at the same level with a 4% chance
Non-power FBS teams with 6 or more wins, by FPI playoff chance
| Team | Record | Adj. net EPA/play | Rank of 138 | FPI playoff % | Strength of record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 7-1 | +0.200 | 37th | 61.9% | 19th |
 UTSA | 7-1 | -0.003 | 71st | 16.3% | 22nd |
 New Mexico | 7-1 | +0.143 | 43rd | 15.2% | 32nd |
 Liberty | 7-1 | +0.198 | 38th | 4.3% | 40th |
 North Texas | 6-2 | +0.040 | 64th | 2.0% | 43rd |
 Louisiana Tech | 6-2 | +0.106 | 45th | 1.6% | 36th |
 Memphis | 7-2 | -0.007 | 72nd | 0.6% | 49th |
 North Dakota State | 7-2 | -0.104 | 82nd | 0.0% | 58th |
 James Madison | 7-2 | +0.021 | 66th | 0.0% | 59th |
 Ohio | 6-2 | -0.181 | 91st | 0.0% | 67th |
 Toledo | 6-2 | -0.092 | 81st | 0.0% | 73rd |
 Western Michigan | 6-3 | -0.188 | 92nd | 0.0% | 75th |
 South Florida | 6-2 | -0.179 | 88th | 0.0% | 72nd |
 Air Force | 6-2 | -0.204 | 101st | 0.0% | 71st |
 Jacksonville State | 6-2 | -0.154 | 85th | 0.0% | 69th |
Boise State deserves the bid today. It has the best strength of record of any non-power team (19th in FBS), and ESPN's FPI and SP+ rate it the best team of the four.
Per play, Boise State (37th) and Liberty (38th) are tied after adjusting for schedule. Liberty's schedule is so weak that FPI gives it a 4% chance. UTSA's record outruns its play by about two wins.
Adjust for schedule and Boise State and Liberty end up level
Raw, Liberty is 2nd in FBS per play, behind only Notre Dame. Adjusted for opponents it drops to 38th, because its seven FBS opponents average 107th. Boise State barely moves (19th to 37th), so the two finish level.
Schedule adjustment drops every contender; Boise State and Liberty finish level
- ESPN's ratings break the tie for Boise: FPI has Boise 32nd and Liberty 49th, SP+ has Boise 29th and Liberty 45th.
- New Mexico's defense is the real thing: 15th in FBS after adjustment. Its offense is 86th.
The committee picks the résumé, not the best team
"Group of 5" is the long-standing name for the conferences outside the power leagues; with the rebuilt Pac-12 there are now six of them, so some outlets say "Group of Six." From 2014 to 2025, the top non-power team in the final CFP rankings led all non-power teams in strength of record 10 times in 12 seasons. It led in SP+ only 4 times.
The committee's top non-power team was the best team in the group only 4 times in 12 years
Highest-ranked non-power team in each season's final CFP rankings
| Season | Team | Record | Final CFP rank | SP+ rank (non-power) | Strength of record (non-power) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Boise State | 11-2 | 20th | 2nd | 1st |
 2015 | Houston | 12-1 | 18th | 11th | 1st |
| 2016 | Western Michigan | 13-0 | 15th | 4th | 1st |
 2017 | UCF | 12-0 | 12th | 1st | 1st |
| 2018 | UCF | 12-0 | 8th | 2nd | 1st |
| 2019 | Memphis | 12-1 | 17th | 2nd | 3rd |
 2020 | Cincinnati | 9-0 | 9th | 1st | 1st |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | 13-0 | 4th | 1st | 1st |
 2022 | Tulane | 11-2 | 16th | 2nd | 1st |
| 2023 | Liberty | 13-0 | 23rd | 4th | 1st |
| 2024 | Boise State | 12-1 | 9th | 1st | 1st |
| 2025 | Tulane | 11-2 | 20th | 7th | 3rd |
- Houston 2015 (12-1) was the committee's top pick while ranking 11th among non-power teams in SP+. Liberty 2023 (13-0) was 4th.
- This year's strength-of-record order: Boise State 19th, UTSA 22nd, New Mexico 32nd, Liberty 40th.
UTSA has won its close games. Liberty has won by 23 a game
UTSA's résumé is built on four one-score wins. Liberty's margin vs FBS teams (+23 a game) is the biggest of the four, against the weakest opponents.
UTSA won four one-score games. Liberty won its last six by 16 or more
Boise State7-1 · one-score 2-1UTSA7-1 · one-score 4-0New Mexico7-1 · one-score 2-1Liberty7-1 · one-score 1-1- Against FBS teams, all four are 6-1. Against their actual schedules, our model expected 4.9 wins for Boise State, 4.1 for UTSA, 5.5 for New Mexico and 6.1 for Liberty.
- UTSA wins by 4.4 points a game vs FBS teams; its per-play level predicts +2.8. A 4-0 record in one-score games does the rest.
Team by team: the players behind the records
84.4Maddux Madsen's PFF passing grade, 21st of 122 FBS QBs
1,054Dylan Riley's rushing yards, most in FBS- Madsen's knee is the swing factor. He left Texas State in the 4th quarter after "a hard shot near his left knee" and watched the rest on crutches (AP). On SI expects him to miss Colorado State. Backup Max Cutforth threw three late touchdowns.
90.4Kam Davis's PFF offense grade (603 yards, 87 carries)- The two games that hurt: a 20-13 loss at James Madison and a 24-23 win over FCS Gardner-Webb.
0.8%Owen McCown's big-time throw rate (PFF grade 81st of 122)- Its best win, 42-19 at Tulane, came with six takeaways (AP). Tulane ranks 90th per play.
90.4Austin Brawley's PFF defense grade, with 4 interceptions- The defense is the real part: 15th per play after adjustment. The offense is 86th.
Everyone has Boise State first. Few mention Liberty
- Brad Crawford, CBS Sports, Nov. 1: "Boise State is lucky to be left standing as the Group of Six favorite after Week 9." CBS still projects Boise as the No. 12 seed.
- Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report, Oct. 31: "a second loss would have dropped them below teams like UTSA and New Mexico," with UTSA "the potential next team up for a playoff bid if the Broncos falter."
What the data adds: history backs the consensus on Boise State. Liberty plays at Boise's level and better than UTSA or New Mexico, the teams named as next in line, but if Boise slips the committee's habits still favor their records.
No title game required, so the last four games decide it
This year the spot goes to the highest-ranked non-power team in the final CFP rankings, conference champion or not (On SI, citing The Athletic), so the last four games matter most.
Liberty is the likeliest to win out. UTSA has the hardest road
Libertyat NMSU, MTSU, WKU, at Missouri StateNew Mexicoat Nevada, UNLV, at Wyoming, Air ForceBoise Stateat CSU, Oregon State, SDSU, flex gameUTSAat FAU, North Texas, at UAB, Tulsa- Boise State's swing game: Oregon State, Nov. 14 (our model: 68%). Its Nov. 28 Pac-12 flex opponent is not set; we assumed a trip to Utah State (64%).
- UTSA vs North Texas, Nov. 14, is a coin flip (51%). UTSA is favored in all four, but by only 1 to 12 points.
- New Mexico at Nevada, Nov. 6, is its toughest game left (78%).
What would change this: Madsen missing time, which the projection ignores. If Boise plays 3 points worse without him, its chance to win out falls from 36% to 26%. The first CFP rankings come Nov. 3.
Questions people ask
Who gets the Group of 5 playoff bid in 2026?
The highest-ranked team from the six non-power conferences (sometimes called the Group of Six) in the final CFP rankings. Boise State is the favorite, with a 61.9% playoff chance in ESPN's FPI, ahead of UTSA (16.3%), New Mexico (15.2%) and Liberty (4.3%).
Does the Group of 5 team have to win its conference in 2026?
No. Under the 2026 rules the bid goes to the highest-ranked non-power team in the final CFP rankings, whether or not it is a conference champion.
Is Liberty good enough to make the College Football Playoff?
On play, it is level with Boise State: 38th of 138 FBS teams in adjusted net EPA per play to Boise's 37th, and ESPN's FPI and SP+ rate Boise higher. Its résumé is the problem: its seven FBS opponents average 107th, and its strength of record ranks 40th.
Is UTSA a real playoff contender?
Its record is better than its play. UTSA is 7-1 but 71st of 138 per play, 4-0 in one-score games, about two wins ahead of what its play predicts, with about a 16% chance to win its last four games.
How we did this: Snapp's college football warehouse (ESPN play-by-play with EPA, PFF player charting, ESPN FPI and SP+ ratings, CFP rankings, conference availability reports), regular-season games through Oct. 31, 2026. Per-play ratings use ESPN play-by-play EPA (expected points added: how much each play changed a team's expected points) for runs and passes in games between FBS teams, weight every play, and adjust each offense and defense for every opponent faced (solved jointly until the ratings stop moving). Interception and fumble return touchdowns are charged to the defense's side of the play, not credited to the offense. Garbage time is removed: plays with the score margin over 38 points in the 2nd quarter, 28 in the 3rd or 22 in the 4th. Non-power teams: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt. History: the highest-ranked team from those conferences in each final CFP ranking, 2014 to 2025, ranked among all their teams in end-of-season SP+ and ESPN strength of record. Expected wins vs FBS sum the projection's win chances for each game already played. Playoff chances and strength of record are ESPN FPI as of Nov. 1. Game projection (shared by every Snapp college football preview): margin = 2.5 points of home field + 45.8 x the gap in adjusted net EPA per play, fit on 298 FBS games from Week 10 on in 2025 using ratings built the same way through Week 9. Its typical miss is 15.8 points (standard deviation; median miss 11.0), it picked 70% of winners, and win chances assume a normal error of that size. Bands show the projection with the team's rating one standard error better or worse (about 5 points).