Is LSU better than its No. 15 ranking?
Yes. Adjusted for opponents, LSU rates 1st in FBS per play. But Alabama is 3rd and close behind, so LSU is the better team by a small margin: about 5.5 points at home.
LSU, 15th in the Week 9 AP poll, ranks 1st in FBS per play
LSU
Georgia
Alabama
Notre Dame
Texas
Utah
Ole Miss
Ohio State
Miami
BYU
Wake Forest
Tennessee
South Carolina
UCLA
MissouriTop 15 FBS teams by opponent-adjusted net EPA per play, games through Oct. 31.
| Team | Record | Adj. net EPA/play | Offense rank | Defense rank | Rank of 138 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 6-2 | +0.652 | 11th | 2nd | 1st |
| Georgia | 7-1 | +0.627 | 7th | 3rd | 2nd |
| Alabama | 6-2 | +0.586 | 4th | 10th | 3rd |
| Notre Dame | 7-1 | +0.556 | 5th | 9th | 4th |
| Texas | 6-2 | +0.547 | 29th | 1st | 5th |
| Utah | 8-0 | +0.540 | 2nd | 22nd | 6th |
| Ole Miss | 6-2 | +0.473 | 3rd | 31st | 7th |
| Ohio State | 6-2 | +0.456 | 13th | 12th | 8th |
| Miami | 8-0 | +0.432 | 1st | 52nd | 9th |
| BYU | 7-1 | +0.420 | 9th | 30th | 10th |
| Wake Forest | 7-1 | +0.416 | 18th | 17th | 11th |
| Tennessee | 6-2 | +0.403 | 35th | 5th | 12th |
| South Carolina | 5-3 | +0.401 | 8th | 35th | 13th |
| UCLA | 8-0 | +0.376 | 36th | 7th | 14th |
| Missouri | 6-2 | +0.372 | 42nd | 4th | 15th |
LSU, ranked 15th in the Week 9 AP poll, is the best team in FBS per play after adjusting for opponents and dropping garbage time: 11th on offense and 2nd on defense. It is not a schedule effect: LSU is 7th before the adjustment.
Alabama, 10th in that poll, rates 3rd. The gap between them (0.07 EPA per play) is worth about 3 points on a neutral field, so LSU is better, but not by much.
LSU rates 1st per play, and its two losses were close
- Other ratings agree: SP+ has LSU 3rd and Alabama 7th; FPI is closer, 5th and 6th.
- At Kentucky (34-35, overtime): about even per play (LSU 0.08 EPA per play, Kentucky 0.10), with LSU losing the turnover battle 2-0. Kentucky ranks 17th.
- At Ole Miss (24-32): a fair loss to the 7th-ranked team per play.
- The case for Alabama: more talent (4th in the 247Sports composite, LSU 8th), and the season-long gap between the teams is small.
Alabama has slipped from elite to good since Week 5
Alabama averaged +0.73 adjusted net EPA per play in Weeks 1-5 and +0.36 in Weeks 6-8, still about a top-20 level. The drop is split between offense (+0.46 to +0.28) and defense (-0.27 to -0.08 allowed).
Alabama's play has fallen since Week 5; LSU's has held up
- The passing game fell most: 0.49 EPA per dropback in Weeks 1-5, 0.03 in Weeks 6-8 (before adjusting for opponents; FBS average 0.08).
- Keelon Russell graded 86.6, 94.4 and 90.2 (PFF) in Weeks 3-5, then 44.5, 63.3 and 68.5.
- More pressure: pressured on 40% of dropbacks in Weeks 6-8, up from 33%; Alabama's sack rate rose from 8% to 12%.
- Injuries explain only part: center Racin Delgatty and receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams missed Weeks 7 and 8, but the slide began with both playing.
LSU's pass rush meets a protection that struggles, blitz or not
Alabama's passing game is elite unblitzed and ordinary when blitzed. LSU blitzes at an average rate (38%, 64th) but gets pressure on half of them.
Alabama's passing slows against the blitz; LSU's defense thrives on it
- LSU's rush: pressure on 50% of blitzes (T-6th) and 39% of all dropbacks (5th); 33 sacks (3rd), 9 by Princewill Umanmielen.
- Alabama's protection: pressured on 44% of blitzes (108th) and 30% of other dropbacks (98th); sacked on 10% (130th of 138).
- Not only the line: Russell holds the ball 3.11 seconds (135th of 147 QBs); 20% of his pressures become sacks (T-103rd).
LSU's pass defense against Alabama's passing game decides it
Every unit in this game is above average. The best pairing is Alabama's passing game (4th) against LSU's pass defense (1st); LSU's run game (33rd) against Alabama's run defense (4th) is the clearest mismatch.
Strength meets strength through the air
- Alabama's pass defense is solid, not a weakness: 33rd after adjustment. Corner Dijon Lee Jr. has allowed 24 of 31 for 332 yards (PFF), the spot LSU will test.
- LSU's Jackson Harris has 634 yards and 7 TD at 2.87 yards per route run (PFF).
- On the ground, expect LSU to throw: PFF ranks its run blocking 86th.
Team by team: quarterbacks and injuries
89.5Sam Leavitt's PFF passing grade, 6th of 147, 1st in the SEC
9sacks by Princewill Umanmielen- Leavitt graded 82.2 and 67.4 at Arizona State in 2024 and 2025.
- His 8 interceptions came on 5 turnover-worthy plays. At the typical rate (0.57 per turnover-worthy play) that is about 3 interceptions.
- Out since Week 6: linebacker Whit Weeks (78.6 PFF). Safety Dashawn Spears and tackle Richard Anderson missed Week 8.
83.8Keelon Russell's PFF passing grade, 24th- Dangerous deep: 22 of 38 on throws of 20+ yards (3rd).
- Four lost fumbles.
- Out in Week 8: Delgatty, Coleman-Williams, corner Zabien Brown and running back EJ Crowell.
- The defense forces turnovers: 19 takeaways, 3rd in FBS.
No Week 10 availability reports were filed when we wrote this; statuses are from Week 8.
Alabama's own people blame the offense. The data agrees, with a twist.
- Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, via Newsweek's Aman Sharma, after the Tennessee loss: "Two weeks in a row with no points in the second half is pathetic."
- AtoZ Sports' Rob Gregson (Oct. 17): "Russell took multiple sacks because nobody could get open downfield, not because the offensive line broke down."
What the data adds: Gregson has a point. Russell is pressured on 36% of dropbacks, but PFF blames his blockers on only 21% (54th). Unblocked rushers, coverage and holding the ball account for the rest, and LSU's blitz punishes all three.
LSU should be favored, by about 5.5 points
Our model makes LSU a 5.5-point favorite, winning about 64% of the time. Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket US) had LSU near 63% on Nov. 1. If Alabama plays like its first five weeks, it is a coin flip.
LSU is favored unless the early-season Alabama shows up
Season ratingsLSU +0.65 vs Alabama +0.59Alabama at its Weeks 6-8 levelAlabama +0.36Alabama at its Weeks 1-5 levelAlabama +0.73- Playoff stakes: FPI gives Alabama a 60% playoff chance and LSU 49%.
- What would flip it: Russell beating the blitz, or LSU losing the turnover battle again.
Questions people ask
Is LSU better than its ranking in 2026?
Yes. LSU was 15th in the Week 9 AP poll but ranks 1st in FBS in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play, with the 2nd-best defense; SP+ has it 3rd. Alabama is 3rd per play, close behind.
Who will win LSU vs. Alabama on Nov. 7, 2026?
Snapp AI's model favors LSU by about 5.5 points at home, a 64% win chance. The typical miss is 15.8 points, so an Alabama win would not be a surprise.
What is wrong with Alabama's offense?
The passing game. Alabama gained 0.49 EPA per dropback in Weeks 1-5 and 0.03 in Weeks 6-8, as Keelon Russell faced more pressure and took more sacks. Alabama still rates 3rd in FBS per play for the season.
How good is Sam Leavitt at LSU?
Very good. His 89.5 PFF passing grade ranks 6th of 147 FBS quarterbacks and 1st in the SEC. His 8 interceptions came on only 5 turnover-worthy plays, so expect fewer.
How we did this: Snapp's college football warehouse (ESPN play-by-play with EPA, PFF charting and grades, availability reports, FPI, SP+, 247Sports talent), regular-season games through Oct. 31, 2026; AP ranks are from the Week 9 poll, the last before this publish date. Per-play ratings use ESPN play-by-play EPA (expected points added: how much each play changed a team's expected points) for runs and passes in games between FBS teams, weight every play, and adjust each offense and defense for every opponent faced (solved jointly until the ratings stop moving). Interception and fumble return touchdowns are charged to the defense's side of the play, not credited to the offense. Garbage time is removed: plays with the score margin over 38 points in the 2nd quarter, 28 in the 3rd or 22 in the 4th. Run and pass unit ratings use the same method on runs only or dropbacks only (dropbacks include sacks). Per-game and Weeks 1-5 vs Weeks 6-8 figures adjust each game by that opponent's season rating; the Alabama passing split is unadjusted. Blitz and pressure splits are PFF's and include every snap. Expected interceptions use 0.57 interceptions per PFF turnover-worthy play, the 2026 FBS rate. Game projection (shared by every Snapp college football preview): margin = 2.5 points of home field + 45.8 x the gap in adjusted net EPA per play, fit on 298 FBS games from Week 10 on in 2025 using ratings built the same way through Week 9. Its typical miss is 15.8 points (standard deviation; median miss 11.0), it picked 70% of winners, and win chances assume a normal error of that size. Bands show the projection with the team's rating one standard error better or worse (about 5 points).