Miami vs. Notre Dame: who has the edge?

Adjusted for opponents, Notre Dame rates 4th and Miami 9th

Miami has the best offense in FBS. Notre Dame is good on both sides, and that is worth more per play: +0.56 net EPA per play to Miami's +0.43, a gap worth about 6 points on a neutral field.

Per play, Notre Dame rates 4th in FBS and Miami 9th

RankAdjusted net EPA per play

1LSU

+0.65

2Georgia

+0.63

3Alabama

+0.59

4Notre Dame

+0.56

5Texas

+0.55

6Utah

+0.54

7Ole Miss

+0.47

8Ohio State

+0.46

9Miami

+0.43

10BYU

+0.42

• Miami's offense is 1st after the adjustment, and its passing game leads FBS: +0.67 EPA per dropback adjusted for opponents (FBS average +0.08).
• Notre Dame's offense is 5th and its defense 9th. Miami's defense is 52nd.
• Before the adjustment, Notre Dame is 1st in FBS and Miami 8th, so the order does not depend on it.

Miami's October dip is real, and it is the defense

Adjusted for opponents, Miami's net EPA fell from +0.59 per play in September to +0.35 in October. The offense barely moved (+0.46 to +0.44); the defense went from 0.13 better than average to 0.09 worse. Notre Dame dipped too (+0.76 to +0.40), mostly on offense.

• September: 0.06 EPA per dropback allowed, better than the FBS average (0.08), on 86 dropbacks in three games.
• October: 0.39 allowed on 130 dropbacks, nearly five times the average.
• North Carolina's Billy Edwards Jr. completed 28 of 34 for 341 yards and four touchdowns on Oct. 31. Florida State scored 35 two weeks earlier.
• Caveat: each month rests on three or four games, and Clemson and Pittsburgh did little through the air.

Miami's pass rush meets FBS's best-protected quarterback

Miami creates pressure on 35% of dropbacks (24th) and has 171 PFF pressures, 4th in FBS. Notre Dame allows pressure on 19% (2nd), and its sack rate (2 in 203 dropbacks, 1%) is the lowest in FBS; Miami's is 8%.

• Carr gets it out: a 2.51-second average time to throw (8th quickest), and only 2 of 49 pressures became sacks.
• Blitz collision: Miami blitzes on 46% of dropbacks and allows -0.06 EPA when it does. Notre Dame averages +0.60 per dropback when blitzed, with no sacks.

Miami's coverage problem starts at linebacker, and October spread it to the corners

PFF grades Miami's coverage 65.9, 111th in FBS. Linebacker Mohamed Toure has been the soft spot all season. Since October, the corners have leaked too.

Linebacker Mohamed Toure has been Miami's softest coverage spot

RankYards allowed per coverage snap (PFF)

1Mohamed Toure, LB

+1.77

2JJ Dunnigan, S

+1.36

3Ethan O'Connor, CB

+0.84

4Omar Thornton, CB

+0.79

5Zechariah Poyser, S

+0.66

6Chase Smith, LB

+0.58

7Bryce Fitzgerald, CB

+0.51

• Mohamed Toure has allowed 23 catches on 25 targets for 338 yards and two touchdowns. His 1.77 yards per coverage snap ranks 409th of 415 FBS linebackers (PFF). Safeties Zechariah Poyser and JJ Dunnigan grade under 50.
• The corners in October: in PFF's game charting from Week 5 through Week 8, Bryce Fitzgerald allowed 148 yards on 99 coverage snaps after moving from safety to corner, and Xavier Lucas 115 yards on 44. In Weeks 1 to 4, Fitzgerald allowed 31.
• Fitzgerald's season grade (85.6, 9th of 503 FBS corners) includes his September at safety, when little came his way.

Team by team: who decides it and who's missing

Miami Hurricanes8-0 · No. 1 in the AP poll, 9th per play

92.8Darian Mensah's PFF passing grade, 1st in FBS

4.30Malachi Toney's yards per route run, T-1st (PFF)

0.39EPA per dropback allowed in October (FBS average: 0.08)

• Mensah: 80.7% completions, 25 touchdowns, 1 interception. Toney: 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns, 82% from the slot.
• Out on Miami's latest report (Oct. 31): defensive backs Ja'Boree Antoine and OJ Frederique Jr., receiver Joshua Moore, running back CharMar Brown, lineman Max Buchanan and tight end Luka Gilbert. This week's report isn't filed yet.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-1 · 4th per play

87.7CJ Carr's PFF passing grade, 10th in FBS

2sacks allowed in 203 dropbacks, 1st

2turnovers lost, fewest in FBS

• Carr: 18 touchdowns, 1 interception. The run game ranks 15th adjusted, led by Nolan James Jr. (519 yards, 8 TDs).
• Notre Dame files no official availability report. Linebacker Drayk Bowen missed the second half against Navy with a lower-leg injury and left in a boot; a USA Today report says he is likely out for the regular season. Cornerbacks Leonard Moore (back) and DJ McKinney (ankle) and linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (thumb) sat against Navy.

Everyone sees Miami's pass defense. The per-play numbers favor Notre Dame.

• Craig Smith, A to Z Sports (Nov. 1): "Three straight weeks of explosive plays allowed through the air is no longer a fluke."
• Adam Lichtenstein, South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Oct. 26) quotes defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman: "We lost a handful of one-on-one reps, and that's what showed up."
• Oliver Vandervoort, Slap the Sign (Oct. 26) on Notre Dame's thin corners: "against Miami, especially Malachi Toney, it's a big one."

What the data adds: Miami's October slide is real but smaller than the highlights suggest, Notre Dame dipped too, and the weak link at linebacker predates October. Per play, Notre Dame, not the No. 1 team, rates as the better side.

Notre Dame by about 8, unless September's Miami shows up

At season form, with home field, Notre Dame is an 8-point favorite (70%). At both teams' October form it is Notre Dame by 5; at Miami's September form, nearly a coin flip.

Notre Dame wins about 7 in 10 at season form

Season formNotre Dame +0.56 vs Miami +0.43

70%ND by 8

Both at October formNotre Dame +0.40 vs Miami +0.35

62%ND by 5

Miami at September formMiami +0.59

52%ND by 1

0%50%100%

The model picked 70% of winners in the 2025 games it was fit on, so treat 70% as roughly two in three. It ignores injuries, including Bowen's.