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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Braves94-68
3–5Final
Dodgers100-62
Score by period
Team123456789T
ATL0000010023
LAD00020300–5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Austin Riley under 0.5 doubles −990

Why Daryl’s Strawberry’s likes it: 10 of Riley's last 10 games had zero doubles.

Daryl’s Strawberry’sDown 2% this season · 263 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 28-18 on this game · +3% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite7 models agree
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    7 modelsParity Desk, MLB ML Deep Dive +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • LAD xwOBA vs LHP is .3326, clearing .315; ATL .3039 vs LHP earns a −0.50-run opponent ledger.
    • Lineups were not captured at 10:30 AM; zero starters were posted, so coverage remains Partial rather than Full.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • 72% fair win probability; fair line about -257 versus DraftKings -212.
    • Tarik Skubal: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, 10.55 K/9 across 158.7 regular-season innings.
    • Dylan Dodd has 0 regular-season starts in the profile; his first postseason start creates length and role uncertainty.
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • +0.93 xFIP gap: Dodd 3.29 minus Skubal 2.36 favors Los Angeles.
    • Dodgers .3326 xwOBA vs lefties clears the .315 offense gate across 1,987 PA.
    • Partial coverage: only Los Angeles' nine starters are captured; Atlanta's lineup is unpublished.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent win probability 72%; fair price -257 versus DraftKings -212 and 67.4% market fair probability.
    • Tarik Skubal: 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.55 K/9, 16 quality starts in 26 starts.
    • Dodd's season line remains strong: 2.27 ERA and 0.90 WHIP despite the opener role.
  2. Tarik Skubal under 6.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    3 modelsK’s, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K’s
    • Season K rate is 30.0%, but the 60/40 recency blend is about 29.1% after L3/L5 and L10 checks.
    • The Dodgers' low-K split is a team aggregate, and the final lineup plus pitch-specific matchup is not posted yet.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated fair probability ~56%, versus 45.5% break-even at DraftKings +120: about +10.5 percentage points.
    • Skubal's 186 strikeouts in 620 batters faced equal a 30.0% K rate, but the matchup blend projects roughly 6.3 Ks.
    • Skubal averaged about 92.5 pitches across his last 10 starts, creating enough workload for a dominant K outing.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Under 6.5 Ks in 3 of his last 5 starts; recent totals were 10, 3, 9, 5, and 6.
    • Austin Riley (31.8% K rate), Sean Murphy (30.8%), and Ha-Seong Kim (25.2%) add meaningful swing-and-miss pockets.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Dodd's 2026 xFIP is 3.29 against a 2.27 ERA; his last three fastballs were 90.55, 90.73, and 93.01 mph versus a 91.42 season baseline.
    • Dodgers vs left-handed pitching: .3326 xwOBA, .422 SLG, and a .2003 strikeout rate; the backed lineup clears the platoon gate.
    • Dodd's sample is thin at 47.7 innings, and recent xERA/xFIP trend data are incomplete; velocity is the load-bearing vulnerability signal.
    Long Way Home
    • Tarik Skubal is confirmed at 2.72 ERA/10.55 K9; Dylan Dodd is confirmed at 13.50 ERA.
    • Dodgers' posted lineup is substantially stronger versus the left-handed matchup: .333 xwOBA and .422 SLG versus LHP.
    • Dodd's 13.50 ERA is a small, role-sensitive sample; regression or an efficient outing can keep this within one run.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Skubal is confirmed at 2.94 xERA and 30.6% CSW; Dodgers bullpen logged zero innings over the last three days.
    • A one-run Dodgers win loses the -1.5; MLB margin outcomes remain high variance.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • signed xFIP gap is 0.93 (Dylan Dodd 3.29 minus Tarik Skubal 2.36), favoring a Dodgers margin.
    • Dodgers xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .333 versus Atlanta's .304, a .029 lineup edge in this lefty-versus-lefty matchup.
    • The Dodgers can win by exactly one run, which loses the -1.5 spread despite winning the game.
  5. Tarik Skubal under 7.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +66%Won

    Taken at −152 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Skubal's L3 K/9 is 9.28 versus a 10.55 season mark, a 12.0% decline.
    • Umpire fit is negative for Skubal (fit z -0.88), offering no strong called-strike boost.
    • His 90.62 average pitches per start do not indicate a short outing.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Poisson-binomial projection is 6.7 mean Ks with 64% probability of 0-7 Ks.
    • Confirmed Braves nine-man lineup owns 344 Ks in 1,681 LHP PA: a 20.5% strikeout rate.
    • Skubal averages 6.1 season innings and 25.0 BF across his last five; a normal seventh inning can produce the eighth strikeout.
  6. Total runs under 8.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX No Vig MLB, Under Current
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Atlanta owns .2118 xwOBA versus lefties over 2,007 PA, triggering a -0.50-run ledger; Dodgers .3326 over 1,987 PA gets 0.00.
    • Most likely loss: Dodgers' .3326 xwOBA versus lefties converts Dylan Dodd's bulk role into an early multi-run inning.
    Under Current
    • ProphetX's team-total thresholds are LAD 4.5 plus ATL 3.5, implying 8.0 runs versus the full-game 8.5.
    • ProphetX's 1st-5 total is Under 4.5 at -102, supporting early suppression alongside the lower team-total thresholds.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta's opener/relief chain and a high-scoring Dodgers lineup overwhelm the coherence signal early.
Show all 34 picks
  1. Game total under 8.52 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.9 runs, fair total line 8.0, Under 8.5 win probability 58.7%, push probability 0.0% (inputs locked 2:30 PM CDT).
    • Tarik Skubal: 2.94 xERA, 2.49 FIP, .266 xwOBA allowed, and 30.0% regular-season strikeout rate.
    • Los Angeles owns a .3326 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, creating a strong path to scoring against Dylan Dodd.
    Deep Book
    • Cross-market coherence: Braves moneyline and +1.5 run-line sides carry the larger resting size, consistent with a tight, lower-scoring game.
    • Braves relief used 8.67 innings and 132 pitches over three days; Dodgers relief used zero innings.
  2. Austin Riley under 0.5 doublesFavoriteHigh conviction
    +10%Won

    Taken at −990 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of Riley's last 10 games had zero doubles.
    • Riley is confirmed batting seventh; Skubal is the listed Dodgers starter.
    • Skubal's 2026 record versus right-handed batters: .2018 average allowed versus .2646 league average, 23.7% lower.
    • One extra-base hit loses the prop despite the strong recent run.
  3. Game total over 7.5High conviction
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  4. Atlanta Braves to winHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers 8th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • normalized Dodgers 8th-inning price is 24.3%, below innings 6 (26.5%) and 7 (25.2%), while Atlanta rises to 20.6% from 17.6%/17.5%.
    • Skubal averages 6.10 IP and 90.6 pitches; inning 8 is the bullpen regime rather than a starter edge.
    • Atlanta used 5 relief appearances, 5.67 IP and 87 pitches in three days; Los Angeles used 0 appearances and 0 pitches.
    • No external sharp reference exists for inning winners; the coherence gap is measured only against this venue's related contracts.
  6. Game first-inning total under 0.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Tarik Skubal: 30.0% K rate, 4.4% BB rate, .266 xwOBA allowed, and .227 first-inning batting average allowed.
    • Dylan Dodd: 2.27 ERA, .272 xwOBA allowed, 21.6% hard-hit rate allowed, and 9.82 K/9.
    • Confirmed top-four orders are modeled: Dodgers .333 team xwOBA versus lefties; Braves .304 versus lefties.
    • Dodd has zero 2026 starts and has worked mostly one-inning relief appearances; opener role introduces uncertainty.
  7. Tarik Skubal over 17.5 outs recordedFavorite
    +53%Won

    Taken at −190 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18 of 26 2026 starts cleared 17.5 outs (69.2%).
    • Last 12 starts averaged 19.0 outs and cleared 17.5 in 9 of 12.
    • Projected 18.9 outs and 90 pitches: 1.4-outs edge over the posted 17.5 line.
    • The last five cleared only 3 of 5; a 75-pitch outing or early trouble leaves the over exposed.
  8. Matt Olson 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Olson owns a .0687 barrel rate, .4804 fly-ball rate, .2536 ISO, and bats third.
    • Dodger Stadium carries a 108 HR factor; 95°F and WSW 5, 10 mph forecast support the park’s usual out-blowing wind.
    • Olson’s lineup position supplies a strong plate-appearance path despite the difficult starter.
    • Tarik Skubal allows only a .2592 fly-ball rate and .0993 HR/FB, a real suppression path.
  9. Tarik Skubal under 8.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket

    Pesto ChangeupUp 85% last 7 days
  10. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Pinnacle prices Dodgers -2.5 at +163 and Braves +2.5 at -205; devigged Dodgers cover probability is 36.1%.
    • The latest 500 completed games show absolute margins of 27.8% at 1, 19.4% at 2, 13.2% at 3, 13.6% at 4, and 26.0% at 5+.
    • Skubal's 2.94 xERA, 10.55 K/9 and the Dodgers' .3326 xwOBA versus lefties support shifting mass toward larger Los Angeles margins.
    • The game is live at 0-0 in the second inning; the current no-run state can compress the remaining margin.
  11. Tarik Skubal strikeouts 6+ NOLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-four pitch counts: 75, 86, 90, 94; L3 average 83.7 pitches implies 5.23 projected innings.
    • 6+ NO is the best rung: 4+ and 5+ NO require ≤3 and ≤4 Ks, while YES prices are heavily taxed.
    • Skubal’s changeup produced 46.9% whiffs at 25.6% usage; the curveball added 38.8% whiffs.
    • Skubal owns a 10.55 K/9 season and 33 strikeouts across his last five starts.
  12. Los Angeles Dodgers −1
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers -1 pushes on an exact one-run win; adjacent Dodgers -1.5 loses on that same result.
    • A push refunds the stake rather than winning; push mass alone does not prove positive expected value without the win/loss distribution.
  13. Game total under 8 runs (push at exactly 8)
    0%Push

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the whole-number under 8 pushes at exactly 8; under 8.5 wins that outcome.
    • ProphetX under 8 is +110 (47.62¢) versus under 8.5 -105.
    • Only 261 postseason games inform the estimate; sampling noise is meaningful.
  14. Game total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree, and the thin side still has more than a few hundred dollars at the exact quote.
    • Directional check: backing Over 8.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Over 3 versus Under 3, so this clears only the two-measure minimum.
  15. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
    +99%Won

    Taken at −101 on DraftKings

    MLB Default PicksUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger +5.0 points: starter +3 on 2.36 versus 3.29 xFIP; lineup +2 on .3326 versus .3039 xwOBA versus LHP.
    • Both starters and all 18 lineup spots were confirmed at 12:30; roof open, 94°F, 2-mph wind.
    • Pinnacle moved Dodgers -1.5 from +110 to -103, agreeing with the selection rather than opposing it.
    • Dylan Dodd has no usable L5 form sample, so the starter ledger cannot receive a recent-form confirmation.
  16. Shohei Ohtani 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed No. 1 lineup slot; Ohtani owns 30 homers, .3969 xwOBA, .5124 SLG, and .2371 ISO.
    • Dodger Stadium's 2026 home-run factor is 108, supporting the home-run environment.
    • Ohtani is left-handed against lefty Dodd; his warehouse vs-L split shows .3508 xwOBA over 191 PA.
  17. Mookie Betts 2+ total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed No. 2 lineup slot; Mookie owns 528 PA, .3394 xwOBA, .1967 ISO, and 23 homers.
    • Right-handed Mookie draws left-handed opener Dylan Dodd, who has zero 2026 starts and no stable pitch-count baseline.
    • Dodger Stadium's 2026 home-run factor is 108, supporting extra-base upside.
    • Mookie's L7 line is only .1923/.3846 AVG/SLG, weaker than his full-season production.
  18. Michael Harris II over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −208 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting fifth in Atlanta's starting lineup; odds feed lists him active.
    • Harris has 4 hits in his last 5 games, averaging 1.8 hits per game.
    • His 2026 line versus left-handed pitching is .282 across 231 plate appearances.
    • Five-game form sample is thin and includes a four-hit outlier.
  19. Tarik Skubal over 17.5 recorded outsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • workload model is about 69% for 18+ outs versus Kalshi's raw yes_ask 0.65; Kalshi values are fractional, so this is a 65¢ contract.
    • 90.62 regular-season pitches/start and 6.10 innings/start; his last five workload totals were 32.0 innings and 447 pitches.
    • Skubal reached at least 18 outs in 6 of his last 8 starts, including 7.0 innings on only 75 pitches in his latest start.
    • NLDS leverage can create a short hook even without a published cap; a bad matchup or traffic could end the outing before six innings.
  20. Game total under 9.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
  21. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting first; Betts owns 170 PA vs lefties in 2026 with .439 SLG, 8 HR and .363 xwOBA.
    • Dodger Stadium’s 108 HR factor is favorable; the 2-mph variable wind is effectively neutral rather than a negative.
    • The projection cushion is only about 2, 3 points before the 1-point quoted spread and venue fee coefficient.
  22. Tarik Skubal over 17.5 pitching outs
    +56%Won

    Taken at −177 on BetRivers

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18 of 26 2026 starts cleared 17.5 outs (69.2%); L10 cleared 7 of 10.
    • Season mean was 18.31 outs with an 18-out median; L5 mean was 19.2.
    • L5 workload was 89.4 pitches over 32.0 innings (13.97 pitches/IP), below the 100-pitch workload cap.
    • Dodgers starters recorded fewer than five innings in 37 of 162 team starts; the L10 quick-hook proxy was 5 of 10.
  23. Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers first-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 MLB first-inning data: at least one run in 50.6% of 2,437 observed games.
    • Liquid anchors agree: Dodgers moneyline implies 67.5% home win probability; full-game 8.5 total is priced near even.
    • The 2026 full-game scoring distribution is consistent with the board: 8.85 mean and 8-run median; 48.7% cleared 8.5.
    • The estimated gap is only about 2.6 percentage points before spread and venue fees.
  24. Any run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes: ATL Acuña, Baldwin, Olson versus LHP Tarik Skubal; LAD Ohtani, Betts, Freeman versus LHP Dylan Dodd.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid first-inning reference and was not substituted for this top-three matchup read.
    • Dodd has no 2026 first-inning observations, making the largest matchup input structurally uncertain.
  25. Mauricio Dubón over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MLB.com lists Dubón fourth in Atlanta's confirmed lineup; the odds feed marks him active.
    • He recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, clearing the 60% form threshold.
    • His .2587 average versus left-handed pitching over 215 PA and 4.0 recent at-bats imply about 69.7% for 1+ hit.
    • Tarik Skubal has limited right-handed batters to a .2018 average this season.
  26. Atlanta Braves first-five spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta +1.5 is 56¢ F5 versus about 50.5¢ on the full-game +1.5 market.
    • Tarik Skubal is confirmed with a 2.94 xERA, 30.6% CSW, 10.55 K/9 and 2.25 ERA over his last five.
    • Dylan Dodd is also confirmed; his 2026 profile shows a 0.90 WHIP and 9.82 K/9, supporting a competitive F5 rather than an automatic early blowout.
    • The Dodgers hold the better left-on-left lineup split and Skubal is the clearly stronger starter; a multi-run early Dodgers lead beats this.
  27. Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers first-five total under 4.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game total is 8.5 while the F5 4.5 rung is near even; no sharp F5 reference exists.
    • Tarik Skubal: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA against, .964 WHIP, and .227 first-inning batting average allowed.
    • Confirmed lineups face left-handed pitching: Atlanta .304 team xwOBA and Los Angeles .333, with K rates only 21.2% and 20.0%.
    • Dylan Dodd is an opener and Grant Holmes is expected to follow; Holmes carries a 5.05 xERA and .342 xwOBA against.
  28. Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −103 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: 54.5% over probability; fair line approximately -120 versus DraftKings -103.
    • 94°F conditions and Dodger Stadium's 108 home-run park factor support run production.
    • Los Angeles posted a .3326 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; its confirmed top nine includes Betts, Ohtani, Smith, Freeman and Hernández.
    • Tarik Skubal owns a 2.72 ERA, .266 xwOBA allowed and 10.55 K/9 across 158.7 innings.

Questions

Who won Braves vs. Dodgers?

The Dodgers won 5-3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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