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FinalTruist Park
Dodgers100-62
3–1Final
Braves94-68
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Team123456789T
LAD0003000003
ATL0000100001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chris Sale over 5.5 strikeouts −323

Why Daryl’s Strawberry’s likes it: 10 of Sale's last 10 starts cleared 5.5 Ks; he averaged 8.6 strikeouts.

Daryl’s Strawberry’sDown 2% this season · 263 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 39-21 on this game · +22% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win8 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    8 modelsFade the Arm, Drift +6
    Why 8 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Sale’s 2.97 xERA and 2.82 xFIP sit above his 2.16 ERA, signaling headline-overstated form.
    • Sale’s 94.77 mph prior-game fastball is 1.30 mph below his 96.07 season baseline; third-time-through xwOBA is .276 versus .258 first time.
    • Most likely loss: Sale’s 11.07 K/9 and .313 K% overwhelm the matchup and keep the Dodgers from converting contact quality.
    Drift
    • MLB full tier: both starters confirmed, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale, with current-season samples.
    • Model 53.0%: Dodgers +201 run differential versus Atlanta +116, plus Dodgers .331 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
    • Sale's 11.07 K/9 and .313 CSW% can dominate the matchup despite the small rating edge.
    Bello
    • 55% fair estimate vs 50.7% devigged sharp probability; FanDuel -108 implies 51.9%.
    • Dodgers are 100-62 versus Atlanta 94-68; matchup xwOBA is LAD .331 vs LHP, ATL .324 vs RHP.
    • Sale struck out 11 Dodgers in a prior 2026 meeting; his left-handed swing-and-miss can erase the matchup edge.
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: Dodgers true win probability 58.4%; fair moneyline -140; p_conservative 55.9% with data quality 8/10 and medium confidence; at 5:00 PM CDT, the primary support is the Dodgers' stronger RHP offense and fresher bullpen, while key risks are Sale's elite stuff and Yamamoto's long layoff.
    • Current 2026 platoon production favors Los Angeles: .3345 team xwOBA versus RHP versus Atlanta's .3051 versus LHP; Ohtani (.4059) and Will Smith (.3995) lead the Dodgers' right-handed matchup.
    • Yamamoto has 13 days since his September 23 start; the extended rest may improve his stuff or create command and workload uncertainty.
  2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsK’s, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K’s
    • 27.2% K rate across the last 10 starts; removing the 10-K outlier still leaves 25.7%.
    • Season baseline is 25.7% K with 9.45/9.99 L3/L5 K9, both above the 8.85 season K9.
    • Umpire fit is negative at -0.01 CS delta with a -2.97 fit z-score.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100: qualifying B-grade edge.
    • Last-five projection: 7.4 strikeouts, 13.8% above the 6.5 line.
    • Atlanta's projected lineup carries a relatively low 21.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 13.8% swinging-strike rate and 27.9% whiff rate support above-average bat-missing ability.
    • Yamamoto is averaging 9.45 K/9 over his last 3 starts and 9.99 over his last 5.
    • The last-five sample includes only five starts and can overstate current strikeout form.
  3. Game total under 6.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsPolymarket MLB Hot Wallets, Under Current +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
    • The live Polymarket US contract quotes Under at 49.5¢ with both sides quoted and orders accepted.
    • Seven or more combined runs beats the position; early damage to Chris Sale or Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the clearest path.
    Under Current
    • Yamamoto/Sale post 2.94/2.97 xERA with .288/.312 CSW and .279/.309 whiff rates.
    • Sale's slider: 40.5% usage, .216 xwOBA allowed, 39.5% whiff; Yamamoto's split: .208 xwOBA, 33.8% whiff.
    • Braves relievers logged 11.33 innings and 193 pitches in three days; tired middle relief can break the suppression case.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Yamamoto's 3.28 xFIP and Sale's 2.82 xFIP support a low-scoring starter environment.
    • Relevant 2026 splits are modest: Dodgers .3308 xwOBA vs LHP and Braves .3238 vs RHP; the low total is not being paired with an explosive platoon edge.
    • Likeliest loss path: an early home run or extra-base cluster turns a low-scoring matchup into seven-plus runs.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −13 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home +1
    Why 3 models like it
    House Rules
    • Dodgers -1 wins by 2+ runs, pushes on an exact one-run win, and loses otherwise.
    • ProphetX prices Dodgers -1 at +136 (42.37¢) versus Dodgers -1.5 at +178 (35.97¢), a 6.40¢ adjacent-rung gap.
    • Broad MLB margin history is not a Dodgers-Braves-specific or postseason-only distribution.
    Long Way Home
    • ProphetX's related game moneyline prices Los Angeles at 50.25¢; this run-line price preserves the existing Dodgers direction while paying for margin.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has absorbed 11.33 innings and 193 pitches over three days, versus Los Angeles at 8.33 innings and 144 pitches.
    • Most likely loss: Chris Sale rebounds and Atlanta wins outright; the run line loses on any Braves victory.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle prices the Dodgers moneyline -107. Team records are Los Angeles 100-62 and Atlanta 94-68.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-06 2:20:47 PM PDT. Lean because moneyline flow is balanced and total flow is mixed.
    • The spread is the only strongly directional board. Moneyline size is effectively balanced.
  5. Chris Sale over 5.5 strikeoutsFavorite2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +31%Won

    Taken at −323 on DraftKings

    2 modelsDaryl’s Strawberry’s, High Limbo
    Why 2 models like it
    Daryl’s Strawberry’s
    • 10 of Sale's last 10 starts cleared 5.5 Ks; he averaged 8.6 strikeouts.
    • Sale is a confirmed projected starter, and the alternate strikeout market is priced at -323.
    • The Dodgers strike out only 20.4% versus left-handed pitching, below the 22.6% league rate.
    High Limbo
    • 10, 6, 7, 11, 6, 9, 8, 9, 11, 6; median 8.5, min 6, trailing max 11, season max 11; all starts cleared 16 pitches.
    • Physical gate passes: Sep. 23 FF was 97.71 mph/2,384 rpm versus 2026 FF baseline 96.17/2,350; +1.54 mph/+34 rpm, not a hard decline.
    • The 193-pitch bullpen workload supports extension but does not guarantee it; the 106 HR park factor adds contact volatility.
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves under 6.5 total runs2 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    2 modelscash-first mlb under hunter, Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
    Why 2 models like it
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Model cashing probability 59%; fair total 6.0 versus the 6.5 market.
    • Yamamoto and Sale project for xERA 2.94 and 2.97, with xwOBA allowed .266 and .267.
    • Both lineups contain substantial top-end power; the Dodgers' 110.5 wRC+ raises one-swing risk.
    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
    • Model projects 6.34 runs; Poisson under probability 54.9%, fair total about 6.7.
    • Sale: 2.97 xERA, .267 xwOBA against; Yamamoto: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA against.
    • Atlanta's bullpen logged 11.33 innings and 193 pitches over three days, creating late-inning over risk.
Show all 43 picks
  1. Chris Sale 6+ strikeoutsLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsMr. Strikeouts, Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    Why 2 models like it
    Mr. Strikeouts
    • LAD's confirmed lineup carries a 20.3% K rate versus left-handed pitching, below the brief's <21% contact-lineup trigger.
    • Kalshi NO costs 26c, inside the brief's 25c, 35c under-loophole range.
    • Sale's 11.09 K/9 over his last three starts supports six strikeouts if contact suppression fails.
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Confirmed Dodgers lineup is 18.8% K versus left-handers (269/1,430), below the 22% contact-heavy threshold.
    • Sale's current 11.07 K/9, 10.69 L5 K/9 and 11.09 L3 K/9 are materially matchup-suppressed by this lineup.
    • Sale averaged 8.6 Ks across his last five starts and has a full verified leash; six strikeouts remains very live.
  2. Game total under 62 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
      • Yamamoto and Sale are listed as probable, while batting lineups remain unconfirmed.
      Deep Book
      • Pinnacle under 6.5 -104 agrees directionally, but it is a different rung.
      • Both probable starters are posted; Yamamoto and Sale have 185.0 and 162.7 regular-season innings, respectively. Nine starters per lineup are posted for each club.
      • Atlanta's bullpen has thrown 193 pitches over 3 days versus 144 for Los Angeles. James Hoye's games average 9.79 runs.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7 or more pitching strikeoutsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Yamamoto has 2 strikeouts on 15 pitches after one completed inning; the live starter and participant identity are confirmed.
      • Innings model centers near 6.0, 6.5 IP; combining the matchup rate with the live count gives roughly 44% for 7+.
      • The current 2-K opening inning is an unusually strong start and leaves less room for the under thesis.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
      +178%Won

      Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sale’s 2026 regular-season xFIP is 2.82 and xERA 2.97 versus a 2.16 ERA; playoff ERA is 3.52.
      • TTO decay: Sale’s xwOBA allowed rises from .2583 first time through to .2608 second and .2760 third; Dodgers vs LHP show .3256 xwOBA, .4286 SLG, .204 K%.
      • Yamamoto’s 2.53 ERA and 2.94 xERA provide the stronger run-prevention side; Atlanta’s bullpen has logged 6.33 IP and 96 pitches in three days.
      • Most likely loss: Sale’s 31.3% CSW and 12.79 playoff K/9 overwhelm the contact matchup.
    • Ha-Seong Kim HRR NO 0.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    • Los Angeles Dodgers win the 9th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9th-inning Dodgers price is 0.23 versus 0.16, 0.21 in innings 1, 8, while Atlanta falls to 0.11 versus 0.17, 0.21.
      • F5 winner board is balanced (Atlanta 0.43, Dodgers 0.40, draw 0.21) and full-game moneyline is approximately 50/50; the 9th-side split is the outlier.
      • Atlanta has 20.0 IP, 325 pitches and 10 arms used over 7 days versus Los Angeles 8.33 IP, 144 pitches and 8 arms.
      • Atlanta has used fewer arms and 96 pitches over the last 3 days versus Los Angeles's 92; the seven-day fatigue gap may not determine the 9th.
    • Kyle Tucker 1+ home runFavorite
      +9%Won

      Taken at 92¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kyle Tucker: 17 HR in 627 PA, 23.1% hard-hit, 8.5% HR/FB, and 45.2% fly balls.
      • Truist Park's 106 HR factor is partly offset by 8 mph wind in from left field.
      • The 106 HR park factor offsets some of the wind and pitcher suppression.
    • First-inning over 0.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Announced Dodgers 1-3 vs L: Betts/Freeman/Teoscar xwOBA .362/.335/.384; Braves 1-3 vs R: Baldwin/Acuña/Olson .385/.375/.329.
      • Yamamoto first-inning profile: .223 BA, 10 BB, 4 HR in 113 PA; Sale: .245 BA, 3 BB, 2 HR in 109 PA.
      • Truist Park factors are 102 runs and 106 HR; clear 76°F weather with 8-mph wind in from LF is a modest scoring aid.
      • Both starters are elite overall, and their first-frame strikeout ability can erase strong top-order contact quality.
    • Chris Sale under 1.5 walks
      +61%Won

      Taken at −164 on DraftKings

      MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sale issued 31 walks over 162.7 innings in 2026 (1.72 BB/9).
      • At roughly six innings, the low-walk profile supports an estimated 67% chance of staying below 2 walks.
      • DraftKings -164 implies 62.1% before any model adjustment, leaving a positive price gap.
      • The Dodgers carry a 10.1% walk/HBP rate versus right-handed pitching, creating more traffic than Sale's baseline.
    • Atlanta Braves over 2.5 runs scored
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Atlanta's confirmed lineup has a .3238 xwOBA versus right-handers across 4,094 PA; Yoshinobu Yamamoto is confirmed right-handed.
      • Truist Park is mildly scoring-positive at 102 runs and 106 home runs; live conditions are clear, 75°F, and 6-mph wind left-to-right.
      • Yamamoto is a genuine suppressor: 2.53 regular-season ERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, 2.94 xERA, and 0.75 L5 WHIP.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 18.5 outs
      +105%Won

      Taken at +105 on BetMGM

      Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season 19+ outs in 15 of 28 starts (53.6%); L10 6/10 and L5 4/5.
      • L10 workload: 97.4 pitches and 6.53 innings; 12 days’ rest, confirmed active starter, no cap or rehab flag.
      • 2026 TTO profile shows no avoid cliff: third-TTO xwOBA .278 versus .291 first TTO.
      • L5 is only five starts and the season 19-plus rate is just 53.6%; the edge depends on modest shrinkage.
    • Atlanta Braves −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

      Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Near-even starters (Sale xERA 2.97; Yamamoto 2.94) keep the one-run mass central; fitted Braves -1.5 probability is roughly 34, 36%.
      • Pinnacle alternate Atlanta -1.5 +205 / Dodgers +1.5 -252 devigs to about 31.4%, same direction as the model.
      • The moneyline is essentially a coin flip; a small directional error can erase a 3, 5 point model edge.
    • Chris Sale under 7.5 strikeouts
      +66%Won

      Taken at −152 on DraftKings

      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 54% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 6.4 strikeouts; 68% under probability clears the 1.1-K gap and 60% gate.
      • Confirmed Dodgers lineup produced 258 strikeouts in 1,403 plate appearances versus left-handers (18.4%).
      • Sale's regular-season baseline was 200 strikeouts in 648 batters faced (30.9%); his last five starts were 43 in 131 (32.8%).
      • Sale has recorded 9 and 10 strikeouts in two of his last three starts; another swing-and-miss spike reaches 8.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +23%Won

      Taken at −437 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Yamamoto cleared 4.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts, meeting the 80% firing threshold.
      • Yamamoto is a confirmed projected starter with a 10.42 K/9 season profile.
      • The exact alternate prop is live at DraftKings -437.
      • Yamamoto missed this threshold twice in his last 10 starts, including a three-strikeout outing.
    • Atlanta Braves +1.5Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −189 on DraftKings

      high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Independent cover estimate: 67%; fair price about -203 versus DraftKings -189.
      • Confirmed starters are near-even by expected contact: Sale .267 xwOBA / 2.97 xERA versus Yamamoto .266 / 2.94.
      • The 6.5-run full-game total and Atlanta home field favor a tighter margin distribution and make the 1.5-run cushion valuable.
      • The edge is narrow: roughly 1.6 percentage points above the price's break-even rate, so variance dominates.
    • Game total over 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Yamamoto: 2.53 ERA versus 2.94 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, and 3.40 SIERA.
      • Sale: 2.16 ERA versus 2.97 xERA, 2.82 xFIP, and 2.79 SIERA.
      • Atlanta's bullpen logged 11.33 innings/193 pitches in three days; Los Angeles logged 8.33/144.
      • Both starters are high-quality strikeout arms; Sale has a 2.79 SIERA and 31.3% CSW.
    • Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs
      +81%Won

      Taken at −123 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current Sale profile: 2.97 xERA, .267 xwOBA allowed, 26.1% K-BB%, 116.2 Stuff+.
      • Dodgers' confirmed lineup owns .3256 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Truist Park factors are 102 runs and 106 HR.
      • Sale averages 95.3 pitches/start; his last four starts average 97.3 pitches, with TTO xwOBA .258/.261/.276.
      • The Dodgers' .3256 split and three left-handed bats can punish a mistake quickly.
    • Matt Olson over 0.5 home runsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Olson hit 26 home runs in 426 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, a 6.1% HR/PA split.
      • Yamamoto is right-handed, and Truist Park carries a 106 home-run park factor.
      • Olson is confirmed active and batting third; he has homered twice in his last 10 appearances.
      • A home-run prop is inherently high variance; two recent homers do not establish a stable short-term rate.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
      +27%Won

      Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed starters are close by xERA (Yamamoto 2.94, Sale 2.97), while Yamamoto has the better WHIP (.870 vs 1.07).
      • Yamamoto's first-inning batting average allowed is .223, versus .289 for Sale.
      • The posted Dodgers order has strong lefty-matchup indicators: Teoscar Hernández .384, Andy Pages .394 and Ohtani .372 xwOBA versus LHP.
      • There is no sharp external reference for the F5 ±1.5 rung; the coherence check is venue self-reference, not independent confirmation.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 17.5 pitcher outsFavorite
      +47%Won

      Taken at −215 on FanDuel

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 25 of 28 2026 starts reached at least 18 outs (89.3%).
      • Season workload averages 19.82 outs and 97.64 pitches per start.
      • Last 10 starts cleared 17.5 outs 9 times; last five averaged 20 outs.
      • Playoff managers can pull a starter earlier despite a normal 95-100 pitch workload.
    • Under 6.5 total runs
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book_levels are Under 3 vs Over 3; two measures agree. Backing Under 6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX self-reference only; no independent sharp reference was used.
    • Atlanta Braves +1.5 run lineFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book_levels are Atlanta 3 vs Dodgers 3; two measures agree. Backing Atlanta +1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX self-reference only; no independent sharp reference was used.
    • Atlanta Braves to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book_levels are Atlanta 3 vs Dodgers 3; two measures agree. Backing Atlanta Braves, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • ProphetX self-reference only; no independent sharp reference was used.
    • Game total over 6.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −109 on DraftKings

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.9 runs, fair total 7.0, Over 6.5 win probability 58.1%, push probability 0.0%; inputs locked 4:20 PM CDT and priced 4:23 PM CDT.
      • Both official 1, 9 lineups were posted at 4:20 PM CDT; Dodgers scored 4.94 runs/game and Braves 4.58 in 2026.
      • Dodgers’ lineup versus LHP Sale includes Betts .362, Teoscar Hernández .384, Ohtani .372 and Pages .394 xwOBA; Atlanta versus RHP Yamamoto includes Baldwin .385, Acuña .375, Olson .363 and Harris .359.
      • Sale and Yamamoto are elite starters: 2.58/2.49 ERAs, 2.67/2.94 FIPs and .267/.266 xwOBA allowed in the dossier.
    • Austin Riley under 0.5 hits
      +73%Won

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6 of Riley’s last 10 games were hitless (60% under; 40% hit rate).
      • Yamamoto’s last five starts produced 37 strikeouts in 33.3 innings (7.4 per start).
      • Riley is confirmed active and starting, batting eighth, with the exact 0.5-hit PrizePicks line priced at -137.
      • The last-10 sample is only 40 plate appearances; one hit loses the prop.
    • Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both starters are listed and structurally strong: Yamamoto xERA 2.94, Sale xERA 2.97; the 6.5 total is a low-scoring setup.
      • Team xwOBA is nearly identical versus the opposing hand (.3256 LAD, .3265 ATL), limiting projected separation independent of the moneyline.
      • Both bullpens had 0 appearances in the prior day and modest three-day workload (5.33 LAD, 6.33 ATL IP), supporting late scoreless frames.
      • Truist Park is slightly scoring-friendly (park-factor runs 102), and the 8-mph left-to-right wind provides no in-blowing compression.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto recorded outs 18+
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Yamamoto reached 18+ outs in 25 of 28 regular-season starts; the recent-three workload was 20.0 innings and 269 pitches.
      • His current profile shows 6.61 innings and 97.64 pitches per start; Dodgers relievers logged 8.33 innings and 144 pitches in three days.
      • No explicit pitch cap surfaced in day-of reporting; this is a leash and efficiency projection, not an ERA/K9 argument.
      • Postseason leverage can produce a six-inning hook despite his normal workload; no official cap or plan was reported.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves 1st 5 innings total under 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 18.5 pitcher outs recorded
      +110%Won

      Taken at +110 on BetMGM

      MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 19.7 projected outs; 59% modeled probability of reaching 19, a 1.2-out projection edge.
      • Yamamoto reached 19+ outs in 15 of 28 regular-season starts; his last five averaged 20.0 outs and 93.4 pitches.
      • Confirmed Braves lineup averages 3.92 pitches per plate appearance; projected workload is 96 pitches.
      • Regular-season 18.5 over rate was only 7 of 27; exactly 18 outs occurred 12 times, creating severe hook-point concentration.
    • Chris Sale over 6.5 strikeouts
      +67%Won

      Taken at −150 on BetMGM

      Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerUp 19% over 36 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle 7.5-K anchor (+122/-148) de-vigs to 43.0% over; the shifted Poisson-binomial gives approximately 62% for 7+ Ks.
      • Confirmed nine-man Dodgers lineup projects a contact-leaning 19.1% K rate versus left-handed pitching across 1,411 split PA.
      • DK, FanDuel and BetOnline cluster at 7.5, providing independent market-location confirmation rather than a broad disagreement at the sharp line.
      • The probability edge is only about 2 points over break-even, so tail variance dominates; this is a low-conviction play.
    • Total runs over 7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ledger 0.00 runs: Atlanta .3238 xwOBA vs RHP over 4,094 PA and Los Angeles .3308 vs LHP over 2,020 PA; neither triggers the .310 platoon debit. ATL/LAD wRC+ 98.61/111.2 and ISO .1635/.1695 trigger no cluster debit or low-K credit.
      • Most likely loss: six or fewer runs; exactly seven is a push, while 8+ is required to win.
    • Atlanta Braves 9th-inning winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liquid anchors imply a near-even game: Polymarket US moneyline is Dodgers 50.5% / Braves 50.0%.
      • The full-game 6.5 total is also near balanced at 51% over, fitting a low-scoring environment centered around roughly 6.5, 7 runs.
      • With no team edge in the anchors, a low-scoring inning's decisive outcomes should be broadly symmetric; the fitted baseline puts Atlanta materially above 11%.
      • Late-inning bullpen quality and availability are not fully captured; workload is known, but comparative bullpen strength is not.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves over 0.5 runs in the 2nd inning
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US anchors are coherent: Dodgers moneyline 50.5¢ and full-game over 6.5 at 51¢.
      • Pinnacle independently shows a near-even game and 6.5 total (-103/-105; over -108), confirming the anchor direction.
      • Anchor-scaled empirical scoring shape uses 9,866 MLB games: median 8, mean 8.96, SD 4.50, right-skew 0.73.
      • Early starters can suppress inning-2 scoring more than the flat split assumes; the fitted probability is only roughly 46, 48%.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves first-inning run
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

      First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top threes: Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman/Teoscar Hernández vs LHP Chris Sale (.362/.335/.384 xwOBA); Drake Baldwin/Ronald Acuña Jr./Matt Olson vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (.385/.375/.363).
      • any run in either half of the 1st inning wins, regardless of team. The full-game total is NOT a valid first-inning reference and was not substituted.
      • Directional check: both posted top-three groups point toward YRFI; Truist Park’s 102 run factor is a light secondary positive.
      • The warehouse exposes no first-inning xwOBA or ERA; the starter read uses first-inning BA/K/BB/HR, with 109 Sale and 113 Yamamoto PA.
    • Atlanta Braves moneyline +100
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      UnderdawgUp 106% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chris Sale’s 2.82 xFIP is 0.47 lower than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 3.28, within the 0.50 gate and favoring Atlanta.
      • ProphetX moved Atlanta from +102 to +100; Pinnacle moved Braves from -105 to -102, both supporting the underdog.
      • +100 is the bottom of the price band, so the payout offers little margin; conviction is intentionally low.
    • F5 total over 2.5 runs
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • F5 over 2.5 is 58¢; full-game over 5.5 is also 60¢, a coherent non-dead scoring setup rather than an extreme quiet-first-five price.
      • Current top-five split xwOBA averages are approximately .359 for Los Angeles versus LHP and .352 for Atlanta versus RHP.
      • The posted lineups put five strong split bats atop each order; Truist Park is near-neutral for runs (102) with clear 76°F conditions.
      • Two high-quality starters average 6.61 and 6.03 innings, so a clean dominant start can hold the game under three runs.
    • Shohei Ohtani 1+ home runLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

      Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ohtani's 2026 split versus left-handers: 12 HR in 210 PA with .3717 xwOBA; Chris Sale is confirmed left-handed.
      • Truist Park's 2026 left-handed HR factor is 113; Ohtani owns a .3943 season xwOBA and 30 HR in 618 PA.
      • Sale has allowed only .2643 xwOBA with a .3117 CSW rate; his quality can erase the platoon signal.

    Questions

    Who won Dodgers vs. Braves?

    The Dodgers won 3-1 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.

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