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FinalPetco Park
Brewers103-59
3–4Final
Padres91-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0001101003
SD00201100–4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nick Pivetta over 10.5 pitcher outs recorded +102

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: Modeled 72% clearance, 2.6 outs above line; FanDuel +102 implies 49.5%.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 33-22 on this game · +14% return

  1. Dustin May over 2.5 strikeouts5 models agreeHigh conviction
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    5 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, K’s +3
    Why 5 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Model projects 3.8 strikeouts and 76% to clear 2.5; gap is 1.3 Ks.
    • May posted 22 strikeouts in 17.0 innings over his last five starts (11.65 K/9).
    • One confirmed Padres starter, Ethan Salas, has only 40 regular-season PA; lineup-specific estimation is thinner there.
    K’s
    • May is a confirmed starter: 31 regular-season starts, 621 batters faced, 23.2% K rate, 27.4% CSW, 15.1% K-BB.
    • His last five starts produced 22 Ks in 74 batters faced (29.7% K rate), 11.65 K/9, and 4 overs in 5.
    • May averaged only 3.4 innings and 14.8 batters faced over his last five starts; a quick playoff hook is the main failure mode.
    MLB HunterV2
    • 8.9 K/9 and a 23.2% season K rate clear a three-strikeout baseline.
    • San Diego's right-handed-pitching strikeout rate is 21.2%.
    • His 4.70 ERA allows early traffic and a shorter-than-expected outing.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B), clearing the 70-point fire bar.
    • May cleared 2.5 Ks in 25 of 31 2026 regular-season starts (80.6%).
    • May averaged 3.4 innings and 60.8 pitches over his last five starts; an early hook can erase the edge.
  2. San Diego Padres to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    4 modelsPolymarket MLB Hot Wallets, Fade the Arm +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
    • Top-10 screen found no opposing Brewers moneyline position; the other signal is a different market.
    • A 55.5¢ contract still loses if San Diego fails to win outright.
    Fade the Arm
    • Dustin May’s L3 ERA is 8.59 versus 4.70 season; his xFIP is 3.96 and xERA 4.45.
    • May’s TTO xwOBA allowed jumps from .307 first time through to .309 second and .385 third.
    • Most likely loss: May suppresses San Diego early and reaches the lineup three times without the TTO weakness appearing.
    Fair Value
    • Starters confirmed: Nick Pivetta (SD) vs Dustin May (MIL); both right-handed and the 5:50 PM PDT snapshot is fresh.
    • Padres xwOBA .3195 vs right-handers clears the .315 offensive gate; 4,895 team PA supplies ample coverage.
    • Pivetta has only eight 2026 regular-season starts; his separate postseason profile row shows one start.
    Resting Money
    • Backing San Diego Padres, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; ProphetX quote +126 (56.14¢).
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow feed validates this hypothesis.
  3. Nick Pivetta over 4.5 strikeouts4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on FanDuel

    4 modelsMLB HunterV2, MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL +2
    Why 4 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • 10.9 K/9 and 29.7% current K rate support five-plus strikeouts.
    • Milwaukee strikes out 22.6% versus right-handed pitching.
    • Milwaukee's 22.6% strikeout rate is below league-average volatility for this prop.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Model projects 5.3 strikeouts and 68% to clear 4.5; gap is 0.8 Ks.
    • Pivetta's current Padres regular-season split shows 10.9 K/9 and a 30.0% K rate across 34.67 innings.
    • Pivetta's recent five-start workload is only 21.67 innings, with a 9.14 K/9 that is below the current-team season split.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • The matchup clash delta is +7.07 percentage points for Pivetta's strikeout rate.
    • Pivetta cleared 4.5 Ks in 2 of his last 3 regular-season starts, including 7 Ks on Sep. 24.
    • He had 4 Ks in 3.1 innings in his Sep. 30 playoff start; another short hook loses despite strong rate.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 63% strikeout probability versus 42.7% implied at +134, well above the 4-point value gate.
    • Milwaukee's right-handed lineup carries a 22.6% strikeout rate; the game clash board gives Pivetta a +7.07-point K-rate delta.
    • His recent workload is modest, with 4.0-to-5.0 innings in each of his last four starts.
  4. Milwaukee Brewers to win3 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 48.0%: Milwaukee owns a +214 run differential versus San Diego's +41.
    • Milwaukee's team pitching was 3.48 ERA versus San Diego's 4.00, with a major bullpen-quality advantage.
    • Pivetta has the clear starter ERA and xwOBA edge over May, the most likely loss path.
    Selective Pressure
    • Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .2785 xwOBA against; May: 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .323 xwOBA against.
    • Milwaukee finished 103-59 and is 17-3 over its last 20; San Diego finished 91-71 and is 15-5.
    • Pinnacle's devigged reference is about 44% Milwaukee, so the model disagreement may simply be wrong.
    Long Way Home
    • my weighted read puts Milwaukee near 47% versus ProphetX's 44.64¢ implied price at +124; Pinnacle's +123 points the same direction.
    • Milwaukee is 5-0 over its last five and 17-3 over its last 20 (+2.4 runs/game), while San Diego is 3-2 and 15-5 (+1.6).
    • Most likely loss: Nick Pivetta's 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.21 FIP and 10.9 K/9 overwhelm Milwaukee's lineup.
  5. San Diego Padres first-five to win3 models agree
    +74%Won

    Taken at −135 on DraftKings

    3 modelsThe Core 6 Independent Syndicate, high-confidence main markets +1
    Why 3 models like it
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 across eight 2026 starts.
    • May: 4.70 ERA, .323 xwOBA allowed, 4.45 xERA; his last-three ERA is 8.59.
    • Pivetta has only 34.7 current-season innings; his .2785 xwOBA is Statcast-derived and sample-thin.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent F5 win estimate: 62%; fair price about -163 versus DraftKings -130.
    • Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .2785 xwOBA allowed; May: 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .323.
    • Pivetta returned from a 147-day flexor-strain IL stint; he has only 34.67 Padres innings and 4.33 innings per start.
    Number Earned
    • Estimated Padres F5 win probability 59%; fair line approximately -144 versus DraftKings -130.
    • Nick Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.01 WHIP and .2785 xwOBA allowed in 34.7 innings.
    • Pivetta's 34.7-inning Padres sample is thin, so his .2785 xwOBA estimate has wider uncertainty.
  6. Game total Under 7.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsUnder Current, Deep Book +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Under Current
    • Both confirmed right-handed starters carry roughly 27.4%-27.5% CSW; Pivetta's .2785 xwOBA allowed and May's 4.45 xERA support a capped baseline.
    • Petco suppresses scoring: 92 run factor and 94 home-run factor; clear 83°F weather with 9-mph wind in from left field.
    • May's 4.45 xERA is not dominant, and both confirmed lineups remain capable of damage against right-handed pitching.
    Deep Book
    • Personnel gate passed. Nick Pivetta and Dustin May are posted. Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Petco run factor: 92.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-06 3:58:40 PM PDT. Both total sides are quoted; the recommended side clears $300.
    • LEAN only. The 4.3x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Petco park factors are 92 for runs and 94 for home runs, suppressing scoring versus neutral conditions.
    • Nick Pivetta owns a 3.46 xFIP and Dustin May 3.96; both starters are confirmed and off the active IL.
    • Bullpens have worked 161 Padres and 149 Brewers pitches over the last three days.
Show all 42 picks
  1. Game total over 7.5 runs2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • The total moved from 7 to 7.5 before first pitch, confirming upward run pressure.
    • Dustin May carries a 4.70 ERA and .323 xwOBA against; both confirmed RHP lineups have at least .3195 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Nick Pivetta has a 2.86 ERA, .2785 xwOBA against, and 10.9 K/9, creating a credible low-scoring path.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.9 projected total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 54.6%; push probability 0.0% (model run 8:00 PM CDT).
    • Milwaukee's locked nine carry a .328 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; San Diego's nine carry .312.
    • Nick Pivetta is the strongest run-suppression input: 2.21 FIP, .279 xwOBA allowed, and 10.9 K/9 in 2026.
  2. Nick Pivetta over 10.5 pitcher outs recordedHigh conviction
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Modeled 72% clearance, 2.6 outs above line; FanDuel +102 implies 49.5%.
    • Pivetta's last five starts: 15, 12, 15, 14, 10 outs; average 72.2 pitches and 13.2 outs.
    • Padres' last 30 starters averaged 14.7 outs and 81.0 pitches; 21 of 30 reached at least 13 outs.
    • Flexor-strain recovery remains relevant; his previous playoff start ended at 10 outs on 66 pitches.
  3. Over 7.5 totalHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating 54.0% over: combined regular-season scoring was 9.59 runs/game (MIL 5.14, SD 4.46).
    • May's 4.45 xERA and .323 xwOBA allowed create scoring upside despite Pivetta's 2.86 ERA and .2785 xwOBA.
    • Pivetta's .2785 xwOBA allowed and strong 2.86 ERA can suppress Milwaukee enough to finish seven or fewer.
  4. Garrett Mitchell under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    +25%Won

    Taken at −407 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10/10 recent games with zero RBI (100% under 0.5).
    • Confirmed sixth in Milwaukee's starting lineup.
    • DraftKings -407 implies about 80.3%, below the recent 100% hit rate.
    • RBI chances depend on teammates reaching base and are inherently high variance.
  5. San Diego Padres −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, May’s season xFIP is 3.96, but his L3 ERA is 8.59 versus 4.70 season; third-TTO xwOBA reaches .385.
    • San Diego vs RHP clears the platoon gate: .3195 xwOBA and .2121 K%; Tatis, Merrill, Machado and France are posted starters.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate, moved by May’s TTO decay and San Diego’s RHP contact quality; price quality is a separate projection judgment.
    • Most likely loss: May suppresses San Diego early and reaches the lineup three times without the TTO weakness appearing.
  6. Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres first-inning total under 0.5 runs
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 63% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: T1 xRuns 0.22, B1 xRuns 0.28; NRFI 61% fair, 61¢ (-156).
    • Confirmed top-six vs RHP: Milwaukee .344 xwOBA/.272 hard-hit; San Diego .323/.278 against Dustin May/Pivetta matchups.
    • Petco open, 84°F, 9-mph wind in from LF; live Polymarket US NRFI price is 54¢ versus the model's 61¢ fair.
    • Dustin May's 1st-inning .2479 BA allowed and four HR in 131 PA leave the bottom half vulnerable.
  7. Samad Taylor hits over 0.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Same-event DraftKings -115/-115 reference devigs to fair 50.0% via calculate_ev; model 56.0%, gap +6.0 points.
    • Most likely loss: Taylor receives only 3.6 PA and makes contact without a recorded hit.
  8. Milwaukee Brewers win the 7th inningLong shot
    +426%Won

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7th-inning Brewers price is 0.15 versus 0.19, 0.24 in innings 2, 6 and 8.
    • The 7th draw is 0.64, above the 0.59, 0.62 cluster in innings 3, 6 and 8, creating the named gap.
    • F5 winner prices Milwaukee at 0.36 despite the 7th assigning only 0.15; the late allocation is out of step.
    • The venue may intentionally model a higher 7th-inning draw; no external per-inning benchmark can arbitrate it.
  9. Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres YRFI
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four orders are productive versus right-handers: Milwaukee .327 xwOBA, San Diego .320.
    • May allows .323 xwOBA with an 8.59 L3 ERA; his cutter/sinker have .325/.357 xwOBA allowed.
    • Petco suppresses scoring modestly (.92 runs, .94 homers), but clear 84°F air and stable conditions do not erase the matchup.
    • Pivetta owns a .129 first-inning BA and zero homers allowed in only 34 2026 first-inning PA.
  10. Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Petco HR factor is 94 with 9 mph wind in from left field, a suppressive extra-base setup.
    • Tatis brings 8.1% barrels and 35.9% hard-hit contact, but his 31.9% fly-ball rate limits the pure-air-ball path.
    • Pinnacle over/under 1.5 TB devigs to 56.2% on the under; Polymarket US No costs 54¢.
    • Tatis remains an elite hitter with 704 regular-season PA and can reach two bases through singles or doubles.
  11. Dustin May pitching strikeouts 3+
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • May's last five starts produced 17.0 innings and 22 strikeouts, or 4.4 strikeouts per start, with a current 3+ threshold below that recent mean.
    • May's last-five innings average is only 3.4 and last-three average 2.44; an early hook can erase the modest rate edge.
  12. Dustin May under 8.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +124 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 164 pitches over 7.33 innings in May's last three starts: 22.36 P/IP versus 16.46 season-long.
    • May has averaged 2.44 innings across those three starts; the under cashed twice in that span at this 8.5-out threshold.
    • Recent fastball velocity is 95.97 mph versus 96.91 season baseline (-0.94); release spin is 2,532.4 versus 2,532 rpm (+0.4): stable stuff, not a decay-based K thesis.
    • Stable velocity and spin mean a normal four-to-five-inning outing is fully live; this is workload/role inference, not arm-decay confirmation.
  13. Game total over 6.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  14. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 spread
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  15. Dustin May over 1.5 earned runs
    +124%Won

    Taken at +124 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected 1.82 ER; Poisson P(2+) 54.3% versus DraftKings devigged market probability of 41.8%.
    • May's xERA is 4.45 with a 15.1% K-BB%, 57.1 Stuff+, and 3.9% barrel rate allowed.
    • Last five starts produced 1.8 ER/start; his last four averaged 62 pitches and 3.33 innings.
    • May's recent 3.4 innings per start creates real under risk if he exits before facing the lineup twice.
  16. Ty France over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −236 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 77% hit probability versus roughly 70.2% implied at -236, clearing the 4-point value gate.
    • France recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 appearances, meeting the 60% form threshold.
    • .3056 average versus right-handed pitching exceeds his .2955 overall average; he bats fourth.
    • Pivetta's .2785 expected wOBA allowed indicates a difficult run-prevention matchup.
  17. Nick Pivetta over 10.5 pitcher outs
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 65% versus 49.5% FanDuel break-even: +15.5 percentage points.
    • Pivetta cleared 10.5 outs in 6 of his last 8 starts and 4 of his last 5.
    • His last five starts averaged 13.2 outs and 4.33 innings; the line requires 11 outs.
    • The current-season sample is only eight starts; two failed the number, including his latest 10-out outing.
  18. Game total under 7
    0%Push

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 7 pushes at exactly seven total runs; adjacent under 7.5 wins at seven.
    • ProphetX matched this contract at 44.25¢; only the live offer at the exact quote is counted, not displayed depth.
    • The 261-game postseason total sample may not represent this matchup's scoring environment.
  19. Milwaukee Brewers +1
    0%Push

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers +1 pushes on a one-run Padres win; Brewers +1.5 wins that same outcome.
    • ProphetX matched this contract at 54.75¢; only the live offer at the exact quote is counted, not displayed depth.
    • ProphetX's adjacent -176 quote includes venue margin and order flow; this is not an independent sharp reference.
  20. Over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing Over 7.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; ProphetX quote +101 (49.75¢).
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow source confirms the total-market read.
  21. San Diego Padres −1.5 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing San Diego Padres -1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; ProphetX quote +170 (37.04¢).
    • Venue self-reference only; the depth imbalance is not an independent statistical or sharp-book edge.
  22. Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tatis owns .3692 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching and .3776 season xwOBA; Pivetta is confirmed right-handed.
    • Pivetta averages 5.86 innings per start, increasing the chance of late plate appearances against San Diego's bullpen.
    • Pivetta's .2785 xwOBA allowed and 10.9 K/9 are strong enough to suppress contact.
  23. Nick Pivetta over 10 pitcher outs
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pivetta averaged 13.0 outs across his last five starts, 30% above the posted 10-out line.
    • He cleared 10 outs in 4 of his last 5 starts and 6 of his last 10.
    • His 2026 profile shows a 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 across the larger current-season row.
    • Milwaukee's .3271 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching creates early-exit risk despite the K rate.
  24. Dustin May over 3 strikeouts
    0%Push

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • May averaged 4.4 strikeouts across his last five starts; 4 of 5 cleared 3.
    • He cleared 3 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • His recent K/9 is 11.65 over the last five-start sample.
    • The recent 10-start sample includes short outings and meaningful variance.
  25. Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres 1st 5 innings total over 3.5
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
  26. Fernando Tatis Jr. under 1.5 total bases
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DK lists Tatis over 1.5 TB at -107 while Pinnacle lists +117; the 24-cent split flags an inflated public over.
    • Petco pregame environment is suppressive: 92 run factor and 94 home-run factor.
    • Tatis is confirmed in the starting lineup and active, but 1.5 TB still requires at least two total bases.
    • Tatis owns a .4696 slugging percentage, 130.7 wRC+, and 86.0 mph average exit velocity; one extra-base hit ends the under.
  27. First-inning over 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning-specific rates imply 47.6% RFI: 1 − (MIL scoreless 69.1% × SD scoreless 75.9%).
    • Posted top threes are confirmed: Chourio/Bauers/Contreras and Tatis/Merrill/Machado; their vs-R xwOBA averages are .333 and .353.
    • Pivetta has a .129 first-inning BA in 34 PA; May has a .248 first-inning BA with 4 HR allowed in 131 PA.
    • The 1.6-point model gap is thin; one early strikeout cluster or double play erases it.
  28. Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee owns a .327 xwOBA and .408 SLG versus right-handed pitching.
    • Dustin May carries a 4.70 ERA and 4.45 expected ERA.
    • Model estimate: 55% versus 49.5% implied by +102.
    • Nick Pivetta has a 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 2.21 FIP in the Padres profile.
  29. Milwaukee Brewers under 3.5 runs scored
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Pivetta enters at 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .2785 xwOBA allowed; his last-five line is 2.70 ERA and .7846 WHIP.
    • Petco Park carries a 92 run factor and 94 HR factor; posted weather is clear, 83°F, with 9-mph wind in from left field.
    • Milwaukee’s posted lineup has five left-handed bats against righty Pivetta, and the team owns a .3271 xwOBA versus right-handers.
  30. 9th-inning draw NOLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total ladder: 6.5 over 47%, 7.5 over 36.5%, 8.5 over 29.5%.
    • F5 over 2.5 is 54%; anchors leave substantial late-game run mass relative to a 73% ninth-inning draw price.
    • 2026 MLB finals average 9.18 total runs; even this lower-scoring anchor profile does not support a 73% scoreless ninth.
    • If San Diego leads after the top ninth, the bottom half may not be played, supporting a draw.
  31. First-five total under 4.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply roughly a 55.5% Padres win probability and a centered 7.5-run full-game environment.
    • Historical 2025-26 MLB totals are right-skewed (9.10-9.18 average, 9-run median); anchoring this game at 7.5 points to a lower-scoring F5 slice.
    • F5 starters should produce less scoring than a flat half-game allocation; the fitted F5 distribution leans below 4.5.
    • The structural gap is modest and the F5 contract is thin relative to the main total; fees and spread can consume the edge.
  32. Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres first-inning run NO
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes are Chourio, Bauers, Contreras vs RHP Nick Pivetta and Tatis, Merrill, Machado vs RHP Dustin May.
    • NO means no run scores in either the top or bottom half of inning 1, regardless of team; the full-game total was not substituted.
    • The posted top threes are capable: versus right-handers, their xwOBA values range from .3312 to .3757.
  33. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Pivetta: 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.9 K/9; Dustin May: 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.90 K/9.
    • Confirmed top-five vs-R xwOBA favors Milwaukee's first five: .341, .376, .340, .363, .317; San Diego's are .369, .358, .331, .324, .219.
    • Full-game board makes San Diego a modest favorite, while the F5 +1.5 rung protects against a close Padres lead before bullpens enter.
    • May's 11.65 K/9 over his last five starts can erase the season-long contact gap quickly.
  34. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIL vs RHP .327 xwOBA and SD vs RHP .320 are near-equal run distributions; both K rates are 21, 23%.
    • Petco’s 92 run factor plus 9-mph wind in from left field suppresses scoring variance.
    • Both bullpens worked 9.0 innings over three days (149/161 pitches), with no reliever on back-to-back days; no clear late mismatch.
    • Only about a 3-point model gap; this low-base-rate estimate is sensitive to run-distribution assumptions.
  35. Total runs over 6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dustin May carries a 4.70 ERA and .323 xwOBA allowed, creating a scoring vulnerability behind San Diego's starter.
    • The score is 0-0 after one completed inning, leaving eight innings for a six-run game; the live line is lower than the pregame 7.5.
    • ProphetX's quoted stake is real top-rung availability, not depth_stake.
    • Most likely loss: Nick Pivetta's 2.70 ERA, .2785 xwOBA allowed and 10.8 K/9 suppress the Padres while Milwaukee fails to exploit May.
  36. San Diego Padres run line −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Padres?

The Padres won 4-3 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.

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