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FinalYankee Stadium
Rays98-64
4–3Final
Yankees93-68
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0011020004
NYY0011010003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total runs under 7.5 55¢

Why Parity Desk likes it: Ledger: Rays xwOBA .285 vs LHP Fried gives -0.50, capped at -0.40 Partial; Yankees .3248 vs RHP Martinez gives 0.00.

Parity DeskUp 10% return this season · 150 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 23-34 on this game · −30% return

  1. New York Yankees to win9 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −170 on FanDuel

    9 modelsMLB Default Picks, Fade the Arm +7
    Why 9 models like it
    MLB Default Picks
    • Price: FanDuel -170 has 63.0% break-even; Pinnacle -167/+153 devigs to 61.3% (fair -158).
    • Starter ledger +7pp: Fried xFIP 3.59 versus Martinez 4.47; xwOBA .246 versus .307; L5 confirms.
    • Aaron Judge (.372 wOBA, .399 xwOBA) is on the IL; the one-point lineup penalty may understate his absence.
    Fade the Arm
    • Nick Martinez: 3.98 xERA vs 3.10 ERA, 107.9 xFIP-minus, and 5.27 last-three ERA signal regression risk.
    • Martinez's allowed xwOBA jumps from .2708 in TTO1 to .3501 in TTO2; the Yankees lineup is confirmed and active.
    • Most likely loss: Judge-less New York strands traffic while Tampa's fresh bullpen protects a low-scoring game after Martinez exits.
    Parity Desk
    • Fried xFIP 3.59 vs Martinez 4.47: signed +0.88; Yankees vs RHP xWoba .3248 clears the .315 offense gate.
    • Ledger: Rays vs LHP xWoba .285 gives -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40 Partial; Yankees 0.00; neither bullpen meets fatigue thresholds.
    • Rays are 4-1 over their last five and won 5-2 yesterday; recent offensive form can overwhelm the matchup ledger.
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Yankees .3169 xwOBA versus RHP clears the .315 offensive gate; Rays .3135 versus LHP avoids a platoon debit; bullpen fatigue is zero.
    • Most likely loss: Martinez outduels the Yankees lineup and Tampa Bay converts a close postseason game against the home side.
  2. Nick Martinez over 12.5 outs recorded2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +159 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB HunterV2, Pitchin outs
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • 68% model estimate versus DraftKings +159, implying 38.6%.
    • Martinez averaged 5.81 innings across 31 starts; even his last-five average was 5.27.
    • Postseason managers can use a shorter leash after one bad inning or a high-leverage matchup.
    Pitchin outs
    • Independent P(clear) ~73% versus 38.6% break-even at DraftKings +159.
    • 8/10 cleared 12.5 outs; mean 17.8, median 18.0.
    • Last start ended at 8 outs and 50 pitches with 4 ER; another damage-driven hook loses.
  3. Nick Martinez over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0, MLB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0
    • Martinez owns a 5.45 K/9 season mark and 6.15 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • The listed 4+ contract is cheaper than the comparable sportsbook over-3.5 price, creating a measurable pre-fee edge.
    • Polymarket's 0.07 fee coefficient reduces the gross edge to roughly 2.8% if charged at execution.
    MLB HunterV2
    • 56% model estimate versus FanDuel +142, implying 41.3%.
    • Martinez's 2026 strikeout rate was 15.1%, while the confirmed Yankees lineup struck out 24.2% versus right-handers.
    • Martinez's season K/9 is only 5.45, so the recent uptick may be noise.
  4. Game total under 7.52 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Max Fried owns a 2.80 ERA and .246 xwOBA against; the Yankees starter is the strongest run-suppression input.
    • Rays vs left-handed pitching: .285 xwOBA; posted lineups are confirmed for both clubs.
    • Nick Martinez carries a .307 xwOBA against and 3.98 xERA, so early Yankees contact can break the under quickly.
    Deep Book
    • PROJECTION. Fried allows .246 expected wOBA with 2.51 xERA; Martinez allows .307 with 3.98 xERA. Both starters confirmed at 4:17pm PT.
    • The under loses with 8 or more runs; Yankee Stadium carries a 121 home-run park factor.
  5. Max Fried over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability ~61% versus DraftKings break-even 52.4%: +8.6 percentage points.
    • The confirmed Rays lineup has a 18.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching; workload estimate still reaches roughly 5.2 Ks.
    • Tampa Bay's low 18.9% versus-lefty strikeout rate directly suppresses the projection.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Fried’s recent K/9 is 9.00 over his last three and 8.54 over his last five.
    • Fried reached five strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts; BetMGM offers the best price at -105.
    • Fried’s recent-start/rest fields are internally inconsistent across warehouse snapshots.
  6. Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +60%Won

    Taken at −166 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability ~75% versus DraftKings break-even 62.4%: +12.6 percentage points.
    • Yankees projected lineup owns a 24.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
    • Martinez's season strikeout rate is only 15.1%, so his baseline skill is modest.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Martinez has a 5.45 K/9 season baseline, rising to 6.15 over his last five and 7.24 over his last three.
    • The confirmed Yankees lineup supplies nine active participants; Martinez is confirmed active and not on the IL.
    • Martinez's own 15.1% season strikeout rate is low, and the matchup adjustment is doing much of the work.
Show all 49 picks
  1. Game total Under 72 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsUnder Current, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Under Current
    • TB under 3 plus NYY under 3.5 implies 6.5 combined runs, below the posted 7.
    • ProphetX also offers 1st-5th Under 3.5 at +114, reinforcing a low-scoring early-game shape.
    • Tampa Bay's .285 xwOBA versus lefties is solid enough to punish Fried if his command slips.
    House Rules
    • Under 7 pushes at exactly 7; adjacent under 7.5 wins that outcome. ProphetX quotes under 7 at +103 (49.26¢) versus under 7.5 at -129 (56.33¢).
    • The 24-of-261 postseason sample is broad and not matchup-specific; no projection edge is claimed.
  2. New York Yankees alternate run line −5.5Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +720 on DraftKings

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • +720 at DraftKings is the unapologetic price for a historic-margin chase.
    • Yankees hold a 93-68 record; Tampa Bay is 98-64, setting a high-stakes clash for Lou's chosen stage.
    • Max Fried: 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.31 K/9; the Bronx ace gives the rampage a credible launch.
    • A six-run margin is an extreme, high-variance requirement; ordinary wins lose this ticket.
  3. New York Yankees run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Martinez owns a 4.47 xFIP and 3.98 xERA against a 3.10 ERA; his last-three ERA is 5.27.
    • The posted Yankees lineup is confirmed; versus right-handed pitching it carries .3248 xwOBA and .4171 SLG.
    • Pinnacle is -161 on the Yankees moneyline and books show roughly +132 to +141 on Yankees -1.5; ProphetX is +146.
    • Most likely loss: New York wins by exactly one, cashing the moneyline read but missing -1.5.
  4. Total runs under 7.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger: Rays xwOBA .285 vs LHP Fried gives -0.50, capped at -0.40 Partial; Yankees .3248 vs RHP Martinez gives 0.00.
    • Bullpen ledger is 0.00: Rays 4.33 and Yankees 3.67 IP over three days, with 0 back-to-back relievers each.
    • Most likely loss path: Yankees power turns Martinez's 5.45 K/9 and early traffic into a multi-run inning.
  5. José Caballero HRR YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Caballero bats ninth; projected 3.6 PA; vs RHP: 64 hits in 309 PA, .2839 xwOBA.
    • Yankee Stadium carries 104 run factor and 121 HR factor; both support the hit/run/RBI union.
    • Most likely loss: a ninth-place hitter receives only three trips and records no hit, run, or RBI.
  6. New York Yankees first-five to win
    0%Push

    Taken at −174 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried: 2.51 xERA, .246 xwOBA and .272 xSLG allowed; Martinez: 3.98, .307 and .412.
    • Fried owns 8.31 season K/9 versus Martinez's 5.45; recent K/9 is 8.54 versus 6.15.
    • Yankees post .3248 xwOBA versus RHP; Tampa Bay posts only .2850 versus LHP.
    • Martinez lasted only 2.2 innings on 50 pitches in his latest start; another early exit changes the F5 matchup.
  7. New York Yankees inning 4 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4th-inning Yankees are 22¢ versus 27¢ in both innings 3 and 5, a local ladder trough.
    • F5 Yankees are 49¢ and full-game Yankees 62¢, supporting the home side rather than a 22¢ inning price.
    • confirmed Yankees 1-3 own 2026 vs-R xwOBAs of .345, .397, and .360 against Nick Martinez.
    • Game is already live at 0-0 in the top of inning 2; baserunners or a long inning can shift the batting slots.
  8. Max Fried over 15.5 outs recorded
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.1 projected outs; 64% model probability of clearing 15.5.
    • Last five starts: 18, 20, 21, 10, 17 outs; 87.0-pitch average.
    • Projected 87 pitches and 3.99 opponent pitches/PA imply about 21.8 batters faced.
    • One 10-out start in the last five shows meaningful hook variance.
  9. Under 7 total
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 52.5% under win rate versus 49.1% devigged Pinnacle at the exact 7-run rung.
    • Max Fried's 2.51 xERA and Tampa Bay's .285 xwOBA versus left-handers suppress the Rays' scoring outlook.
    • Pinnacle opened 7 at over -120/under +105 and is now -110/-102; under fair probability traveled 47.2% to 49.1%.
    • Nick Martinez's 3.98 xERA and New York's .3248 xwOBA versus right-handers can create the over.
  10. Under 7.5 total runs
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 81% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total 6.7 runs; ~68% probability of cashing under 7.5 versus 56.5% price break-even.
    • Max Fried owns a 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed with an 8.31 K/9 season profile.
    • Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup faces a lefty with .285 season and .281 recent-vs-left xwOBA.
    • New York's versus-righty offense is strong: .325 xwOBA and 24.2% strikeout rate.
  11. Ben Rice 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Martinez allowed 1.10 HR/9 with a .088 HR/FB rate in 2026; his fly-ball-allowed rate was .284.
    • Yankee Stadium's 121 HR park factor adds meaningful conversion upside; 8 mph wind is cross-field (R to L), not a strong suppressor.
    • Confirmed batting second; the 22¢ HR price remains internally coherent with Rice 2+ TB at 46¢, since HR is a subset of 2+ TB.
    • Rice has only 18 playoff PA, so the recent 4-HR burst is a very small sample.
  12. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +49900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Guardians +115: Chicago's bullpen logged 8.67 innings/130 pitches over three days versus Cleveland's 4.0/49; Newcomb's expected ERA is 4.27.
    • Dodgers -142: Glasnow's expected ERA is 2.88 versus Mahle's 3.95, while Los Angeles carries a +1.6 recent scoring margin against Atlanta's 0.0.
    • Yankees -156: Fried's expected ERA is 2.51 versus Martinez's 3.98, and New York's recent five-game margin is +3.0.
    • Guardians starter Espino has only 15.1 innings and zero quality starts; Chicago enters on a 5-0 five-game run.
  13. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +20000

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta Dream -121: +4.0 net-rating edge over New York (7.5 vs 3.5), with a 5-0 recent run.
    • New York Yankees -156: Max Fried brings a 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 2.51 expected ERA against Nick Martinez's 3.10 ERA/1.09 WHIP.
    • Atlanta's edge is partly recent-form driven; New York's lineup can reverse the three-game recent matchup pattern.
  14. Nick Martinez 3+ strikeouts
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12 contracts screened; 0 excluded: both sides quoted, no placeholder prices, both ladders monotone.
    • Nick's last five starts averaged 5.3 IP: 2.7, 5.0, 6.0, 6.3, 6.3.
    • Starter and nine-man Yankees lineup were confirmed in live warehouse snapshots before filing.
    • First-five over 3.5 is 0.54 and Yankees over 3.5 runs is 0.55, implying a potentially shorter Martinez outing.
  15. Junior Caminero over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +50%Won

    Taken at −202 on DraftKings

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 71% model estimate versus DraftKings -202, implying 66.9%.
    • Caminero was confirmed batting third and carried a .271 average with a .407 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
    • His 2026 line included 42 home runs, .524 slugging, and a .343 hard-hit rate, giving multiple paths to one hit.
    • Max Fried allowed only a .246 xwOBA and owns a 2.51 expected ERA this season.
  16. Max Fried under 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried averages 84.8 pitches per regular-season start; his last five regular-season starts averaged 80 pitches.
    • Dan Bellino's 2026 over-9 rate is 25.0%, a contact-oriented umpire fallback signal.
    • DraftKings offers the under 4.5 at -111, a playable price against the contact and workload profile.
    • His last five regular-season starts produced 4, 6, 7, 4, and 4 strikeouts; the under went 3-2.
  17. Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted Rays lineup versus confirmed lefty Max Fried: season team xWObA is .2850; bottom four carry .2449, .2460, .2357 and .2069 xWObA versus LHP.
    • Fried's 2026 regular-season profile shows .246 xwOBA-against, 2.51 xERA, 8.31 K/9 and 0.99 WHIP.
    • Pinnacle's sharp full-game reference is 7.0 runs (-110/-102); Kalshi's Rays team-total midpoint is 3.0, so this targets the specific lineup-versus-starter split rather than the game-total desk.
    • Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero post .3529, .3162 and .4072 xwOBA versus LHP; the top of the order can beat the under early.
  18. New York Yankees spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model assigns New York a 65% win direction: Fried xERA 2.51 versus Martinez 3.98, with Fried ahead in K/9 (8.31 to 5.45).
    • That distribution yields Yankees -1.5 at 45.8%, versus the venue's 40.5¢; Yankees -2.5 models 32.9% versus roughly 30%, a compatible smaller gap.
    • Confirmed lineups are posted; Yankees' versus-right xwOBA is .325, while Tampa Bay's versus-left xwOBA is .285.
    • The 65% directional estimate is a simple matchup adjustment, not a full run-expectancy model.
  19. Max Fried 6+ strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Max has a verified leash: 98/97/88/80 pitches in his last four starts; 5.9 projected IP from the last three pitch counts.
    • Max's regular-season K/9 is 8.31, with 9.00 L3 and 8.54 L5; last five/10 starts produced 27/56 Ks.
    • Rung comparison: Max 4+ NO at 32¢ fails the one-K downside gate, 5+ NO at 52¢ misses it narrowly, while 6+ NO at 69¢ qualifies; YES rungs lack the required separation.
    • Max reached 6+ Ks in three of his last four starts, so the recent form creates a meaningful right-tail threat.
  20. Total runs under 7
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays .285 xwOBA versus left-handed Max Fried across 2,170 PA triggers a -0.50-run platoon debit, capped at -0.40 Partial.
    • Yankees .3248 xwOBA versus right-handed Nick Martinez across 4,670 PA receives no platoon debit; net total ledger is -0.40 runs.
    • Most likely loss: the Yankees' right-handed matchup produces enough offense for 8 or more runs.
  21. Tampa Bay Rays over 1.5 team runsFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a coherent low-scoring home-favorite game: Yankees about 64%, full-game over 6.5 about 42%.
    • Anchor movement agrees: Yankees home price rose 60.75¢→63.25¢ while over 6.5 fell 57.25¢→41.75¢.
    • Historical 7,398-game sample is right-skewed (8.87 mean, 8.0 median); target is derived from that anchored run shape, not a symmetric shortcut.
    • This is internal coherence only; no independent team projection validates the anchor split.
  22. Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees F5 total under 4.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total anchor is 7.5, with Polymarket US at 45.5% over / 55% under; sharp references also hold a 7, 7.5 total.
    • Moneyline anchor makes New York Yankees roughly a 60.5% home favorite, coherent with a low-scoring, modest-favorite game.
    • 2026 playoff finals averaged 6.79 runs across 19 games, with a 2.40-run standard deviation; the fitted F5 environment centers near 3.4 runs.
    • Five innings are not a deterministic half of nine; starter workloads and bullpen timing can shift the rung.
  23. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Martinez: 3.10 ERA versus 3.98 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.63 SIERA.
    • Yankees versus right-handed pitching: .325 xwOBA and 24.2% K rate.
    • Yankee Stadium carries a 121 home-run factor; current 15-mph wind increases volatility.
    • Fried owns a 2.80 ERA and 2.51 xERA, limiting Tampa's contribution.
  24. New York Yankees ALDS winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NJ.com, Oct. 6: Smith said, “The Yankees are down 2-0 and they’re probably going to lose the damn series.”
    • This is a direct, game-linked series proclamation rather than a season narrative; the fade takes Yankees to win the ALDS.
    • Polymarket US lists the Yankees YES contract at 19¢, providing a live, specific opposite-side price.
    • New York trails 0-2; one more loss ends the series, making this a genuine 19¢ longshot.
  25. Over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  26. Max Fried under 2.0 earned runs allowed
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried owns a 2.51 xERA, .246 xwOBA allowed, 106.5 Stuff+, 19.6% hard-hit rate and 1.4% barrel rate.
    • His cutter, sweeper and curve produce .223, .153 and .200 xwOBA allowed; 24.5% whiff rate supports contact suppression.
    • Tampa Bay posts only .285 xwOBA and 18.5% strikeouts versus left-handed pitching; no Fried IL or pitch-limit flag.
    • Model still assigns 38.9% probability to 2+ ER; one homer or clustered baserunners defeats the under.
  27. Jonny DeLuca over 0.5 hits
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of DeLuca's last 10 games cleared 0.5 hits (80%).
    • His .2632 average versus right-handers supports a hit model around 73%.
    • Nick Martinez is right-handed with a 5.45 K/9; Yankee Stadium's 121 HR park factor favors offense.
    • DeLuca bats seventh, reducing expected plate appearances versus a top-of-order hitter.
  28. Max Fried over 14.5 pitcher outsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at −230 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16.5-out last-10 projection is 13.8% above the 14.5-out line.
    • Fried cleared 14.5 outs in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%).
    • He cleared the line in 4 of his last 5 starts (80%) and 17 of 21 2026 logs (81%).
    • Three unders in Fried's last 10 include outings of 3.33 and 3.0 innings.
  29. New York Yankees −1 run line (pushes on exactly a 1-run Yankees win)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees -1 wins by 2+; a 1-run Yankees win returns stake; a tie or Rays win loses.
    • ProphetX prices Yankees -1 at 51.22¢ (-105) versus Yankees -1.5 at 40.65¢ (+146), only a 10.57¢ gap.
    • Pinnacle makes New York the moneyline favorite at -166, supporting the favorite-side selection without a projection model.
    • This is not a projection play: Yankees -1 still loses on a Yankees tie or any Rays win, and the push is only a refund.
  30. Tampa Bay Rays +3.5Favorite
    +25%Won

    Taken at 80¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Rays 3 versus Yankees 3; thin-at-quote and deep-behind-it are the two agreeing measures.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; the apparent queue can be stale or concentrated in a single participant.
  31. Game total under 7.5 runs
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 6.8 projected total runs, 6.8 fair total line, Under 7.5 win probability 58.4%, push probability 0.0% (release 6:24 PM CDT; first pitch 7:00 PM CDT).
    • Max Fried owns a 2.51 xERA and .246 xwOBA allowed; Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup projects only .3098 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
    • Nick Martinez's 3.98 xERA is less dominant, but six left-handed Yankees hitters face a pitcher allowing .2431 xwOBA to lefties.
    • The Yankees' confirmed lineup carries a strong .3413 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, creating substantial upside if Martinez misses.
  32. Austin Wells over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wells recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 games, averaging 1.0 hit versus the 0.5 line.
    • His current four-game profile shows a .4167 batting average, a 67% divergence above the projection threshold.
    • Against right-handers he owns a .2742 average and .3305 xwOBA; Martinez is the confirmed right-handed starter.
    • His full-season batting average is only .1856, substantially weaker than the recent 10-game sample.
  33. Nick Martinez over 3.0 strikeouts
    0%Push

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.6 strikeouts per start across his last five outings, 20% above the 3.0 projection.
    • Yankees strike out 24.2% versus right-handed pitching, a favorable matchup rate.
    • Martinez's 6.15 L5 K/9 and 5.81 innings per start imply roughly 3.97 strikeouts.
    • His last start produced only 1 strikeout in 2.67 innings, showing meaningful workload variance.
  34. Nick Martinez 12+ recorded outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season workload: 5.81 innings and 81.4 pitches per start; line requires only 4.0 innings.
    • Recent workload: 5.27 innings and 74.8 pitches across his last five starts.
    • Nick cleared 12 outs in 4 of his last 5 starts; no announced pitch cap was found for this ALDS start.
    • His most recent start lasted only 2.2 innings on 50 pitches, the clearest recent downside.
  35. Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees total under 7.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Starters are live-verified: Nick Martinez for Tampa Bay and Max Fried for New York; weather is clear, 67°F, 15-mph wind.
    • Most likely loss: Martinez, Fried, or the bullpens allow eight or more combined runs.
  36. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top threes average .367 xwOBA vs RHP for New York and .359 vs LHP for Tampa Bay.
    • First-inning pitcher shape is not dominant: Fried .213 BA/.301 K% and Martinez .195 BA/.183 K%; both allow walks and contact.
    • Yankee Stadium carries a 121 HR park factor and 104 runs factor; full-game 7.5 is NOT a valid RFI reference because it answers a different innings distribution.
    • First-inning samples are only 83 PA for Fried and 120 for Martinez; season platoon splits are not first-time-through samples.
  37. Max Fried 5+ strikeouts
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rolling velocity is 86.31 mph (-1.50 vs 87.81 season) and spin 2,411 rpm (+139 vs 2,272); P/IP is below the 17.5 decay trigger, so no decay/leash override.
    • Three-start sample; 5+ requires Fried to reach the strikeout threshold rather than merely pitch efficiently.
  38. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees under 7.5 total runs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays carry a .285 xwOBA versus left-handers; Max Fried's season xwOBA allowed is .246.
    • Yankees' .325 xwOBA versus right-handers faces Nick Martinez, whose expected ERA is 3.98.
    • Dan Bellino's games average 8.09 runs, but only 25% have cleared nine runs.
    • Yankee Stadium's 121 home-run park factor creates substantial long-ball variance.
  39. Tampa Bay Rays to win
    +146%Won

    Taken at +146 on FanDuel

    UnderdawgUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +146 is inside the +100 to +160 underdog gate; Pinnacle also offered +152.
    • 2026 pythagorean win rates are Rays .5566 and Yankees .5935, only a 3.7-point skill gap.
    • Season W-L fallback is close: Rays .6049 versus Yankees .5776.
    • Nick Martinez's 4.47 xFIP trails Max Fried's 3.59 by 0.88, beyond the preferred 0.50 gap.
  40. Game first-five total under 5.5Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried’s 2.51 xERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .213 first-inning batting average point toward run suppression early.
    • Tampa Bay’s posted top order faces a lefty with a 30.1% first-inning K rate; the Rays’ versus-left team xwOBA is .285.
    • The F5 total ladder is 2.5 over 71¢, 3.5 over 54¢, 4.5 over 41¢, and 5.5 over 30¢; the rung-specific under 5.5 price is 71¢.
    • No sharp external F5-total reference exists; the coherence check is the only independent cross-check.
  41. Tampa Bay Rays first-five spread +1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Max Fried’s 2.51 xERA and 30.1% first-inning K rate support a low early Yankees margin.
    • Nick Martinez has a 3.98 xERA, but Tampa Bay’s lineup owns only a .285 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
    • The Yankees’ top five posted a .325 team xwOBA versus right-handers; that favors New York, but not necessarily a two-run first-five margin.
    • The Yankees’ top order includes Ben Rice (.397 xwOBA vs RHP) and Luis García Jr. (.360), creating real early multi-run upside.
  42. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fried xERA 2.51 and Martinez xERA 3.98; both bullpens had zero back-to-back relievers and only 58/61 recent pitches.
    • Reference: NO REFERENCE, no sportsbook prices this exact extras market; the game total is contextual only.
    • Yankees vs RHP xwOBA is .3413 versus Tampa Bay's .3098 vs LHP, creating a possible scoring mismatch.
  43. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dan Bellino's 8.09 average total runs is 0.59 above the 7.5 line.
    • Tampa Bay's posted lineup carries .3248 xwOBA versus righties; Nick Martinez's 3.98 xERA supports run creation.
    • Yankee Stadium's 121 HR park factor adds tail-event scoring potential; clear 67°F conditions are confirmed.
    • Max Fried's 2.51 xERA and 0.99 WHIP can suppress the Yankees' side of the total.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Yankees?

The Rays won 4-3 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

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