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FinalAmerican Family Field
Dodgers100-62
4–7Final
Brewers103-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAD1010200004
MIL10201102–7

Top model pick, graded

Won

Mookie Betts under 0.5 RBI −346

Why Daryl’s Strawberry’s likes it: 9 zero-RBI games in his last 10 (90% under hit rate).

Daryl’s Strawberry’sDown 2% this season · 263 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 17-38 on this game · −40% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsFade the Arm, MLB Default Picks +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Logan Henderson's 2026 TTO K% falls from 40.0% first time through to 26.9% second and 21.9% third, a visible order-cycle decay.
    • Dodgers' confirmed nine-man lineup versus RHP owns .339 xwOBA, .417 SLG and a .2078 K rate; all three platoon gates clear.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen has thrown 4.67 innings and 64 pitches over three days, but zero relievers are on back-to-back days; fresh relief can contain damage.
    MLB Default Picks
    • Pinnacle -127/+117 devigs Dodgers at 54.8% (fair -121); DraftKings -130 breaks even at 56.5%.
    • Ledger +3.0 points: xFIP +1, L5 ERA/WHIP +1, confirmed RHP-platoon xwOBA +1.
    • Pinnacle’s 54.8% anchor is below the model estimate, leaving a narrow and fragile disagreement.
    Long Way Home
    • Pinnacle lists the same Dodgers moneyline at -211; FanDuel and DraftKings are -125/-126, so the sharp reference is unusually divergent but directionally supportive.
    • Live state is verified: tied 1-1 after the bottom of the first, with Yamamoto and Henderson the confirmed starters; the projection still favors Los Angeles.
    • FanDuel/DraftKings near -125/-126 broadly agree with ProphetX, leaving a modest subjective edge despite the Pinnacle outlier.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Dodgers' posted lineup has .339 xwOBA vs RHP; Milwaukee has .326 vs RHP in 2026.
    • Confirmed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Logan Henderson are close by xFIP: 3.28 vs 3.30, so no meaningful starter gap against Los Angeles.
    • The estimated edge is only about 1.4 percentage points, so model error can erase it.
  2. Game total under 73 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    3 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Under Current +1
    Why 3 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Projected total 6.6 runs; my under-7 win probability is 58.5%, above the 58% total threshold.
    • Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) and Henderson (2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) both allow quality contact at low season rates.
    • The Dodgers' .339 xwOBA versus RHP is the strongest lineup-specific scoring signal in this game.
    Under Current
    • Both confirmed right-handed starters suppress quality contact: Yamamoto xERA 2.94/CSW 28.8%; Henderson xERA 2.74/CSW 27.5%.
    • Arsenal fit supports suppression: Yamamoto's splitter/slider allow .204/.229 xwOBA; Henderson's 35.5%-usage changeup allows .253.
    • The total already moved from opening 7.5/7 toward 6.5/7, so much of the suppression may already be priced.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 6.4; fair total line 6.5; Under 7 win probability 57.8%; push probability 14.3%; release 3:18 PM CDT.
    • Logan Henderson and Yoshinobu Yamamoto carry 2.74 and 2.94 xERA, respectively, in the live pregame slate.
    • Both official lineups are dangerous versus right-handed pitching: Dodgers .339 and Brewers .326 team xwOBA.
  3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 17.5 outs recordedFavorite2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −198 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • 19.2 projected outs; 77% modeled chance to reach 18+ against a 17.5 line.
    • Last five regular-season starts produced 18, 21, 21, 21, and 19 outs.
    • Dodgers used only 42 bullpen pitches over three days, leaving Roberts an early-hook option.
    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    • 26 of 29 season starts cleared 17.5 outs (89.7%); 9 of 10 in the last 10.
    • Cleared the line in each of his last five starts, averaging 20.4 outs.
    • The line requires six completed innings; a postseason hook or pitch-count limit can stop him at five-plus.
  4. Milwaukee Brewers to win2 models agree
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Confirmed starter edge is modestly Milwaukee: Henderson 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.07 K/9 versus Yamamoto 2.53, 0.87, 8.85.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen quality proxy is better: 3.87 prior XFIP versus 4.15 for Los Angeles; both teams have zero relievers on back-to-back days.
    • Los Angeles has the stronger current offense versus right-handers: .339 xwOBA and 110.5 wRC+ versus Milwaukee's .3264 and 107.8.
    Resting Money
    • Book_levels were 3 Brewers versus 3 Dodgers: neutral, so two of three measures qualify and raw stakes are materially large.
    • Band: RECOMMENDED on the exchange-flow test; backing Milwaukee, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The primary evidence is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; this hypothesis may fail out of sample.
  5. Logan Henderson under 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Henderson's current postseason profile averages 72 pitches and 5.0 innings, well below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Henderson had 4 strikeouts on 72 pitches in his latest start; FanDuel under 5.5 is -122.
    • His regular-season K/9 was 10.07, with 10.20 K/9 over his last three regular-season starts; the trend gate does not support a decline.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Henderson's last three starts produced 4, 3, and 8 Ks, a 5.0 average against a 5.5 line.
    • His last three outings were only 72, 87, and 87 pitches, below his 83.6 full-season average workload in two of three.
    • The last-five average is 5.6 Ks, only slightly above the line; this is a small-edge, variance-sensitive position.
  6. Andy Pages over 0.5 hits2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    • Pages recorded a hit in 93 of 134 regular-season games (69.4%), plus 3 of his last 5 and 6 of his last 10.
    • The confirmed seventh-place lineup spot preserves a normal starting role and plate-appearance path.
    • The recent hit gates clear at exactly 60%, so one hitless game materially changes the signal.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Grade 72/100; L10 hit rate is 6/10 (60%), with L5 at 3/5 (60%).
    • Season hit rate is 96/139 (69.1%); Pages is confirmed batting seventh.
    • Seventh in the order creates fewer expected plate appearances than the top of the lineup.
Show all 46 picks
  1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    • Yamamoto cleared 6.5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • His 16 of 29 regular-season starts over the threshold clears the 55% season gate.
    • The season hit rate is only 55.2%, barely above the mandatory threshold.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Yamamoto cleared 6.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts, averaging 7.4.
    • His current postseason start produced 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
    • The last-10 sample includes one 3-K and one 4-K outing; strikeout variance remains meaningful.
  2. Mookie Betts under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    +29%Won

    Taken at −346 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 zero-RBI games in his last 10 (90% under hit rate).
    • Logan Henderson's xwOBA allowed to right-handed batters is 27.8% below league average.
    • Betts is confirmed batting first for Los Angeles.
    • One RBI can arrive on a single timely opportunity despite limited plate appearances.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers over 7 total runs (2026-10-12)
    +99%Won

    Taken at −101 on DraftKings

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerDown 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: 52% over versus 47.8% devigged Pinnacle probability; about 3.5% conservative edge at -101.
    • Total moved from 6.5 to 7 at Pinnacle while the over price moved from -118 to +103; DraftKings moved 7 over from +103 to -101.
    • Both teams went 8-2 over their last 10; season run differentials are +214 Milwaukee and +201 Los Angeles.
    • Logan Henderson and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are both confirmed quality starters, each with an ERA below 2.6 in the current slate data.
  4. Total runs over 7.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle 7.0 O -102/U -110 devigs to 49.1%/50.9%; no live 6.5 sharp rung.
    • Rung trap is 0.5 runs: mean 7.0 plus 0.00-run ledger, SD 4.3, yields 45.4% for Over 7.5.
    • FanDuel is the best US reference at Over 7.5 +120 (45.5% implied); 42.5c on Polymarket US is more favorable.
    • Yamamoto and Henderson carry 8.85 and 10.07 K/9; strikeout dominance can suppress scoring and make the over lose.
  5. under 7.0 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yamamoto: 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.94 expected ERA.
    • Henderson: 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.74 expected ERA, 10.07 K/9.
    • American Family Field carries a 96 run-factor; neither bullpen has back-to-back relievers.
    • Postseason lineups are unconfirmed, so offensive usage is proxied by season baselines.
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to win
    0%Push

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed lineup top-five xwOBA: LAD .362 vs MIL .342.
    • Against right-handers, LAD xwOBA .339 vs MIL .326; LAD strikeout rate 20.8% vs 22.5%.
    • Yamamoto has 22 regular-season quality starts and averages 97.6 pitches; Henderson has 7 and averages 83.6.
    • Henderson’s regular-season expected line is slightly better: 2.74 xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed versus Yamamoto’s 2.94 and .266.
  7. Los Angeles Dodgers win the 7th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bullpen regime: Dodgers 3.0 IP/42 pitches/3 arms in 3d; Milwaukee used 4.67/64/4.
    • Starters project 6.93 IP for Yamamoto and 5.07 for Henderson, making inning 7 a clear reliever window.
    • Both bullpens have zero back-to-back relievers, so workload may overstate Milwaukee's disadvantage.
  8. Under total 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Yamamoto 2.94 xERA and Henderson 2.74 xERA in 2026; both current postseason ERAs are under 2.00.
    • Dome conditions: 72°F with no wind; team FIP is 3.59 for Los Angeles and 3.65 for Milwaukee.
    • Exact-rung Pinnacle under opened -119 and is -116; devigged under moved roughly 52.5% to 52.2%, effectively flat.
    • Most likely loss: two potent lineups, 110.5 Dodgers and 107.8 Brewers wRC+, turn one mistake into a crooked inning.
  9. Under 7 total runs
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 81% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 6.1 runs; 61% chance of fewer than 7 runs, with push protection at exactly 7.
    • Yamamoto and Henderson carry 2.94 and 2.74 expected ERAs, both with sub-.266 expected wOBA allowed.
    • Both batting orders are confirmed, but each lineup faces a righty and team xwOBA versus RHP is only .339 LAD and .326 MIL.
    • The Dodgers posted a strong .3577 xwOBA versus right-handers over the last 30 days.
  10. Max Muncy 2+ total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Muncy has 29 HR, .238 ISO, 6.8% barrel rate, 41.8% fly-ball rate and 51.9% pull rate in 561 PA.
    • Logan Henderson allows 1.28 HR/9 with a .1176 HR/FB rate and 29.2% fly balls allowed over 98.1 innings.
    • American Family Field is neutral for homers (park factor 100); dome conditions remove wind suppression and volatility.
    • Muncy’s .4898 SLG does not guarantee two bases in a single game; a walk-heavy or hitless outing loses.
  11. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +46900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo -110: Florida is without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand; its season scoring is only 1.8 goals per game.
    • Dodgers -124: Yoshinobu Yamamoto brings a 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 22 quality starts against Logan Henderson's 18 starts and 10.07 K/9.
    • Rays -158: Drew Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP face Foster Griffin's 4.35 expected ERA; Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown zero innings in three days.
    • Buffalo is only 2-3 and has allowed 3.8 goals per game; Florida's injuries may be overstated by a five-game sample.
  12. Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10.07 regular-season K/9; 9.62 K/9 across his last five starts.
    • Both starters are confirmed, and Henderson has 19 days since his prior start in the live profile.
    • Postseason usage and pitch-count decisions are uncertain; the regular-season sample may not transfer cleanly.
  13. Los Angeles Dodgers F5 to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Fair 52.0% versus Kalshi devigged 45.5% from 0.46/(0.46+0.35+0.20): gap 6.5p.
    • Kalshi's devigged tie share is 19.5%; a tie after five is a push/refund, not a Dodgers YES win.
  14. Logan Henderson 6 or more strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both Henderson 4+, 9+ and Yamamoto 5+, 10+ ladders are monotone; selected Henderson 6+ at 0.48.
    • Model cumulative K distribution: 5+ 0.70, 6+ 0.54, 7+ 0.39, 8+ 0.18, 9+ 0.08; innings mean 5.43.
    • Only 18 2026 starts; the 6+ rung hit 12/18, a small realized sample.
  15. Los Angeles Dodgers F5 total over 3.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 environment: LAD/MIL score 2.84/2.90 runs per game and allow 1.99/2.15; posted top-three lineup xwOBAs are LAD .337/.368/.334 and MIL .350/.342/.334 versus RHP.
    • Conservative fair over 3.5 is 59.0%; Polymarket US quote is 0.50 yes / 0.51 no, devigging to 49.5%; gap is 9.5p.
    • The raw run-environment blend points near 4.9 runs before adjustment; the 59% fair estimate applies a large haircut for playoff-specific suppression and model error.
  16. Total runs under 7.0
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both confirmed starters carry season ERAs near 2.5 and expected ERAs below 3.0.
    • American Family Field posts a 96 runs park factor; roof is projected closed with no wind.
    • Bullpens are usable by availability signal: no relievers are flagged on back-to-back days.
    • The total is already low; seven runs produces a push rather than a win.
  17. Max Muncy over 0.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Muncy owns a .490 season slugging percentage, .351 xwOBA, and 29 home runs.
    • Confirmed sixth in the Dodgers order, preserving a strong four-plate-appearance expectation.
    • Dodgers’ .339 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is favorable against Logan Henderson.
    • Henderson’s 2.74 expected ERA and .257 expected wOBA allowed are legitimate resistance.
  18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 1.5 walks
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on DraftKings

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.9% season walk rate and 2.04 BB/9 support a low walk baseline.
    • Confirmed starter has 185 regular-season innings, limiting small-sample dependence.
    • Brewers’ right-handed matchup projects below the posted 1.5-walk threshold.
    • A long outing creates more opportunities; two walks lose the ticket.
  19. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 18.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +115 on DraftKings

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 starts cleared 18.5 outs 4 of 5; L10 cleared 7 of 10, averaging 19.9 outs.
    • 2026 regular-season workload was 97.6 pitches and 6.61 innings per start; his latest playoff start reached 21 outs.
    • Third-TTO xwOBA .271 versus first-TTO .286 shows no meaningful late-order cliff.
    • Dodgers' bullpen was fresh: 3.0 innings and 42 pitches over three days, with zero relievers on back-to-back days.
  20. Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers 9th-inning tieLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 53.2% Dodgers win and 47.3% over 7.5 imply a close, roughly 7.5-run live game.
    • 2026 regular-season totals average 8.96 with an 8-run median; the fitted anchor distribution remains right-skewed but sub-1 run per inning.
    • A balanced sub-1-run inning makes a tie roughly 50, 55%, below the venue's 72¢ YES price.
    • A late bullpen-driven scoring spike can reduce the tie probability sharply.
  21. YRFI any run in the 1st inning
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes: Betts, Freeman, Hernández vs RHP Henderson; Chourio, Turang, Contreras vs RHP Yamamoto.
    • Top-three vs-R xwOBA averages are .354 for Los Angeles and .347 for Milwaukee.
    • Yamamoto's first-inning sample is 116 PA and Henderson's is 74 PA; no first-inning xwOBA or ERA is exposed.
  22. Full-game total under 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 81% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 6.38 runs; Poisson gives 54.4% to stay under 6.5.
    • Both starters clear workload gate: Henderson averages 85.25 pitches, Yamamoto 91.75 across their last four starts.
    • Henderson’s 50.0% fly-ball rate gets no wind-out boost: retractable dome, 72°F, zero-mph wind.
    • The posted lineups are strong, and either top order can create an early multi-run inning.
  23. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
  24. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 17.5 outsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −198 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yamamoto recorded at least 18 outs in 9 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.63 innings.
    • He reached seven innings in his latest postseason start and threw 98 pitches.
    • FanDuel -198 implies 66.4%; my estimated win probability is 75%.
    • The one miss in the last 10 was 17 outs, showing the line can hinge on one inning.
  25. Milwaukee Brewers spread +1.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 78% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters are confirmed; Yamamoto and Henderson posted regular-season ERAs of 2.53 and 2.47.
    • Full-game total is 6.5, increasing the value of an extra 1.5 runs in a low-scoring game.
    • Milwaukee is 4-1 over its last five and had no bullpen work yesterday.
    • Dodgers own a .339 versus RHP xwOBA against Milwaukee's .326, so a multi-run win is plausible.
  26. William Contreras 2+ total bases
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • own win estimate 43%; Contreras owns .3391 xwOBA versus right-handers over 470 PA and bats third in the confirmed lineup.
    • Two total bases requires an extra-base hit or multiple hits; a routine single is not enough, and four plate appearances may not materialize.
  27. Tommy Edman under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0-for-5 over his last five games; under 0.5 hits in 7 of his last 10.
    • Season average is .250 against right-handed pitching across 225 plate appearances.
    • Logan Henderson allows only .257 xwOBA in the current profile and has a 1.80 ERA.
    • The last-five sample is tiny, and his latest game had zero at-bats.
  28. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 18 recorded outsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yamamoto recorded 21 outs on 98 pitches in his October 6 playoff start; his 2026 regular-season profile shows 97.64 pitches per start and 33.33 innings over his last five.
    • His latest five regular-season starts were 6.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0 and 6.33 innings; he is not on the IL and has six days since his last start.
    • Dodgers relief usage was only 3.0 innings/42 pitches over three days with no back-to-back arms, leaving no emergency-workload signal forcing an early hook.
    • No beat report supplies an explicit pitch cap; high-leverage postseason decisions can override the demonstrated leash.
  29. Game total under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters are Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) and Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP); dome conditions and posted lineups are confirmed.
    • Live Pinnacle posts 7.0, not 7.5 (Over +103 / Under -116); no exact-line sharp reference exists, so this is the permitted no-sharp Tier 3 fallback.
    • Most likely loss: eight or more runs arrive through an early crooked inning, late bullpen damage, or extra innings.
  30. Total runs under 7
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX under 7 pushes at exactly seven runs; a 6.5 under would lose on that key number.
    • Confirmed starters: Logan Henderson and Yoshinobu Yamamoto; current-season xFIPs are 3.30 and 3.28.
    • Right-handed-opponent xwOBA is .3264 for Milwaukee and .3390 for Los Angeles; dome conditions remove wind variance.
    • Likeliest loss path: eight or more runs after one offense converts a big inning or home-run variance.
  31. Freddie Freeman home runs 1+Favorite
    +18%Won

    Taken at 85¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • American Family Field's 2026 left-handed HR factor is 93; the closed roof and 0-mph wind add no power boost.
    • Freeman is confirmed batting second; 16 HR in 657 regular-season PA supports roughly 88% no-HR in this matchup.
    • Pinnacle's +490 HR price tracks Polymarket's 16c YES, so this is a model-only projection edge; Polymarket US offers NO at 85c.
    • Freeman's left-handed platoon matchup and second-place lineup slot can create four or more plate appearances.
  32. Logan Henderson over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −205 on Fanatics

    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerUp 19% over 36 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s 5.5-K anchor (+100/-122) de-vigs to 47.6% for Henderson over 5.5, pulled 12:19:15 PDT.
    • Henderson’s regular-season matchup inputs show 395 batters faced across 18 starts and a +8.08-point clash K-rate adjustment.
    • BF Poisson-binomial/binomial fit shifted to the sharp anchor gives approximately 67.7% for 5+ strikeouts.
    • The estimated edge is only about 0.5 percentage points; rounding and model-shape error can erase it.
  33. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 7.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +146 on FanDuel

    K’sDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is approximately 7.1 Ks; P(8+) estimated at 44% versus +146 break-even 40.7%.
    • Chris Segal's pitcher fit is positive at +0.72 percentage points with fit z-score 3.12.
    • The 7.5 alternate is materially cheaper than the 6.5 main line: FanDuel +146 versus -130.
    • Yamamoto reached 8+ Ks in 4 of his last 10 regular-season starts; removing the 10-K outlier leaves 4 of 9.
  34. First inning over 0.5 runs
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top-three xwOBA averages are .347 for Los Angeles and .342 for Milwaukee; both face right-handed starters.
    • Yamamoto’s first-inning profile allows 23 hits, 10 walks and 4 homers in 116 PA; Henderson allows 14 hits, 6 walks and 1 homer in 74 PA.
    • Henderson’s first-inning strikeout rate is 40.5%, creating a real path to a clean Dodgers first frame.
  35. Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers first-five total under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply Dodgers 55.5% to win and a low, right-skewed full-game scoring distribution: 56.5% over 6.5, 42.5% over 7.5.
    • 2025-26 MLB finals show mean 8.9, median 8, and 4.5-run standard deviation; the anchor curve is a low-scoring shift, not symmetric Poisson.
    • The F5 ladder prices over 2.5 at 66¢ and over 3.5 at 50¢; strong starters make the 2.5 rung look rich versus the fitted game process.
    • One early homer or command collapse defeats the under; MLB scoring is materially right-skewed.
  36. Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers under 5.5 first-five runsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed RHP starters show Yamamoto at 2.94 xERA/0.71 WHIP and Henderson at 2.74 xERA/1.00 WHIP.
    • Live state is 1-1 in the top of the second; under 5.5 needs no more than three additional runs across the remaining 3.5 innings.
    • Full-game 7.5 under is 53c on Polymarket US, directionally consistent with a lower-scoring starter-led first five.
    • Two runs are already in; one crooked inning can erase the remaining three-run cushion.
  37. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters and posted lineups reduce identity uncertainty: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Logan Henderson, with both top nines listed.
    • Henderson's opposing Dodgers top three show .314 xwOBA and 33.3% strikeouts; Yamamoto's Brewers top three show .336 xwOBA and 22.6% strikeouts.
    • American Family Field is a closed dome with no wind or weather penalty, reducing one source of early-run variance.
    • Pinnacle does not quote the ±1.5 F5 spread; the corroboration is venue self-reference only.
  38. Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers under 4.5 first-five runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters carry 2026 xERAs of 2.94 (Yamamoto) and 2.74 (Henderson).
    • The posted top-five lineups are productive but not explosive: opposing top-five xwOBA is .326 versus Yamamoto and .339 versus Henderson.
    • Early-run indicators are favorable: Yamamoto's first-inning BA is .217; Henderson's is .206 with a 40.5% first-inning strikeout rate.
    • There is no external sharp quote for this ±1.5 F5 / F5-total ladder; the coherence check is venue self-reference only.
  39. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • direct run-distribution model estimates 17% tied after nine versus the Kalshi contract's 14¢ graded price.
    • Current score is 1-1 in the first; conditional remaining-run means stay close, preserving tie probability rather than creating a projected margin.
    • Both starters carry low expected run indicators: Yamamoto xERA 2.94, Henderson xERA 2.74; park factor is 96 runs.
    • No clean sharp reference exists for extra innings; this is a model versus Kalshi's own price, with a modest three-point gap.
  40. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 18.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +121 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.2% of Yamamoto's 29 starts in 2026 cleared 18.5 outs; regular-season rate was 53.6%.
    • He averaged 19.8 outs across 28 regular-season starts and recorded 22 quality starts.
    • His most recent playoff start reached 21 outs on 98 pitches; today's starter and lineup are confirmed.
    • The 18.5-out threshold requires at least 6.1 innings; an early hook or pitch-count decision can lose despite strong pitching.

Questions

Who won Dodgers vs. Brewers?

The Brewers won 7-4 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.

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