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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Brewers103-59
6–4Final
Dodgers100-62
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0002210016
LAD0400000004

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cooper Pratt under 0.5 RBI −450

Why Daryl’s Strawberry’s likes it: 10 of his last 10 games finished with 0 RBI.

Daryl’s Strawberry’sDown 2% this season · 263 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 21-35 on this game · −10% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win10 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    10 modelsFade the Arm, Drift +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Shane Drohan's ERA is 10.45 L3 and 6.64 L5 versus 4.19 season; recent form deteriorated.
    • Drohan's xwOBA allowed rises from .283 TTO1 to .313 TTO3 and .312 TTO4, showing late-order decay.
    • Velocity is not drifting down: Drohan's latest measured fastball was 96.36 mph versus a 94.1 season baseline.
    Drift
    • Confirmed lineups; Dodgers carry 110.5 wRC+ versus Milwaukee's 107.8, with handedness xwOBA .3286 versus .3269.
    • Dodgers bullpen workload is lighter: 3.0 IP/56 pitches over three days versus Milwaukee's 4.0 IP/66.
    • Pinnacle moved -152 open to -146 current, roughly 1.0p against Dodgers; treated as flat, not confirmation.
    Pen Check
    • Own fair estimate 64% (~-178) versus FanDuel -156; market devigged probability is 58.2%.
    • Tyler Glasnow owns a 2.88 xERA, .263 xwOBA allowed and 11.92 K/9 in 2026 regular season.
    • Milwaukee's rested bullpen has only 66 pitches over three days and no back-to-back relievers, limiting the bullpen-game penalty.
    Undertow
    • Signal decay is 0.8% and 0.9%, comfortably inside the live ≤5% band.
    • Polymarket US is open and tradable, with Dodgers 58.5c and Brewers 42.0c genuinely quoted.
    • Milwaukee is 16-4 over its last 20; Los Angeles is 13-7, and Milwaukee won the last meeting 6-2.
  2. Shane Drohan over 7.5 outs recorded2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB HunterV2, MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • 19 of 19 2026 starts cleared 7.5 outs; season average was 14.84 outs.
    • His last five starts produced 8, 11, 12, 15, and 15 outs despite recent shorter workloads.
    • Postseason managers can use a materially shorter hook than the regular-season sample indicates.
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Last five starts: 8, 11, 12, 15, 15 outs; 12.2 average and 100% cleared 7.5.
    • Recent five-start workload: 367 pitches, 20.33 innings, and 3.92 pitches per plate appearance.
    • Two of five recent starts failed to complete four innings; estimated hook probability before 12 outs is 40%.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Sharp Cohort MLB
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Shane Drohan posted a 6.64 L5 ERA versus 4.19 season; season xFIP is 3.96 and xERA 3.81.
    • TTO decay: Drohan's xwOBA allowed rises from .283 first time through to .313 third; third-time K rate falls to 20.7%.
    • Most likely loss: Drohan survives early traffic and Milwaukee keeps the Dodgers within one run.
    Sharp Cohort MLB
      • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins, but not by at least two runs.
    • Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases2 models agree
      +150%Won

      Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsWarning Track, Small Ball
      Why 2 models like it
      Warning Track
      • Platoon fit is strong: .500 slugging and .3675 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching across 221 PA.
      • Park factor is 110 for home runs, with a 4 mph wind out to right field; lineup spot is confirmed ninth/DH.
      • Ohtani is a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed starter; the platoon advantage is not universal across contact types.
      Small Ball
      • Ohtani owns a .500 SLG and .3675 xwOBA versus left-handers across 221 PA, with 30 regular-season home runs.
      • Dodger Stadium's 110 HR park factor and 89°F weather with wind out to right support extra-base upside.
      • Drohan's .301 xwOBA allowed and 26.1% hard-hit rate can suppress Ohtani's contact quality.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to win2 models agree
      0%Push

      Taken at −154 on DraftKings

      2 modelsThe Core 6 Independent Syndicate, Number Earned
      Why 2 models like it
      The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
      • Glasnow: 2.88 xERA and .263 xwOBA allowed; Drohan: 3.81 xERA and .301 xwOBA allowed.
      • Drohan's current-season L5 ERA is 6.64 versus 4.30 for Glasnow.
      • Both offenses have similar handedness splits: Dodgers .329 xwOBA versus LHP, Brewers .327 versus RHP.
      Number Earned
      • Glasnow owns a 2.88 xERA versus Drohan's 3.81, the clearest matchup separation.
      • Glasnow's 33.4% strikeout rate carries an 11.0-point positive matchup delta against Milwaukee.
      • Glasnow's latest start lasted only 4.2 innings, so a short leash could reduce the starter edge.
    • Tyler Glasnow over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
      +65%Won

      Taken at −155 on BetMGM

      2 modelsK’s, Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
      Why 2 models like it
      K’s
      • Model mean is approximately 8.0 Ks from 23, 24 projected TBF and a 34.8% 60/40 recency-season K-rate blend.
      • Glasnow's 2026 profile shows 34.0% K, 31.5% whiff, 33.1% CSW and 25.0% K-BB; the independent whiff feed agrees at 31.5%.
      • Milwaukee's right-handed split is only 22.4% K over 4,565 PA, not a top-quartile strikeout matchup.
      Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
      • Last four starts: 78/91/98/91 pitches; 5.83 projected innings and no IL or opener flag.
      • Three put-away pitches clear 35% whiff: curveball 65.2%, knuckle curve 49.1%, slider 40.2%.
      • Milwaukee's posted nine is contact-leaning at 22.4% K versus right-handers, below the favorable 24% band.
    Show all 42 picks
    1. Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 team runs2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      2 modelsOne Side of the Board, Bello
      Why 2 models like it
      One Side of the Board
      • Confirmed Dodgers lineup faces lefty Shane Drohan; Los Angeles posted .3286 xwOBA and 20.5% K rate versus left-handed pitching.
      • Drohan's season profile allows .301 xwOBA with 3.81 xERA; his last-five-start rolling line is 6.64 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and 4.07 IP.
      • Tyler Glasnow is an elite opposing starter: .263 xwOBA allowed, 2.88 xERA and 11.92 K/9 in the verified playoff profile.
      Bello
      • Dodgers posted lineup confirmed: Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Tucker, Hernández, Rojas, Pages, Hernández.
      • Milwaukee starter Shane Drohan owns a 6.64 L5 ERA; Los Angeles carries a .3286 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching.
      • Dodgers are 2-3 with a -0.6 recent scoring-margin signal; the market may be correctly fading their current offense.
    2. Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +124 on FanDuel

      2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
      Why 2 models like it
      Señor Strikeouts
      • Glasnow recorded 5, 11, 10, 7, and 8 strikeouts in his last five starts; four cleared 6.5.
      • His last-five K/9 was 12.89, with 88.4 pitches per start over the regular-season sample.
      • Glasnow's most recent start produced only 5 strikeouts in 4.67 innings on 78 pitches.
      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
      • Model projects 7.6 strikeouts; 63% probability of 7 or more.
      • Glasnow is at 11.92 K/9 season-long and 12.89 K/9 over his last five starts.
      • Glasnow's most recent start produced 5 Ks in 4.67 innings on 78 pitches, so an early hook loses this.
    3. Shohei Ohtani 1+ home runLong shot2 models agree
      +669%Won

      Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsSmall Ball, Warning Track
      Why 2 models like it
      Small Ball
      • Ohtani hit 12 HR in 221 PA versus left-handers and owns a .3675 split xwOBA.
      • Confirmed leadoff slot projects 4.3, 4.6 PA; Shane Drohan averages 4.95 innings and 81.1 pitches per regular-season start.
      • Ohtani has 0 HR in 28 current postseason PA, a tiny but negative form signal.
      Warning Track
      • Dodger Stadium's current HR factor is 110 and the 4 mph wind is out to right field, aligning with Ohtani's pull-side power.
      • no external HR prop was quoted in the live sportsbook pull; this is a direct batter/pitcher/park/wind projection.
      • Left-on-left matchup and a 4 mph wind are weaker than a clear platoon/wind-out setup.
    4. Milwaukee Brewers to win2 models agree
      +134%Won

      Taken at +134 on DraftKings

      2 modelsELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0, Underdawg
      Why 2 models like it
      ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0
      • Market baseline is 42.1% for Milwaukee from Pinnacle -144/+133; my estimate is 44.0%.
      • Milwaukee is 16-4 over its last 20; Los Angeles is 13-7 over its last 20.
      • Glasnow has a major starter edge: 2.88 regular-season xERA, 11.92 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP.
      Underdawg
      • +135 at Caesars is inside the +100 to +160 underdog gate.
      • Brewers +1.32 season run-differential runs per nine versus Dodgers +1.24; 0.08 gap confirms a tight team profile, using the required fallback.
      • Tyler Glasnow's 2.89 xFIP is 1.06 better than Shane Drohan's 3.96, the clearest matchup disadvantage.
    5. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.5High conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dodgers lead current-season wRC+ 110.5 to 107.8 and ISO .1684 to .1447; home park and 89°F conditions support their scoring edge.
      • Most likely loss: Milwaukee's +214 run differential and strong 103-59 record produce a one-run Dodgers win or Brewers outright win.
    6. Cooper Pratt under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
      +22%Won

      Taken at −450 on BetMGM

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 10 of his last 10 games finished with 0 RBI.
      • Tyler Glasnow's 2026 xwOBA allowed versus right-handed batters is .2284, 27.8% below the .3163 league split average.
      • Pratt bats right-handed and is confirmed seventh in Milwaukee's starting lineup.
      • RBI outcomes are opportunity-driven; one hit with runners aboard can lose the under.
    7. Shohei Ohtani HRR YES 0.5Favorite
      +41%Won

      Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • DERIVED fair 74.5%: DK hit/run/RBI devig union 87.6%, 15% correlation haircut; model 80.0%, gap 5.5p.
      • No direct Pinnacle HRR quote; fair is derived from DK's separate same-event props and depends on the correlation haircut.
    8. Los Angeles Dodgers inning 7 winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • [PROJECTION] Starters average 4.67 playoff innings (Glasnow) and 4.95 innings (Drohan), putting inning 7 in the bullpen regime.
      • [PROJECTION] MIL used 66 bullpen pitches over the prior three days versus LAD 56; both had zero back-to-back relievers, a modest LAD availability edge.
      • The gap is small: LAD is only 1¢ above MIL in inning 7 and 2¢ below its inning-6 price.
    9. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed second in the Dodgers lineup; the lineup was posted at 4:10 PM PDT.
      • Mookie owns a .3576 xwOBA and .4311 SLG versus left-handers in 184 PA this season.
      • Dodger Stadium's 110 HR park factor and 4-mph wind out to right add modest power support.
      • A 2+ TB result needs multiple hits or one extra-base hit; normal single-game variance is wide.
    10. 3-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +41900

      Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Senators: Ottawa is 5-2 at home while New York is 3-3; Barzal remains on IR, and Ottawa is -146 (59.35c).
      • Dodgers: Glasnow's 2.88 expected ERA and .190 expected average face a Brewers bullpen used for 9.0 innings and 127 pitches; -144 (59.02c).
      • ProphetX re-quoted the exact three-leg slip +420, with $1,000 maximum stake and $100 fillable at the quote.
      • Cleveland's bullpen has worked 8.0 innings and 106 pitches over three days, more than Tampa Bay's 6.0 and 95.
    11. Tyler Glasnow 6 or more strikeouts
      +64%Won

      Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 14 starts average 5.62 IP and 7.36 K; innings-mixture model gives 70.9% for 6+.
      • Glasnow’s last five regular-season starts: 29.33 IP, 42 K, 12.89 K/9.
      • Projected Brewers lineup has 758 K in 3,315 platoon PA versus right-handers: 22.9%.
      • The Brewers lineup is projected, not confirmed; substitutions can change the 22.9% matchup estimate.
    12. Shane Drohan under 2.5 strikeouts
      +74%Won

      Taken at −135 on DraftKings

      K-Zone FadeUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dodgers strike out 20.5% vs left-handed pitching, clearing the brief's sub-21.5% gate.
      • Drohan averages 81.1 pitches per start; his last three outings totaled only 185 pitches, or 61.7 per game.
      • His last three appearances produced exactly two strikeouts each, on 21, 47, and 23 pitches.
      • Drohan's 9.58 L3 K/9 is above his 9.02 season mark, so the strikeout trend itself does not support the under.
    13. Tyler Glasnow 6+ strikeouts
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      Mr. StrikeoutsUp 64% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 15.43 K/9 over his last three regular-season starts; 5.8 projected innings implies 10.0 projected Ks.
      • Three of his last four starts reached 80+ pitches; none was below 70.
      • Knuckle curve: 49.1% whiff on 21.2% usage; slider: 40.2% whiff on 17.9% usage.
      • His latest playoff start ended at 78 pitches and only 4.67 innings.
    14. Los Angeles Dodgers −2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

      Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The fitted margin distribution gives Los Angeles 33.5% to win by at least three runs; the contract costs 29.5c.
      • Glasnow's 2.88 xERA versus Drohan's 3.81 supports the Dodgers' moderate 58% win estimate; both confirmed lineups are posted.
      • A 58% Dodgers win estimate still leaves many one- and two-run outcomes that miss -2.5.
    15. Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −213 on DraftKings

      PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 hit-game rate 99/132 (75.0%); recent L5 3/5 (60%) and L10 8/10 (80%) clear every gate.
      • Own estimate ~74% versus DraftKings -213 implied 68.1%, a 5.9-point projection edge.
      • Confirmed leadoff hitter; active on the live odds roster and listed in MLB's official lineup card.
      • Glasnow allows only .190 expected batting average and carries an 11.92 K/9 season mark.
    16. Tyler Glasnow over 1.5 earned runs
      +83%Won

      Taken at −121 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • xERA 2.88, SIERA 2.95, but 3.53 season ERA and 4.30 ERA over his last five starts.
      • Milwaukee's confirmed lineup owns .327 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, with 10.8% BB-HBP rate.
      • Glasnow's 2.88 xERA and 25.4% K-BB% support a clean start despite the recent ERA.
    17. Game total Under 8.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

      Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both confirmed lineups posted at 2:20 PM; opposing lineup xwOBA is .3286 for LAD versus LHP and .3269 for MIL versus RHP.
      • Most likely loss: warm 89°F conditions, wind out to right, and Dodger Stadium's 110 HR factor turn contact into a power cluster.
    18. Under 8 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are Under 3 versus Over 3; this measure is tied, but thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth gives two of three measures.
      • Directional coherence check: backing Under 8, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • This is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; stale or un-cancelled resting orders can mimic patient demand.
    19. Los Angeles Dodgers F5 to win
      0%Push

      Taken at −152 on williamhill_us

      MLB Default PicksUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current sharp F5 anchor: Dodgers 57.4% (fair -135); model is 64.4% (fair -181).
      • Starter ledger +7: Glasnow 2.89 xFIP versus Drohan 3.96 (+5); .263 versus .301 xwOBA allowed (+2).
      • Both starters and all 18 batting-order slots are confirmed; no listed IL position player is in either lineup.
      • F5 opening-to-current movement is N/A: the captured history feed only provides full-game markets.
    20. Game total over 7.5 runs
      +82%Won

      Taken at −122 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.4 runs, fair total line 8.4, win probability 58.5%, push probability 0.0% (refreshed 6:25 PM CDT).
      • 89°F, open roof, and 4-mph wind to right field support run conversion; HR park factor is 110 despite a 98 runs factor.
      • Milwaukee and Los Angeles posted .3269 and .3286 xwOBA versus the opposing starter's handedness.
      • Tyler Glasnow's 2.88 xERA and .263 xwOBA allowed can suppress Milwaukee if he works deep.
    21. Shohei Ohtani under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ohtani stayed under 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in each of his last 10 games; his last five totals were 1, 0, 1, 1, 0.
      • His last-7 batting average is .1786 versus a .2753 full-season average, a 35% form decline.
      • Los Angeles owns only a .2445 average and .3286 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, while Shane Drohan is a confirmed lefty starter.
      • Ohtani leads off and receives a full plate-appearance expectation, creating multiple paths through walks, hits, and runs.
    22. Tyler Glasnow over 6.0 strikeouts
      0%Push

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Glasnow averaged 8.2 strikeouts across his last five starts (41% above the 6.0 line).
      • He is a confirmed active starter, with 11, 10, 7, and 8 strikeouts in four of his prior five starts.
      • PrizePicks posted the live 6.0 projection at -137.
      • His most recent start produced only 5 strikeouts in 4.2 innings, so workload is the main failure path.
    23. Shane Drohan over 8.5 recorded outsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • model makes 9+ outs roughly 42%, versus Kalshi's graded YES price of 19¢.
      • Structural workload signal: Milwaukee called this a bullpen game, and Drohan shifted to relief late under a loose innings limit.
      • Drohan averages 4.95 IP and 81.11 pitches per start, but his last five starts total only 20.33 IP and 367 pitches.
      • The bullpen-game plan can still cap Drohan at two innings; the article gives no exact pitch or inning limit.
    24. Game extra inningsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • model centers Milwaukee 3.3 and Los Angeles 3.6 runs; tied-after-nine probability is about 15%.
      • The 0.3-run mean gap keeps the run distributions overlapping; this is a tightness signal, not a Dodgers-favorite signal.
      • Park runs factor is 98; Glasnow's 2.88 xERA and Drohan's 3.81 xERA support a lower scoring center than the teams' regular-season 5.14/4.94 runs per game.
      • Both platoon xwOBAs are ordinary rather than weak: Milwaukee .3269 versus RHP and Los Angeles .3286 versus LHP.
    25. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tyler Glasnow's 2.89 xFIP beats Shane Drohan's 3.96 by 1.06, clearing the +0.75 pitching-led gate.
      • Dodgers' posted lineup is confirmed; their .3286 xwOBA versus left-handers is narrowly above Milwaukee's .3269 versus right-handers.
      • The run line loses on a one-run Dodgers win even though the existing Dodgers moneyline position wins.
    26. Shane Drohan over 0.5 earned runs
      +69%Won

      Taken at −144 on DraftKings

      Starter Stress TestUp 105% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Drohan is a confirmed starter; the live participant feed lists him active for Milwaukee.
      • Recent form is poor: 10.45 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts versus 4.19 and 1.32 season marks.
      • Los Angeles clears the fallback offense gate with a 111.0 season wRC+; its split versus left-handers shows .3286 xwOBA and only a 20.5% K rate.
      • Drohan's recent three-start sample is thin, while his season hard-hit rate is only 26.1% and barrel rate 4.7%; command and contact deterioration are not independently confirmed.
    27. Tyler Glasnow over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +37%Won

      Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

      High LimboUp 7% over 29 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 9 valid L10 starts: 5, 11, 10, 7, 8, 6, 7, 9, 9; median 9, minimum 5, max 11.
      • Low Hurdle qualifies: 4.5 is 4.5 Ks below median and 0.5 below the minimum; 9/9 cleared.
      • Latest fastball was 96.75 mph/2,573 rpm versus 95.61/2,525 season baseline; physical gate passes.
      • Only 0.5-K headroom sits above the observed valid minimum; contact or an early exit loses at four or fewer.
    28. Total runs over 8
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • No cluster or bullpen penalty: MIL/LAD wRC+ 108.6/111.2, ISO .147/.1695, starter K/9 9.02/11.92, and bullpen IP last 3d 4.0/3.0.
      • Most likely loss: Tyler Glasnow and Shane Drohan convert their strong strikeout profiles, while rested bullpens protect a low-scoring game.
    29. Los Angeles Dodgers over 3.5 team runs
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Anchor fit: Dodgers win price 61¢ and full-game over 7.5 runs 41¢ imply a roughly 4.0, 4.2 run Dodgers share.
      • 2023, 26 postseason games averaged 7.98 total runs; the current 7.5-run anchor is already a conservative scoring calibration.
      • Sharp live reference agrees directionally: Pinnacle showed Dodgers -146 while the live total was 7.0.
      • The game is live at 0-0 in the top of the 2nd; the scoreless start can reduce remaining Dodgers run opportunity.
    30. Los Angeles Dodgers win the 7th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal-coherence fit: Dodgers moneyline anchor implies ~58.5% full-game win probability; 7.5 total anchor implies roughly 7.7 runs.
      • Historical playoff totals are right-skewed: 2023-25 averaged about 8.2 runs; the 2026 playoff sample averages 6.9, supporting a broad ~7.5-8 run fit.
      • Sharp reference agrees on direction: Pinnacle prices Los Angeles at -144; its total is 8.0, consistent with the venue’s 7.5-over anchor.
      • A single scoreless or Brewers-only inning loses despite the full-game anchors; inning outcomes are inherently high variance.
    31. 7th-inning total over 0.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Anchors imply a 58.5% Dodgers win chance and 53.5% probability of 8+ total runs.
      • Calibrating the 9,880-game 2023-26 empirical total distribution to the 7.5 anchor implies roughly 8.4 runs, or about 0.93 per inning.
      • Both bullpens have heavy recent workloads: 8.33/9.0 innings and 153/127 pitches over three days.
      • The anchor fit does not uniquely identify inning-by-inning scoring, and the seventh could feature unusually strong relievers.
    32. Shane Drohan over 2.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +111 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 65% win probability versus DraftKings +111 implied 47.4% (17.6-point margin).
      • Drohan cleared 2.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 starts.
      • He owns 9.02 regular-season K/9 and 9.74 K/9 over his last five starts.
      • Los Angeles struck out only 20.5% versus left-handers, a distinctly unfavorable matchup for this prop.
    33. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game Dodgers -1.5 is about 40%; F5 Dodgers -1.5 is 23%, coherent with a forgiving F5 dog spread.
      • Top-five versus-hand xwOBA averages .348 for Milwaukee versus Glasnow and .342 for Los Angeles versus Drohan.
      • Glasnow's current regular-season profile: 11.92 K/9, .263 xwOBA allowed, and .192 first-inning batting average.
      • Drohan's 4.19 season ERA and the Dodgers' lefty top five could create an early multi-run gap.
    34. Game F5 total under 5.5Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Glasnow's 2.88 xERA and .263 xwOBA-against are materially better than Drohan's 3.81 and .301.
      • Top-five lineup xwOBA is similar: Dodgers vs LHP about .342; Brewers vs RHP about .348.
      • full-game total is 7.5 while the F5 ladder prices Over 5.5 at 35c.
      • Drohan's 4.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP leave room for an early Dodgers multi-run inning.
    35. Game total Under 8
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • LAD Under 4 (-102) and MIL Under 3.5 (-115) imply 7.5 runs.
      • Confirmed lineups were posted; opposing lineup xwOBA is .3286 for LAD and .3269 for MIL.
      • Dodger Stadium's 98 run factor offsets its 110 HR factor; no reliever was flagged on back-to-back days.
      • Most likely loss: 89°F and wind out to right can turn the 110 HR factor into a quick power cluster.
    36. Game total over 8
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 89°F and a 4 mph wind out to right in an open Dodger Stadium create a favorable run-environment nudge.
      • Milwaukee versus right-handers: .2608 AVG, .4075 SLG, .3269 xwOBA; Los Angeles versus left-handers: .3286 xwOBA.
      • Shane Drohan carries a 4.19 ERA and .301 xwOBA against, giving the game a vulnerable starter on the Milwaukee side.
      • Most likely loss: Tyler Glasnow's strikeout-heavy profile dominates Milwaukee and the Brewers fail to reach Drohan's matchup weakness.

    Questions

    Who won Brewers vs. Dodgers?

    The Brewers won 6-4 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

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