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FinalTropicana Field
Brewers103-59
3–4Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789101112T
MIL0001100000013
TB0101000000024

Top model pick, graded

Won

Griffin Jax over 11.5 pitcher outs recorded +110

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: Projected 13.0 outs, 1.5 above the 11.5 line; estimated clear probability 65%.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-16 on this game · −12% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsResting Money, Fade the Arm +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Raw book levels: Brewers 3, Rays 3; this measure is neutral, while the two core depth measures point to Milwaukee.
    • Direction check: backing Milwaukee Brewers, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Live state at lookup: 0-0, top of the 2nd; current game conditions can rapidly change both price and depth.
    Fade the Arm
    • Griffin Jax: 4.27 xERA vs 3.29 ERA; xwOBA allowed climbs from .281 in TTO1 to .369 in TTO2.
    • Milwaukee vs right-handers: .327 xwOBA, .4068 SLG, .2235 K rate; confirmed batting order clears the platoon gate.
    • Most likely loss: Jax limits damage before the second trip and May’s 4.45 xERA / 3.96 xFIP profile keeps Tampa in the game.
    Deep Book
    • the moneyline qualifies on a 3-10x size ratio. Run-line flow favors Milwaukee too, but only 2.49x.
    • Run-line size is below the 3x signal threshold; total flow is mixed across rungs and does not upgrade the read.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Milwaukee is 18-2 over its last 20 (+2.0 runs/game), versus Tampa Bay 11-9 (+0.4); Milwaukee also won yesterday 10-1.
    • Full personnel gate: both probable starters and batting orders are confirmed, and neither starter is on the active IL list.
    • Likeliest loss path: Griffin Jax's 3.41 xFIP outperforms Dustin May's 3.96 and Tampa's bats rebound after yesterday's 10-1 loss.
  2. Griffin Jax over 1.5 earned runs2 models agree
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on BetMGM

    2 modelsStarter Stress Test, Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER Model
    Why 2 models like it
    Starter Stress Test
    • Jax’s postseason ERA is 6.00 and WHIP 1.50; his two starts allowed 3 and 1 earned runs.
    • His regular-season baseline was 3.29 ERA/1.18 WHIP, a notable recent deterioration.
    • Only two recent postseason starts underpin the 6.00 ERA; this is a small, volatile sample.
    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER Model
    • 112.3 IP across 23 starts; 4.49 IP/start supports a 4.25-IP workload estimate.
    • 4.27 xERA over 4.25 IP, adjusted by Tropicana's 0.96 run factor: mean 1.94 ER; Poisson P(2+) ≈57.7%.
    • Jax averaged only 4.49 IP/start; an early hook can leave too few batters faced for two earned runs.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays to win2 models agree
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsUnderdawg, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Underdawg
    • +106 meets the brief’s +100 to +160 underdog price band; FanDuel’s h2h price is current.
    • Tampa Bay starter Griffin Jax’s 3.41 xFIP is 0.56 lower than Dustin May’s 3.96; the edge favors the dog, though it exceeds the brief’s 0.50 weigh threshold.
    • Milwaukee’s +214 run differential dwarfs Tampa Bay’s +86, and the Brewers won the previous game 10-1.
    Long Way Home
    • I make Tampa Bay a 50.5% winner versus ProphetX’s 47.39¢ graded price; this is a modest matchup projection, not a payout-based case.
    • Griffin Jax is confirmed as Tampa Bay’s starter: 3.29 ERA and 1.18 WHIP versus Dustin May’s 4.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP; their FIP figures are close and slightly favor May.
    • Most likely loss: May’s better FIP (3.63 to Jax’s 3.76) proves more predictive and Milwaukee’s offense carries forward its 10, 1 win yesterday.
  4. Griffin Jax over 11.5 pitcher outs recorded
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 13.0 outs, 1.5 above the 11.5 line; estimated clear probability 65%.
    • Jax recorded 12+ outs in 18 of 23 regular-season starts; his latest postseason start reached 12 outs on 67 pitches.
    • Recent six starts averaged 12.3 outs and 64.0 pitches; estimated pitch count today is about 70, with 3.90 P/PA as the league-average fallback.
    • Estimated boundary-clustered distribution leaves 35% below 12 outs; three of Jax’s last six starts ended before 12 outs.
  5. Jake Bauers 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bauers has a .068 barrel rate, .386 fly-ball rate, .218 ISO and 26 HR in 477 at-bats; confirmed batting second.
    • Tropicana’s listed HR park factor is 111; roof is closed, so no wind adjustment applies.
    • Griffin Jax’s current-season profile allows a .269 fly-ball rate and .146 HR/fly-ball; matchup is viable though not an extreme pitcher weakness.
    • One-game HR outcomes are highly volatile; a strong profile can still produce no barrel or a ball that stays in the park.
  6. Griffin Jax 4+ strikeouts
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jax has 1 K through 1⅓ IP and 25 pitches; confirmed starter and live game state verified.
    • MIL’s confirmed lineup struck out 757 times in 3,315 PA vs. RHP (22.8%); Jax recorded 116 K in 112⅓ IP this season (9.29 K/9).
    • Innings mixture for the rest: 1.7/2.7/3.7/4.7 IP at 20/30/30/20%; estimated final-K distribution: 1+ 6%, 2 15%, 3 19%, 4 19%, 5 17%, 6+ 24% (P[4+] ≈60%).
    • 25 pitches in four outs raises the chance Jax is pulled early; a three-inning outing sharply reduces the 4+ chance.
Show all 26 picks
  1. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top orders: Milwaukee’s Chourio-Bauers-Yelich and Tampa Bay’s Díaz-Aranda-Caminero; the first three are actually in tonight’s lineup.
    • The team scoreless-rate combination assumes independence; pitcher, lineup sequencing and park effects make that approximation imperfect.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson estimate: λ≈4.5 runs gives 65.8% for 4+; trimmed to 61.5% for uncertainty.
    • Milwaukee scored 5.85 runs/game over its prior 20 regular-season games; season rate was 5.14.
    • Griffin Jax's 3.29 ERA is offset by 4.27 xERA; Rays used 8.7 bullpen innings and 183 pitches over three days.
    • Poisson scoring is a simplifying assumption; run outcomes are overdispersed and lineup-level scoring varies.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s live exact 3.5 rung is Milwaukee over -126 / under +108; devigged over fair is 53.7%.
    • Milwaukee’s confirmed nine faces right-hander Griffin Jax; the Brewers’ team xwOBA vs RHP is .3273, and Jax’s season xwOBA-against is .317 with 4.27 xERA.
    • Tampa’s bullpen has worked 8.67 innings over three days; game is live, 1-0 Tampa in the bottom of the second, with most of the game remaining.
    • Milwaukee has yet to score through two innings and needs four runs; one slow stretch or a short game can sink the over.
  4. Griffin Jax over 11.5 pitching outs
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 starts cleared 11.5 outs (13.9-out mean); 4 of his last 5 cleared.
    • Recent workload averaged 13.2 outs and 65.2 pitches over five starts; no active IL or cap flag.
    • 35.2% CSW and a .016 third-vs-first TTO xwOBA gap support duration; no TTO cliff.
    • One of Jax's last five starts ended at 9 outs; the recent sample is small and duration is volatile.
  5. Ryan Vilade under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at −369 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings prices under 0.5 RBI at -369, inside the brief’s required -300 to -1000 range.
    • Vilade is confirmed in Tampa Bay’s lineup, batting seventh, against right-hander Dustin May.
    • He recorded zero RBI in 8 of his last 10 games (80%), meeting the recent-performance gate.
    • The recent record is exactly at the 80% threshold; two RBI outcomes in the last 10 show the volatility.
  6. Griffin Jax under 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Rays starter; 3.25-K workload projection: last 3 starts averaged 50.3 pitches / 16 × 9.29 season K/9 ÷ 9.
    • Season 9.29 K/9, 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP; regular-season L3/L5 K/9 9.0/6.97. Hoye assigned; no verified umpire K/called-strike adjustment, so 0.
    • Workload-based projection is uncertain: a longer World Series leash after 12 days' rest could push him beyond 4.5 Ks; no pitch cap was confirmed.
  7. William Contreras over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +132 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L10 exact line: 7 overs, 3 unders, 0 pushes; all 10 games are observed.
    • Milwaukee ranks 2nd/30 in 2026 xwOBA vs right-handed pitching (.3273); Jax throws right-handed.
    • The Poisson approximation is imperfect for total bases and may understate zero-heavy or extra-base-hit variance.
  8. Griffin Jax over 3.5 strikeouts
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jax has 2, 1 and 5 Ks in his last three starts; FanDuel offers -113 on over 3.5.
    • Jax is confirmed as Tampa Bay's starter; the current K line is priced at FanDuel.
    • Those last three starts average only 2.7 Ks, and he has not pitched since Oct. 15 (11 days).
  9. Junior Caminero 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate 21%; Junior has 35 HR in 544 PA versus right-handers and a .343 xwOBA split.
    • Confirmed third in the order; about 4.1, 4.3 PA expected, with Jax confirmed right-handed.
    • Tropicana's HR factor is 111; this is a same-rung external reference and Tier 1 disagreement (2.21 points).
    • One homer is a binary, high-variance outcome; at 21% estimated probability it misses about 79% of the time.
  10. Over 7.0 total runs
    0%Push

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: proxy projection 8.2 runs; fair total 8.0; Over win 57.6%, push 13.5%.
    • Both listed starters carry 2026 xERA above 4.2: Griffin Jax 4.27, Dustin May 4.45.
    • Bullpens logged 8.7 (TB) and 9.0 (MIL) innings over three days; relief availability may be strained.
    • Both starters have solid FIP indicators (Jax 3.76, May 3.63); effective outings could suppress scoring.
  11. David Hamilton over 0.5 hits
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hamilton recorded 6 hits in his last 5 games (1.2 per game) against a 0.5-hit line.
    • He had at least one hit in 4 of those 5 games; the recent rate is well above the line.
    • Milwaukee has a .262 average and .327 xwOBA against right-handed pitching; Jax is a confirmed right-handed starter.
    • Five-game form is a small sample; Hamilton can go hitless despite the recent run.
  12. Griffin Jax 12+ recorded outs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jax recorded 12 outs on 67 pitches in his latest postseason start; the 12-out threshold is four innings.
    • His 2026 regular-season workload averaged 14.6 outs per start; 4 of his 6 latest starts reached 12 outs.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen logged 9.0 innings and 137 pitches over three days, a workload signal that may extend Jax's leash.
    • No announced pitch-count plan was found; postseason managers can still choose an early hook.
  13. Tampa Bay Rays first-five to win
    0%Push

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • May: 4.45 xERA, .323 xwOBA allowed; his current-season L3 ERA is 8.59, versus Jax's 1.74 L5 ERA.
    • Tampa's confirmed lineup faces right-hander May; its 2026 split versus RHP is .311 xwOBA over 4,686 PA.
    • The expected-pitching gap is small: Jax's 4.27 xERA/.317 xwOBA allowed is close to May's 4.45/.323; May's L3 is a limited sample.
  14. Dustin May under 2.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • May's recent postseason K/9 is 5.63, below his 8.90 regular-season mark.
    • May averaged 77.39 pitches per start; his latest postseason outing was 52 pitches over 3 innings.
    • The recent postseason trend is just one start, and that outing may not predict tonight's workload.
  15. Total runs under 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX offers under 5.5 at +194 (34.01¢), with $7,232 currently offered at the graded contract; best US price is +180.
    • Partial coverage: lineups confirmed 9/9; May has 31 regular-season starts and Jax 23, but both 2026 profiles are saber-incomplete.
    • Ledger: MIL .3273 and TB .311 xwOBA vs RHP clear .310, so no platoon debit; both starters’ K/9 exceed 7.2 and both ISOs are .1447, so no cluster adjustment.
    • Most likely loss: six or more runs; under 5.5 has no push and wins only on five or fewer.
  16. Game first-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US and Pinnacle anchors agree on a 7.5-run total; Milwaukee is a modest ~52% moneyline favorite.
    • Postseason finals, 2015, 25 (331 games): 8.20 mean runs, median 8, 75th percentile 11; scoring is right-skewed.
    • A flat 7.5, 8.0 run fit gives ~0.83, 0.89 runs per inning; tempering the first inning for starters gives ~0.70 runs, or about 50% YRFI.
    • The historical final-score surface has no first-inning scoring split; starter suppression is an assumption, not directly calibrated here.
  17. Any run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed top threes are Chourio, Bauers, Yelich and Díaz, Aranda, Caminero; all six face right-handed Griffin Jax and Dustin May, with vs-R xwOBA .3246, .3703.
    • YES means any run by either team in the top or bottom of the 1st inning; the venue question confirms any run, despite its Rays-oriented yes_means label.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid first-inning reference and was not substituted; this projection uses posted hitters and first-inning starter splits.
    • First-inning samples are 94 PA for Jax and 135 for May; neither first-inning xwOBA nor ERA is exposed, so the pitcher read uses BA/K/BB/HR.
  18. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 F5 spreadFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US quotes Brewers +1.5 F5 at 73¢; no sharp reference prices this rung.
    • Confirmed top-five Brewers hitters face right-hander Griffin Jax; Milwaukee's team xwOBA vs RHP is .327, Tampa Bay's .311.
    • Pinnacle makes Milwaukee a modest full-game favorite (-114); this is only an indirect cross-check, not an F5 reference.
    • Jax's recent ERA is 1.74 over his last five; he could suppress Milwaukee through five.
  19. F5 total over 3.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Jax xERA 4.27 and May xERA 4.45; both are right-handed and allow a roughly 4.5-run combined five-inning baseline by xERA.
    • Both confirmed lineups face right-handers; team xwOBA vs RHP is .327 for Milwaukee and .311 for Tampa, each from over 4,600 PA.
    • Full-game total is centered at 7.5; that is broadly consistent with a first-five expectation around 4.2, 4.5, making 4+ runs likelier than the 54¢ price suggests.
    • Jax's 3.29 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are materially better than May's 4.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP; Jax could suppress Milwaukee early.
  20. Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on FanDuel

    MLB Default PicksUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Rays +1.5 -161 / Brewers -1.5 +145; devig anchor 60.2%, fair about -151.
    • Tampa starter edge: Jax 3.41 xFIP vs May 3.96 (+2 pp); L5 ERA/WHIP also confirm (+1).
    • Brewers xwOBA vs RHP .3273 vs Tampa .3110 costs Rays 1 pp; net ledger +2 pp → 62.2%, fair about -164.
    • Near-zero estimated edge is within model/rounding error; this is a board call, not a wager-qualified edge.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Rays?

The Rays won 4-3 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.

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