FinalSeattle Stadium · Seattle
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SEAT | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRegulation-time draw 18¢
Why xG Draw Desk likes it: 29.5% warehouse draw probability versus 17.5% Shin-devigged Pinnacle reference: +12.0 percentage points.
xG Draw DeskUp 64% return this season · 15 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +84% return
- Match total under 3.5 goals+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Team SheetWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Poisson model puts total 0, 3 goals near 81%; its own under-2.5 probability is 61.4%.
- Opponent-adjusted rates are modest: Seattle 1.38 xGF / 1.37 xGA, Montréal 0.95 xGF / 1.31 xGA.
- Lineups are unconfirmed roughly 12 hours out; feature XI and goalkeeper fields are not yet populated.
Team Sheet- CF Montréal confirmed XI: 1.27 xi_att_xg versus 2.22 recent norm, a 42.7% shortfall.
- Baseline lambdas were Seattle 1.30 and Montréal 0.94; proportional XI adjustment gives 1.30 and 0.54, total 1.84.
- The lineup feed confirms starters, but the official injury report had Nouhou questionable; a late scratch or correction is possible.
- Regulation-time draw+456%Won
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
xG Draw DeskDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 29.5% warehouse draw probability versus 17.5% Shin-devigged Pinnacle reference: +12.0 percentage points.
- Opponent-adjusted xG inputs are 1.38 Seattle home for and 0.95 Montréal away for; model lambdas are 1.30, 0.93.
- Model total is 2.23 goals, well below MLS's 3.27 current-season average; controlled scoring supports draw mass.
- Model expected-goal separation is 0.37, slightly above the preferred 0.35 threshold.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Seattle scoring read ≈74%: 1.38 oppadj xGF versus Montréal's 1.39 xGA; 9 xG matches.
- Montréal scoring read ≈69%: 0.95 oppadj xGF versus Seattle's 1.42 xGA; 10 xG matches.
- Only about 6.7 points separate my 48.7% NO estimate from the 42c price; model error can erase the edge.
- Total goals under 3.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles under-2.5 probability is 0.61, confirming the lower-goal direction; PPDA 14.17/13.88 and field tilt .478/.510 are only secondary context.
- Pinnacle posts 3.25 (-108 Over/-104 Under), but that is a different rung; the direct 3.5 contract is Kalshi.
- Seattle and Montréal have substantial recent roster turnover; the feature may lag current attacking or defensive quality.
- CF Montréal spread YES 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live state is Seattle 0, Montréal 1 at 15'; two more net Montréal goals produce the >2.5 full-match margin.
- A Montréal lead of only one means no further net goal by Montréal loses the contract.
Questions
Who won CF Montréal vs. Seattle Sounders?
Seattle Sounders won 1-1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.