FinalTQL Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CINC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 3.5 total goals 45¢
Why Two Nil likes it: The ladder's Over 2.5/3.5 prices imply roughly 3.9 total goals, about 0.6 above the opponent-adjusted xG read.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −10% return
- Under 3.5 total goals+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The ladder's Over 2.5/3.5 prices imply roughly 3.9 total goals, about 0.6 above the opponent-adjusted xG read.
- PPDA is 16.82 for Cincinnati and 14.84 for DC United; useful tempo context, but both values are proxy-based and not enough to override xG.
- no independent sharp quote exists on the exact 3.5 rung; Pinnacle's 3.75 line is not interchangeable.
- DC United to win−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC United's opponent-adjusted attacking xG is 1.67 per match; Cincinnati's is 1.80, a narrower gap than the market implies.
- Cincinnati's home form is 2-3-5 with a -11 goal difference across 10 home matches.
- The model makes Cincinnati 46.7% to win, far below the market's roughly 60%, 65% home-win pricing.
- The model is computed through October 18, not fully same-day, and its calibration is unknown.
- Both Teams To Score+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cincinnati leads 1-0 at 14'; BTTS now needs only a DC United goal.
- DC United xG-for is 1.65 versus Cincinnati xG-against 1.89 over 20 xG matches; conditional rest-of-match scoring read is about 76, 78%.
- This is not the asymmetric weak-attacker versus elite-defense setup: DC's attack faces a near-1.9 xGA defense.
- The 77% estimate is a live Poisson-style extrapolation, not a live event-xG feed; a red card, injury, or tactical shift can dominate.
- DC United spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MLS 2026 empirical distribution: DC United-style away margin of 2+ occurred 54/450 (12.0%); 0/1/2 goal differences carried most mass, consistent with a lumpy ladder.
- No push cushion: a draw, DC United one-goal win, or any Cincinnati win loses the YES contract.
Questions
Who won DC United vs. Cincinnati?
Cincinnati won 2-1 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.