FinalSubaru Park · Chester
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| PHIL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals under 3.5 53¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Pinnacle independently posts 3.5 at Over +105 / Under -118; its sharp under reference supports the Kalshi under position.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-4 on this game · +90% return
- New England to win+488%Won
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model probability 22.0% versus 16.3% Pinnacle-derived fair probability.
- New England's away form is 6-1-3 with 17 goals scored and 16 conceded.
- Philadelphia is 8-2-0 at home with 31 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Number Earned- Fair probability is 22.0%, or approximately 22¢; the contract offers about 5 percentage points of price edge.
- Philadelphia's 1.18 home xGA and New England's 1.38 opponent-adjusted away xGF narrow the home-strength gap.
- Philadelphia's home model probability is still 55.6%, supported by 2.04 opponent-adjusted home xGF and an Elo edge of 129 points.
- Match total goals under 3.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle independently posts 3.5 at Over +105 / Under -118; its sharp under reference supports the Kalshi under position.
- Philadelphia's aggressive press and the raw xG combination (3.26) are higher than the 2.97 opp-adjusted estimate; four goals beats the ticket.
- Both teams to score+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Halftime SeamDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Historical MLS BTTS rates by full-goal bucket were 51.6% at 2 goals, 74.0% at 3, and 89.2% at 4.
- Philadelphia's projected xG is 2.38 and New England's is 1.48; the combined 3.86 supports scoring from both sides.
- Neither official XI is posted; the warehouse lists Leonardo Campana and Jack Harrison out for New England, plus Sal Olivas and Philippe Ndinga for Philadelphia.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the complete full-match ladder gives a tail-sum mean of 2.71 goals.
- The clean 1H ladder fits a Poisson mean of 0.80 from 57%, 19.5%, and 4.5% over probabilities.
- Reconciled P(1H over 1.5) is 33.6%, 9.6 probability points above the 24¢ graded YES price.
- The game is live at 25' and 0-0; only about 20 minutes remain in the first half.
- Total goals under 3.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 xG-backed matches each: opponent-adjusted blend projects 2.97 expected goals (Philadelphia 1.69, New England 1.28).
- Pinnacle posts the same 3.5 rung at -118 under, roughly 53.2% after devig; projection is about 12 points higher.
- Pressing tilt is not a two-way track meet: Philadelphia is aggressive (9.55 PPDA, .593 field tilt), while New England is passive (16.62, .501). Both have seven rest days.
- Neither official XI is posted; both Andre Blake and Matt Turner are listed out, creating meaningful goalkeeper and finishing variance.
- Match under 1.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas 2.02 home and 1.21 away imply 16.8% for 0-1 total goals.
- Opponent-adjusted rates support the pair: Philadelphia 2.05/1.18 for/against; New England 1.38/1.33.
- Kalshi NO on Over 1.5 costs 14¢ against a model probability near 17%, with 111 contracts traded.
- A 3.23 combined goal rate makes this a high-variance longshot; one early goal plus an open match can end it.
Show all 8 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection; Philadelphia scoring read 82.8% and New England 72.5% using attack/defense xG averages, implying BTTS 60.0%.
- Both sides score freely enough that this is not a classic asymmetric BTTS-NO spot; the edge is price, not a low-scoring narrative.
- Philadelphia's 2.05 opp-adjusted xG-for and New England's 1.38 are both capable of producing a goal; one goal each loses immediately.
- New England spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NE away empirical check: 15 MLS matches, including four losses by exactly 2 and one by 3+; small sample, used as shape context rather than the forecast.
- Philadelphia's live context is strong (4-0-1 over its last five); New England's recent form is less dominant, making a 2+ away margin high variance.
Questions
Who won New England vs. Philadelphia Union?
New England won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.