FinalProvidence Park · Portland
Charlotte
2–3Final
Portland Timbers
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| PT | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPortland Timbers spread NO above 1.5 goals 71¢
Why Handicap likes it: Full xG coverage: Portland matchup inputs 1.47 home xGF / 2.08 Charlotte xGA; Charlotte 1.55 xGF / 1.53 Portland xGA; lambdas 1.85/1.49.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-6 on this game · −80% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsOpen Play, Soccer Default PicksWhy 2 models like it
Open Play- Coverage is 10 Portland and 9 Charlotte xG games; moderate MLS sample, with no friendlies in the window.
- A 3.03-goal Poisson translation is about 64% under 3.5; haircut to 58% for uncertainty.
- Raw xG blend is 3.57 versus the preferred opp-adjusted 3.03, a 0.54-goal model spread.
Soccer Default Picks- Kalshi's live NO cost is 52¢ on the Over 3.5 goals contract, leaving a seven-point model gap.
- Portland's 10-game form shows 1.4 goals scored per match; Charlotte's shows 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- The projected 3.3 total is close to the 3.5 line; one early goal can materially change the match state.
- Match total goals under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle prices the same 3.5 under at -103; Kalshi is the execution venue, not the independent reference.
- Only 9-10 xG matches per side, below the brief's 12-game top tier; this is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both defenses' displayed opponent clean-sheet rates are modest, 20% for Charlotte and 10% for Portland, supporting a symmetric rather than asymmetric matchup read.
- This is not the desk's strongest asymmetric NO case: both teams have substantial scoring probability, so one goal each loses the ticket.
- Portland Timbers spread NO above 1.5 goals+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full xG coverage: Portland matchup inputs 1.47 home xGF / 2.08 Charlotte xGA; Charlotte 1.55 xGF / 1.53 Portland xGA; lambdas 1.85/1.49.
- Opp-adjusted inputs are Portland 1.29 xGF/1.43 xGA and Charlotte 1.40 xGF/1.94 xGA; xG samples are 9 and 10 matches.
- Independent Poisson cross-check gives Portland winning by 2+ goals 25.5%, so NO probability is 74.5%; 2026 MLS had 119 zero-, 172 one-, 93 two-, and 67 three-plus-goal absolute margins.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed, and recent roster churn on both teams could materially alter the scoring rates.
- Game total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals total 3.34; Poisson conversion puts 0-3 goals near 57%.
- Portland's home form is 1-4-5 with 14 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- Charlotte's away form is 5-3-2, but its 18-14 away goal record still supports a competitive rather than runaway script.
- The model still makes over 2.5 goals 64.9%, so one extra goal is the entire margin.
Questions
Who won Charlotte vs. Portland Timbers?
Portland Timbers won 3-2 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.