Get app
FinalDick's Sporting Goods Park · Denver
Vancouver Whitecaps
0–1Final
Colorado Rapids
Score by period
Team12T
VANC000
CR011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colorado Rapids to win 31¢

Why Low Tide Line likes it: Feature coverage is complete: form, xG, ratings, and model probability are all present; minimum xG sample is 10 matches.

Low Tide LineDown 7% this season · 324 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 8-2 on this game · +92% return

  1. Colorado Rapids to win3 models agree
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsLow Tide Line, Long Tail Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Feature coverage is complete: form, xG, ratings, and model probability are all present; minimum xG sample is 10 matches.
    • Colorado is 0-1-4 in its last five, while Vancouver has the stronger Elo rating by 178 points.
    Long Tail Pairs
    • Vancouver coach Jesper Sørensen’s high-intensity side enters its fifth straight road match; Commerce City altitude favors Colorado’s home pace response.
    • The model also gives Colorado the stronger opponent-adjusted xG differential, +0.48 versus Vancouver’s +0.33, despite the recent form gap.
    • Expected rather than confirmed XIs; Vancouver’s official preview says it could be at full strength, so late personnel news may erase the home read.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair line is 41¢; I shade to 38% after discounting the unvalidated model and Vancouver's stronger Elo.
    • Colorado are unbeaten in nine straight MLS home matches (6-0-3), per the club preview.
    • Vancouver lead the West and have the stronger Elo rating: 1623 versus Colorado 1445.
  2. Both Teams To Score NO2 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsBoth Nets, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Nets
    • Colorado scoring read 73.5% (1.33 blended xG from 1.35 opp-adjusted xGF and Vancouver 1.31 xGA; 10-match coverage).
    • Vancouver scoring read 70.9% (1.24 blended xG from 1.57 opp-adjusted xGF and Colorado 0.90 xGA; 10-match coverage).
    • Only 10 xG matches per side; the read is not a long-sample estimate.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair line is 54¢; I shade to a 52% win estimate after accounting for model uncertainty.
    • Combined expected goals are only 2.25, with Colorado 1.24 and Vancouver 1.01.
    • Vancouver's recent rolling profile shows 15.8 shots and 2.8 big chances per match, so their attack can break the clean-sheet angle.
  3. Vancouver Whitecaps
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vancouver's official preview identifies consistent pressure and counterattacking against Colorado's build-from-the-back approach.
    • That is a direct scheme interaction: Vancouver's press can attack the Rapids' first-phase buildup before Colorado establish midfield possession.
    • My 46.5% win estimate is above the 43¢ contract cost, despite the match's three-way draw risk.
    • Colorado are unbeaten in their last nine home MLS matches (6-0-3) and have recorded 10 clean sheets.
  4. Draw (Tie)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI attacking-xG is Colorado 1.81 vs Vancouver 2.10, only a 0.29 gap; both lineups posted at 5:50 PM PT.
    • My probabilities are Colorado 40.0%, draw 28.5%, Vancouver 31.5%; Pinnacle three-way devig is Colorado 30.3%, draw 27.2%, Vancouver 42.5%.
    • The low total and balanced control profile support a higher draw share than the sharp baseline.
    • Colorado's home record is 6-3-1 while Vancouver is 5-3-2 away; either side can convert its venue edge.
  5. Match total goals under 2.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted blend gives Colorado 1.30, Vancouver 1.22, and 2.51 expected goals versus the 2.5 market rung.
    • Both PPDA readings are aggressive (Colorado 10.76, Vancouver 10.92), while field tilt is .529/.589; that tempo signal nudges toward an over.
  6. Game total under 2.5 goals
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado's home expected-goals-against rate is 0.90; Vancouver's away rate is 1.31.
    • The Polymarket US No contract on the Over 2.5 market costs 46c against a 58% own estimate.
    • Vancouver's away attack averages 1.88 xG and 18 goals in the 10-match away sample.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Vancouver Whitecaps NO above 1.5 goalsFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is 10/10; oppadj xG rates are Colorado xGF/xGA 1.35/0.87 and Vancouver 1.57/1.24.
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Colorado 1.24 and Vancouver 1.01; independent cross-check puts Vancouver 2+ near 11%.
    • 2026 MLS empirical distribution: Vancouver-type away 2+ margin occurred 54/451 times, 12.0%; NO fair read is roughly 88%.
    • No official XIs; listed absences and late lineup news could materially change Vancouver's attacking rate.

Questions

Who won Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Colorado Rapids?

Colorado Rapids won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.