FinalSpectrum Stadium · Orlando
New York City
2–2Final
Orlando City
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| OC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOrlando City spread NO above 1.5 goals 76¢
Why Handicap likes it: Pinnacle posts only -0.25, not this exact -1.5 rung; no independent sharp same-rung quote exists.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −78% return
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjusted scoring/conceding blend gives roughly 1.43 Orlando + 1.56 NYC goals, or 2.99 total.
- Model rate pair is Orlando 1.48 and NYC 1.68; Poisson P(0, 3 goals) is about 61%.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3.25 goals with Under +103, consistent with value on a 3.5-goal under.
- Both listed starting keepers are out and official XIs are still unknown; replacement quality may change the goal environment.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pressing tilt is mildly hot (PPDA 13.63 Orlando, 13.44 NYC); mixed field tilt (.452/.476) warrants only a +0.05 tempo adjustment, fair total 3.03.
- Poisson translation of the 3.03 build gives 64.1% under 3.5 versus ProphetX's 54.13c; quarter-Kelly output is 5.4% of bankroll before risk scaling.
- Pinnacle same-rung 3.5 prices devig to 53.5% under; the model's projection, not a claimed market arb, supplies the edge.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side; the sample is at the minimum qualifying depth and carries a wide error bar.
- Orlando City spread NO above 1.5 goals+32%Won
Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts only -0.25, not this exact -1.5 rung; no independent sharp same-rung quote exists.
- lambda_home 1.48 and lambda_away 1.68; both have 10 xG-covered matches, and the specific-rung cross-check estimates Orlando 2+ goals margin near 16%, so NO near 84%.
- Dixon-Coles -0.5 AH fields are Orlando 0.34 and New York City 0.42; MLS 2026 has 119/451 draws and 67/451 matches at 3+ absolute margin.
- Official XIs are not posted; Orlando lists Robin Jansson out, while New York City lists multiple absences, and late lineup news can move the scoring rates.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - New York City to win−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Tailgate
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model gives New York City 41.9% to win; Tailgate away price is 35¢, implying 35.0%.
- NYC's opponent-adjusted xG attack is 1.15 away versus Orlando's 1.96 adjusted xG allowed at home.
- Orlando's home form is strong, but NYC's away points total understates the model's matchup projection.
- NYC has nine listed absences and both projected lineups remain expected, not confirmed.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Orlando scoring read ~77% (1.61 attack xG vs 1.34 NYC defensive xG-against); NYC ~79% (1.15 vs 1.98), each with 10 xG matches.
- Those independent reads imply BTTS YES ~61% and NO ~39%; this is a symmetric high-scoring-side read, not the desk's classic asymmetric BTTS-NO case.
- Both teams' scoring probabilities are high, so one open-game script or a single defensive error can produce YES.
Questions
Who won New York City vs. Orlando City?
Orlando City won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.