FinalChildren's Mercy Park · Kansas City
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUST | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| SK | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAustin @ Sporting KC under 3.5 total goals 56¢
Why Soccer Default Picks likes it: Combined attacking xG rates are 2.50 (Sporting KC 1.57, Austin 0.93), below the 3.5-goal line.
Soccer Default PicksDown 1% this season · 223 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-5 on this game · −17% return
- Both teams to score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model BTTS-No probability is 40.7%, driven by Austin's 0.93 xG per match and 1.82 xGA.
- Austin scored 13 goals in its last 10 away-side fixtures; Sporting KC averaged 1.6 big chances created in its recent window.
- Sporting KC's home xG is 1.57 and its defense allows 2.03 xG, so Austin can score through a weak back line.
Both Nets- Sporting KC scoring read ≈81% (10 xG matches), using 1.54 oppadj xGF against Austin's 1.82 xGA.
- Austin scoring read ≈78% (10 xG matches), using 0.95 oppadj xGF against Sporting KC's 2.03 xGA; this is a moderately symmetric scoring setup, not the asymmetric BTTS-NO archetype.
- Sporting KC's 2.03 xGA and Austin's 1.50 oppadj xGA leave both attacks plausible; one early goal can open the match.
- Austin @ Sporting KC under 3.5 total goals+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined attacking xG rates are 2.50 (Sporting KC 1.57, Austin 0.93), below the 3.5-goal line.
- Sporting KC is 1-3-1 over its last five; Austin is 0-3-2, with both sides carrying poor recent form.
- The captured board makes under 3.5 roughly 54.5% after de-vigging, while my conservative total-goals estimate is 66%.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed, and both clubs show substantial roster turnover since the prior meeting.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 1H ladder fits a Poisson mean of 0.75 goals; the full ladder fits 2.60.
- MLS supplied 250 first-half goals / 577 total across 197 recent matches: 43.3%.
- That split maps the full mean to 1.13 first-half goals, 0.38 above the 1H quote.
- Austin-Sporting KC is live at 26' and 0-0; two goals are required before halftime.
- Total goals under 3.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 xG-backed matches each: opp-adjusted blend gives Sporting KC 1.52 and Austin 1.37 expected goals, fair total 2.89.
- A 2.89-goal Poisson translation gives 67.1% under 3.5; Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 57.1%, close to the independent build.
- Both sides have 7 rest days; recent five-match goal margins are negative for Sporting KC (-1.0) and Austin (-1.2), supporting directional coherence.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, so the 2.89 estimate has a wide error bar.
- Match total goals under 3.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Sporting KC 1.54 xGF and 1.79 xGA; Austin 0.95 xGF and 1.50 xGA, with 10 gp_with_xg for each side.
- Kalshi's live 0.5, 5.5 ladder implies roughly 3.3, 3.4 expected goals, above the 2.89 projection; this is a projection fade of an internally priced venue, not a sharp-book comparison.
- model under 3.5 probability is about 64% after uncertainty, versus 57¢ to buy NO.
- REFERENCE only: Pinnacle is posted at an off-rung 3.25, so no independent sharp 3.5 reference exists.
- Game total under 3.5 goals+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 2.97 expected goals; independent Poisson gives roughly 65% for 0-3 goals.
- Sporting KC allows 2.03 xG per match, while Austin creates only 0.93 xG per match.
- Austin's away form is 2-5-3 with 13 goals scored in 10; Sporting KC is 2-1-7 at home.
- Sporting KC's 2.03 home xGA creates multi-goal variance even against Austin's weaker attack.
Show all 9 picks
- Austin spread NO above 1.5 goals+18%Won
Taken at 85¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sporting KC/Austin Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.71/1.26; Austin 2+ goal-margin probability cross-check is about 12%.
- Coverage is full for this read: 10 xG matches for each side; raw matchup inputs include Sporting KC home xG 1.57 and Austin away xG 0.93.
- MLS 2026 empirical shape: away teams won by 2+ in 55/453 (12.1%); 291/453 matches finished within one goal.
- No independent same-rung sharp reference; self-reference caps this at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- TIMING. ProphetX over probability moved from 44.25c to 43.48c by 2:43pm PT while the 3.5 line held. Board as_of_pt 2026-10-24T14:47:20-07:00.
- Most likely loss: Austin-Sporting KC finishes with three or fewer goals.
- Austin both teams to score No−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sporting KC’s opponent-adjusted xG against is 1.79; Austin’s opponent-adjusted xG creation is only 0.95.
- Austin’s last 10 away matches produced 13 goals, while the model projects only 1.26 Austin goals.
- Polymarket US prices BTTS No at 33¢, creating roughly a 7-point probability edge before venue fees.
- Sporting KC’s 1.54 opponent-adjusted home attacking xG can produce a goal without Austin scoring.
Questions
Who won Austin vs. Sporting KC?
Austin won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.