FinalSports Illustrated Stadium · Harrison
Inter Miami
0–2Final
New York RB
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch under 3.5 total goals 45¢
Why Early Whistle likes it: Adjusted scoring/conceding blend gives NYRB 1.40 and Miami 1.52 expected goals; total 2.92.
Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-0 on this game · +149% return
- Both Teams To Score NO+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- NYRB scoring 76.2%; Inter Miami 80.2%, from 10-match opp-adjusted xG/defense blends.
- Independent-side product gives BTTS YES 61.1%, hence NO 38.9%; this is not a combined-goals shortcut.
- Only 10 xG matches per team; Poisson independence and the blend can miss scoring correlation.
Number Earned- Warehouse model gives BTTS No 36.6% from 1.45 home and 1.72 away expected goals.
- DraftKings +250 and Pinnacle +253 also imply a market No probability near 27%, supporting a cheap BTTS-No price.
- All three recorded head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring; average total goals was 5.0.
- Match under 3.5 total goals+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjusted scoring/conceding blend gives NYRB 1.40 and Miami 1.52 expected goals; total 2.92.
- Warehouse model's own lambda pair is 1.45 / 1.71, total 3.17, still below the 3.5 threshold.
- Kalshi prices Over 3.5 at 55¢; buying the complementary Under at 45¢ offers value against both rate estimates.
- The sharp 3.75 anchor is meaningfully higher than the adjusted-rate total, so the model could be missing matchup or lineup information.
- Under 3.5 total goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined attacking xG is 3.06 (New York RB 1.39, Inter Miami 1.67); Poisson baseline gives 63.3% under 3.5.
- Polymarket US offers the under at 47¢ while the captured 3.5-goal board leans over; the disagreement creates the actionable price gap.
- Both starting XIs were confirmed at 1:40 PM PDT, limiting late-rotation uncertainty.
- Four or more goals beats this ticket; Miami's confirmed XI includes Luis Suárez and New York has recent scoring volatility.
- Inter Miami under 3.5 total goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8-game opp-adjusted xG window; blended matchup estimate is 3.03 goals (NYRB 1.43 attack/1.59 conceded, Miami 1.56 attack/1.49 conceded).
- Both sides show transition-positive pressure (PPDA 10.49 and 11.32; directness ratios .555 and .567); modest +0.15 tilt puts fair total near 3.18.
- Only 10 games with xG for each team; this is MODERATE coverage, so the 3.18 fair total has a meaningful error bar.
- Inter Miami spread NO above 1.5 goals+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles goal-difference read gives Miami >1.5 goals about 23.1%; therefore NO wins about 76.9%.
- MLS 2026 sample (100 matches): 0-goal margins 28%, 1-goal margins 33%, 2-goal margins 24%; 3+ margins only 15%.
- No official XI yet; Inter Miami has Tyler Hall, Tadeo Allende, and Mateo Silvetti listed out, while New York RB has AJ Marcucci out.
- Match total goals under 3.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- xG read is 2.92 goals (NYRB 1.40, Miami 1.52).
- Kalshi's 55.5% Over 3.5 rung is Poisson-equivalent to roughly 3.9 goals, above the 2.92 projection.
- Official XIs are not posted; late lineup changes can materially alter attacking quality.
Questions
Who won Inter Miami vs. New York RB?
New York RB won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.