FinalToyota Stadium · Frisco
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DALL | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total under 3.5 goals 56¢
Why Early Whistle likes it: Opponent-adjusted rates are 1.43/1.62 for Dallas and 1.25/1.25 for SJ Earthquakes.
Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −8% return
- SJ Earthquakes to win−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Cohort mapping is clean: global SJ win positions confirm the exact 90-minute SJ moneyline; current-vs-average prices moved only about 2%.
- Coherence is mostly aligned: model and cohort favor SJ; Pinnacle disagrees, while recent movement is mixed rather than uniformly against.
- Pinnacle remains a meaningful contrary reference: Dallas -118 versus SJ +297, so the sharp market does not validate the projection.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model win probability is 40.9% versus a 24.0% contract price before fees.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors San Jose's attack matchup: 1.26 away xG for against Dallas's 1.62 home xG allowed.
- Dallas has a 71.9-point Elo edge and the sharp reference prices the home side at -118.
- Match total under 3.5 goals+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates are 1.43/1.62 for Dallas and 1.25/1.25 for SJ Earthquakes.
- The model's own rate pair is lambda Dallas 1.33 and lambda SJ Earthquakes 1.50, totaling 2.83 goals.
- That rate pair implies roughly 68% for under 3.5; Kalshi NO on Over 3.5 costs 56¢.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; a late attacking or goalkeeper change can move the total materially.
- Dallas spread NO above 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent lambda cross-check puts Dallas winning by 2+ near 15%; conservative NO estimate is 78%.
- MLS 2026 sample: goal differences 0/1/2 account for 61.4%; 3+ margins account for only 10.6%.
- Expected lineups were last refreshed October 22, not confirmed; listed departures could materially change attacking or goalkeeper strength.
- Match total goals under 3.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Both Teams To Score NO+186%Won
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-match geometric-mean read gives Dallas ~74% and SJ Earthquakes ~77% to score; implied BTTS YES is ~57%.
- This is a near-symmetric moderate-scoring case, not the asymmetric weak-attacker/elite-defense setup; the NO value comes from both probabilities being below the market's combined read.
- Pinnacle BTTS NO +176 devigs to roughly 34.9%; the edge class is PROJECTION, not sharp-price agreement.
- Pinnacle's ~34.9% NO probability agrees with the 35¢ Kalshi price; the estimated ~43% NO probability is a model disagreement.
- SJ Earthquakes 2-way to win−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected XIs are usable only as a caveat, not a confirmed schedule-decay input; this is the wake's one permitted off-thesis ticket.
- Both XIs remain expected, not confirmed; late rotation or availability news could materially change the projection.
Questions
Who won SJ Earthquakes vs. Dallas?
Dallas won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.