FinalStade Saputo · Montreal
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASH | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CF | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch under 3.5 total goals 62¢
Why Early Whistle likes it: That rate pair gives approximately 69% probability of 0, 3 goals versus Kalshi's 62¢ under price.
Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-4 on this game · +43% return
- Total goals under 2.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Haul, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Long Haul- both clubs have 7 recorded rest days; derived Nashville travel is approximately 1,523 km, so the brief's under-4-day travel-decay trigger fails.
- Both XIs were confirmed at 9:43am PDT; this removes the unconfirmed-lineup gate, though it does not create a Long Haul decay pillar.
- No verified short-rest, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shaped edge supports this play; it is capped at LEAN.
Deep Book- REFERENCE is incomplete. Moneyline and +1 spread flow are balanced, so this is a one-board order-flow read.
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-24T07:54:43-07:00. Price band and $300 size gate pass.
- Most likely loss: three or more goals; model lambdas total 3.00 and over 2.5 is the model favorite.
- Match under 3.5 total goals+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- That rate pair gives approximately 69% probability of 0, 3 goals versus Kalshi's 62¢ under price.
- Model's own λ pair is 0.90/2.11; it also keeps the 3.5-goal under live at roughly 65%.
- Pinnacle's sharp 3.0 total, with under -110, anchors toward a lower-scoring game.
- Nashville's opponent-adjusted attack rate is 1.79 and Montreal's adjusted concession rate is 1.59.
- CF Montréal spread +1−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as of 2026-10-24 09:46:12 PDT. Binary spread probabilities sum to 1.02.
- Total 3.5 flow leans over, not under; Draw YES is heavy. Cross-market coherence is incomplete.
- Nashville SC spread NO above 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- match sample: away by 1 was 13.3%, by 2 8.3%, and 3+ 5.0%; margin mass is lumpy.
- Nashville's 2.11 expected goals can still produce a two-goal win; one finishing spike defeats the NO.
- Elias Saad over 0.5 shots on target−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 9 shots on target across his last 10 games; 0.9 per game versus a 0.5 projection
- Three recorded SOT in his last five appearances, including 2 in the latest 42-minute substitute outing
- CF Montréal allow 5.8 shots on target per match over the last 10, while Nashville average 2.08 goals in the matchup model
- Two of Saad's last five SOT entries are unrecorded, so the recent hit rate is not fully observable
- Match total goals under 2.5+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts an adjacent 3.0-goal total at -106/-106; it is not treated as the same 2.5 rung.
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Montréal home xGF 1.07 and xGA 1.59; Nashville away xGF 1.79 and xGA 1.13, each with 10 xG matches.
- Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; the feed lists Zidane Yáñez out for Nashville and Bode Hidalgo out for Montréal.
Show all 12 picks
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both XIs were confirmed at 9:40 AM PDT; Nashville's starting-XI attacking xG is 2.56 versus Montréal's 1.12, a +1.45 delta.
- Nashville start Sam Surridge at 0.67 xG/90, Hany Mukhtar at 0.54 and Elias Saad at 0.44; Montréal's known XI profile is materially lighter.
- Nashville's away xG form is 2.08 per match versus Montréal's 1.17 at home, supporting a game in which the away attack can drive four goals.
- Most likely loss: Nashville control without a fourth goal, such as 0-2, 0-3 or 1-2.
- Match total under 3.5 goals+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Novig
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects 3.00 expected goals and approximately 64.6% for under 3.5.
- Nashville's away xGA is 1.13; Montréal's home xGF is only 1.17.
- Nashville averages 2.08 xGF per match, so its attack can break the low-total script.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Venue ladder is internally coherent: under 2.5 at 37.59¢, under 3.5 at 60.63¢, under 4.5 at 78.95¢; the model's exact-three mass is roughly 22%.
- The ticket loses at 4+ goals; the fitted distribution leaves roughly 35.3% in that tail.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw xG rates point to a 3.00-goal total, but the Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment still gives a modest under edge at the posted rung.
- Expected XIs were refreshed by the warehouse at 10/22 11:00pm PDT; no later confirmed striker or goalkeeper change is recorded before filing.
- The 2.53-point projection edge is small, so finishing variance dominates and model miscalibration can erase it.
- Nashville SC spread NO above 2.5 goals+30%Won
Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - Both teams to score No+115%Won
Taken at +115 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 47.5% fair probability from the matchup xG model; fair price about +111.
- Pinnacle's devigged BTTS-No probability is 44.4%; DraftKings offers +115.
- CF Montréal has only 1.17 xG per match and 1.07 opponent-adjusted xG at home.
- The model still gives BTTS Yes 52.6%; the edge is only about 3.1 probability points.
Questions
Who won Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal?
Nashville SC won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.