FinalShell Energy Stadium · Houston
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| HOUS | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-5 on this game · −100% return
- Dallas to win−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Tailgate
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model makes Dallas 39.8% to win versus 27.5% de-vigged market probability.
- Dallas is 6-2-2 away; Houston is 2-5-3 at home in the venue splits.
- Houston's home draw rate is high: five draws in 10 home matches create three-way-market variance.
Long Haul- Confirmed XIs are posted: 11 starters for Dallas and 11 for Houston Dynamo; model lambdas are Dallas 1.41 versus Houston 1.26.
- Equal three-day rest and roughly 404 km derived Dallas-to-Houston travel leave this as a small model lean, not a structural Long Haul spot.
- The estimated 1.07 percentage-point edge is thin, so ordinary match variance dominates.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson around 2.77 gives 69.9% for 0, 3 goals versus the 68¢ NO price.
- Secondary tempo check is not extreme: PPDA 16.80/13.64 and field tilt .390/.452.
- Both coverage samples are below 12 matches, and the estimated edge is only about 1.9 probability points.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blended per-side scoring read is Houston 74% and Dallas 77%, a symmetric both-sides-score profile but below venue YES pricing.
- Coverage is 9 Houston xG matches and 10 Dallas xG matches; oppadj xGF is 1.06 and 1.22, while opponent xG-against is 1.73 and 1.77.
- Both teams project near three-in-four to score, so one goal from each side is the most direct loss path.
- Dallas spread YES 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inputs: Houston expected goals 1.26; Dallas expected goals 1.41. Raw xG rates are HOU 1.18/1.77 and DAL 1.38/1.73.
- MLS 2026 distribution is lumpy: 113/436 draws, 97/436 home one-goal wins, 71/436 one-goal away wins, and 58/436 home two-goal wins.
- The broad MLS sample has away wins by 2+ only 50/436 (11.5%), so the matchup model may overstate Dallas's upper tail.
Questions
Who won Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo?
Houston Dynamo won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.