FinalSpectrum Stadium · Orlando
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OC | 2 | 2 | 4 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return
- DC United to win−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- confirmed XIs are in; no pre-lineup capture is being claimed, so this is not a TIMING play.
- DC United's confirmed XI produces 1.91 attacking xG versus 1.66 for its 10-match usual-XI baseline: +0.25.
- Most likely loss: the match draws; a draw is a loss on ProphetX's 2-way moneyline.
Number Earned- Opponent-adjusted xG is nearly level: Orlando 1.50 for, DC United 1.54 for; both defenses allow about 1.73-1.75.
- The warehouse model makes DC United a slight win-probability favorite, sharply opposing the market's Orlando-first stance.
- Only 8 of 11 DC United starters and 9 of 11 Orlando starters were confirmed in the preview; projected lineups can change.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC oppadj xGF 1.54 and Orlando oppadj xGA 1.73, both with 10 gp_with_xg, imply 1.64 away goals.
- Computed expected total is 3.26 versus a Kalshi-ladder implied total of roughly 3.85; projected under-3.5 probability is about 59%.
- Pinnacle's 3.75 quote is off-rung, so it is not used as an independent same-line reference; band LEAN.
- Only 10 gp_with_xg per side, below the brief's 12-game top tier; the roughly 0.59-goal disagreement is model-sensitive.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: blended per-side xG gives Orlando scoring 80.3% and DC United 80.6%; BTTS-YES 64.7%, NO 35.3%.
- Symmetric case: both attacks face defenses allowing about 1.75 xGA; this is not an asymmetric shutout setup.
- Coverage is 10 xG matches for each side, with 10 competitive matches and no friendlies in the window.
- Dixon-Coles cross-check is 72.9% BTTS-YES / 27.1% NO, an 8.2-point disagreement with the primary 64.7% YES estimate.
- DC United spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no independent sharp full-match -1.5 price; the captured alternative spread was off-line at -1.
- DC lost several regular contributors; Orlando home strength and market's -160 moneyline may capture information xG misses.
- DC United +1−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board pull as_of_pt 2026-10-17T15:38:42-07:00. One-leg ticket.
- The 4.7x spread ratio is below the 10x primary threshold; this is a half-size LEAN.
Questions
Who won DC United vs. Orlando City?
Orlando City won 4-1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.