FinalAtlanta Stadium · Atlanta
Inter Miami
3–1Final
Atlanta United
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IM | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| AU | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonInter Miami −1 spread 39¢
Why Standing Order likes it: Model corroborates direction: away win 0.51 versus home 0.23 and draw 0.26.
Standing OrderDown 2% this season · 104 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +19% return
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted matchup blend gives Atlanta 1.19 and Miami 1.51 expected goals, 2.70 total.
- Independent Dixon-Coles rates are 1.00 home and 1.62 away; its 2.63 total implies about 73% under 3.5.
- Kalshi's 3.5-goal ladder is monotone and liquid enough here; buying NO costs 47c versus my 71% estimate.
- Feature inputs are point-in-time through October 14 and xG coverage is only nine matches on the thinner side.
- Inter Miami −1 spread+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model corroborates direction: away win 0.51 versus home 0.23 and draw 0.26.
- No sharp quote exists at -1; Pinnacle's +0.5 spread is a different rung and is not comparable.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 91 of 225 recent MLS goals arrived by halftime: 40.4%; full ladder implies 1H mean 1.49.
- Poisson fit to the clean 1H ladder gives mean 1.74: 0.25 goals above the measured split.
- Quoted Over 1.5 probability is 52.5%; split-reconciled probability is about 44.0%, an 8.5-point gap.
- The 40.4% split uses 225 goals across 67 goal-bearing recent fixtures and may regress.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Atlanta scoring read 71.6% (9 xG matches), Inter Miami 78.5% (9 xG matches); product implies BTTS YES 56.2%, NO 43.8%.
- Asymmetric lean: Atlanta is the lower attack read (1.08 opp-adjusted xG-for); Inter Miami's defense allows 1.44 xGA, so this is not a clean-sheet lock.
- Only 9 xG-backed matches per side; the sample is real but still vulnerable to opponent and roster-composition noise.
- Inter Miami −1+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days - Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Atlanta 1.08 for / 1.34 against; Inter Miami 1.69 for / 1.29 against.
- Only 9 xG matches per side, below the 12-game top-band threshold; model uncertainty is material.
Show all 7 picks
- Atlanta United spread NO 1.5+14%Won
Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MLS's latest 120 finals had 0-goal margins 30.8%, 1-goal home margins 18.3%, 2-goal home margins 15.0%, and 3+ home margins 10.0%, a lumpy ladder rather than smooth decay.
- This is a LEAN, self-referenced claim: no independent sharp 1.5 handicap price exists for this exact rung.
Questions
Who won Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United?
Inter Miami won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.